Disney Theatricals

Posted: 5/21/19 at 11:15am

Was there ever a time when three Disney shows were running at the same time? It seems like "Frozen" is just limping along (rightfully so, it's dreadful) but I went back to "Tarzan" and "Little Mermaid" grosses, and though it was ten years ago they rarely broke a million.

Wondering if Disney will make like Forrest Gump carrying the wounded solider on their back ("Frozen" just to dominate Broadway? Is "Hercules" happening? "Moana"?

[MollyJeanneMusic]

Posted: 5/21/19 at 11:20am

Mary Poppins, Lion King, and Little Mermaid were open at the same time in early 2009, as were Mary, Lion, and Newsies in late 2012.

[ElphabaGoodman]

Posted: 5/21/19 at 11:56am

There was a time in 2006 and 2007 when Beauty and the Beast, The Lion King, Tarzan and Mary Poppins were all running at the same time

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 5/21/19 at 11:56am

From November 2006-July 2007, Disney actually had FOUR shows running simultaneously: Beauty, Lion King, Poppins, and Tarzan. In 2008/9, Poppins, Mermaid, and Lion King also overlapped, and in 2012/13 so did Poppins, Lion King, and Newsies.

I have to believe that Disney has come to the realization that they can't sustain more than 2 major titles at a time. Every time they've had more than 2, the third has been either a flop (Tarzan, Mermaid), a show at the end of its run, or Newsies which was less family-oriented. They may be cannibalizing themselves by having so much product out in the market.

It's also interesting that Lion King and Aladdin will have remakes this summer, and Frozen 2 will come out at Thanksgiving. If just one were coming out, I'd guess that would help the box office (like the Phantom and Chicago movies), but all 3 will still be competing with each other.

[bdn223]

Posted: 5/21/19 at 12:16pm

The last time Disney was able to successfully run 3 shows simultaneously with all shows not closing within that year was from 2000-2004 when The Lion King, Beauty and the Beast, and Aida  were all running. There should be an asterisk for this time period, as Aida was not sold/marketed as a Disney musical  and was simply produced by Disney theatrical.

 

Frozen's grosses are very much in line with Mary Poppins in terms of both capacity and sales potential %. So don't say the show is limping along. Most producers only dream about having a musical grossing consistently over $1M a week (with the lone exceptions being Motown, and Spiderman Turn off the Dark, whose weekly nuts were around $1M). There is also no way Frozen's costs more then $900k a week to run, and is likely closer to $800k as Disney may have lofty expectation in terms of sales, but they are known to have their costs down to a science. If we take the higher estimate of a running cost of $900k,Frozen has had a gross profit of $48.7 Million dollars, but even if we estimate a running cost of $1M the show has had a gross profit of $42M. Haters are going to hate, but at this point I can say with 99.9% certainty that Frozen is a hit.  Frozen may not be a runaway hit along the lines of The Lion King Or Beauty and the Beast, but it is also not a failure along the lines of The Little Mermaid nor Tarzan.  Its grosses are in line with Mary Poppins at this point in its run, with its first year's grosses were significantly higher. Frozen appears to be turning into a sleeper hit, which we haven't had on Broadway since the 2015-2016 season with Waitress and School of Rock. The later averaged 68% gross potential for the first 2 years of its 3 year run, and the former averaging 84% of its gross potential for the first 2 years of its runs excluding the limited runs of Sara  Bareilles. I know people have grown accustom to shows only being considered "hits" if they are playing to SRO crowds, and ones that don't quickly close, but that is much more of a recent phenomenon.  Beautiful only played to SRO crowds for 6 months of its first year on the boards, and it is now approaching its 6th year on Broadway. Avenue Q and Rock of Ages never played to SRO crowds and both ran for about 6 years. I can say with some certainty that unless the grosses plummet in the Fall, Frozen will be around through at least March of 2020, as there is no way Disney would close Frozen prior to Frozen 2 opening in theaters which should goose its grosses. Will it run for 6 years at this point? I can't say, but I will say at this point if give the show a 90% odds of playing at least 2 years on Broadway and 60% odds of making it to 1000 performances.  At this point though, Frozen  is a "hit", but what kind of "hit" it is only time will tell.

[DoTheDood]

Posted: 5/21/19 at 12:18pm

This also is more important because of the BatB revival, like if they can't have 3 shows running, a 4th show will really drop their profits. I really doubt they will do anything with The Lion King, so either Aladdin or Frozen have to close before that opens. And then if Hercules is transferring (which is a complete guess at this point, but Disney is at the very least thinking of it as a possibility) both shows will need to close beforehand. 

[bdn223]

Posted: 5/21/19 at 12:35pm

DoTheDood said: "This also is more important because of the BatB revival, like if they can't have 3 shows running, a 4th show will really drop their profits. I really doubt they will do anything with The Lion King, so either Aladdin or Frozen have to close before that opens. And then if Hercules is transferring (which is a complete guess at this point, but Disney is at the very least thinking of it as a possibility) both shows will need to close beforehand."

