Scarlet Leigh said: "I am having massive flash backs here of the season of DEH vs. Comet vs. Come From Away vs. whoever that fourth one was but it didn't matter cus it was between the other three anyway. And that's what I think it is at the moment, a 3 horse race that almost parallels that race back then.You got your big, loud, colorful good time with some deeper tones left behind in the end. WAS Comet. NOW Moulin Rouge.You got your buzzed about out of town darling that came out of seemingly no where and from an unexpected place. WAS Come From Away. NOW Six.You got your highly praised off Broadway indie transfer that captured the critics then and will likely do so again. WAS DEH. NOW Girl From...REALLY? Great Comet was much more than spectacle. It's much more of an oddball show with an unusual score compared to the pop-hit laden Moulin Rouge. Come From Away and Six appeal to completely different demographics regardless of whether they both got buzz from out of town. Dear Evan Hansen could not be more of a contemporary musical theater show while GFTNC is definitely not. These shows are not similar at all.
I agree on these five:SixJagged Little PillMoulin RougeFlying Over SunsetGirl From The North CountryFlying Over Sunset is of course the big wild card, but if that doesn't wow I anticipate Girl From the North Country taking the W. It's kind of a repeat of 2018 and Band's Visit winning despite very mixed audience perception - the rave reviews set it apart, and I expect that the Bway transfer will be as well-reviewed as the Off-Bway production. If it's not GFTNC, I think Moulin Rouge will take it based on a sum of all parts. I wish I could be more excited about any of these this year. Holding out hope that Six is great, though I unexpectedly loathed the Oliviers performance on YouTube so I'm wary. (Also, this is a hilariously early discussion as usual. Watch Diana sweep!)
My prediction for Best Musical 2020 would be Jagged Little Pill. It is the first juke box musical I have seen in which it really didn't feel like a juke box musical. It felt like the songs were written for the musical and thus worked greatly. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/05/theater/jagged-little-pill-review-broadway.html It has a similar feel to Dear Evan Hansen. The music of course is from one of the most critically acclaimed albums of the 90's. Girl From The North Country could take it. It definitely isn't a traditional musical which is the way most of the past few winners have been. Bob Dylan's music is critically acclaimed and excellently presented in this show even though I didn't care for the story. I haven't seen Diana but have doubts it will be really good. Six is barely a musical more a concert and thus doubt it will take best musical. I didn't love Moulin Rouge. It is mostly a mashup of pop hits. It is all style with very little substance. It may be a hit but I can't see Tony voters awarding it best musical. Mrs Doubtfire will most likely be like Tootsie last year. It will probably get nominated (I have heard the music is pretty decent) but won't win.
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