Part of me wonders if Beauty and the Beast is being produced for the reopening of the Palace in 2021/2022. Its also highly unlikely for Hercules to open within the next season even if its a hit at central park considering the show is only playing a week, and will have to be substantially altered for Broadway since it it going to be a public works production with an ensemble of over 40+ community theater members. At this point though, I don't think the Disney will be altering their current line up until the 2020-2021 season at earliest. 

[DoTheDood]

Posted: 5/21/19 at 12:51pm

bdn223 said: "Part of me wonders if Beauty and the Beast is being produced for the reopening of the Palace in 2021/2022. Its also highly unlikely for Hercules to open within the next season even if its a hit at central park considering the show is only playing a week, and will have to be substantially altered for Broadway since it it going to be a public works production with an ensemble of over 40+ community theater members. At this point though, I don't think the Disney will be altering their current line up until the 2020-2021 season at earliest."

I do think BatB going to the Palace once it reopens makes sense, but isn't that coming up production connected to the Paper Mill production happening this summer? Maybe that was just an assumption on this board, but it makes sense. Plus, BatB was announced as like a 25th anniversary thing, which isn't going to be super relevant in 2021. Maybe the announcement was the celebration of Disney's 25 years on Broadway, but idk.

[bdn223]

Posted: 5/21/19 at 1:07pm

DotheDood The Beauty and the Beast revival was announced in one of the many puff pieces on Disney Theatricals 25th anniversary. I think it was simply mentioned in the Dateline feature, but there was no mention or timeline specifically because Schumacher didn't want to be rushed into something that wasn't ready for the spotlight. *cough*cough*Frozen being rushed to Broadway by Bob Iger*cough*cough* He said something similar in his interview with Broadway.com, along with the mentioning of some new Aida production being in the works. It won't a a "insert year" anniversary production along the line of this years revival of Oklahoma being brought to Broadway as part of R&H estate's 75th anniversary push for the show, On the Town's 2014 revival being sold at the 60th anniversary production, the 2009 Hair revival originating at a 40th anniversary concert, or the 2008 South Pacific revival being considered the 60th anniversary production.  

[BritCrit]

Posted: 5/21/19 at 1:15pm

bdn223 said: "DoTheDood said: "This also is more important because of the BatB revival, like if they can't have 3 shows running, a 4th show will really drop their profits. I really doubt they will do anything with The Lion King, so either Aladdin or Frozen have to close before that opens. And then if Hercules is transferring (which is a complete guess at this point, but Disney is at the very least thinking of it as a possibility) both shows will need to close beforehand."

Part of me wonders ifBeauty and theBeastis being produced for the reopening ofthe Palace in 2021/2022. Its also highly unlikely forHerculesto open within the next season even if its a hit at central park considering the show is only playing a week, and will have to be substantially altered for Broadway since it it going to be a public works production with an ensemble of over 40+ community theater members. At this point though, I don't think the Disney will be altering their current line up until the 2020-2021 season at earliest."

Even if Hercules is a success, I think it will more likely become a smaller-scale Disney Theatrical like Hunchback. You don't have to make it to Broadway to be a hit...

Beauty and the Beast making it back to Broadway in 2020/21 (Maybe it could be a Summer 2020 opening)  is a distinct possibility, but Disney may wait to see how Mary Poppins does in the West End in order to have a clearer idea of whether or not a major revival can be a success. 

We also need to take The Princess Bride into account. If that is ready for Spring 2021, it will probably replace Aladdin or Frozen...

[BritCrit]

Posted: 5/21/19 at 1:28pm

bdn223 said: 
"Frozen's grosses are very much in line withMary Poppinsin terms of both capacity and sales potential %. So don't say the show is limping along. Most producers only dream about having a musical grossing consistently over $1M a week (with the lone exceptions beingMotown, and Spiderman Turn off the Dark, whose weekly nuts were around $1M). There is also no way Frozen's costs more then $900k a week to run, and is likely closer to $800k as Disney may have lofty expectation in terms of sales, but they are known to have their costs down to a science. If we take the higher estimate of a running cost of $900k,Frozen has had a gross profit of $48.7 Million dollars, but even if we estimate a running cost of $1M the show has had a gross profit of $42M. Haters are going to hate,but at this point I can say with 99.9% certainty thatFrozen is a hit.Frozenmay not be a runaway hit along the lines ofThe Lion King OrBeauty and the Beast, but it is also not a failure along the lines ofThe Little Mermaidnor Tarzan. Its grosses are in line withMary Poppinsat this point in its run, with its first year's grosses were significantly higher.Frozenappears to be turning into a sleeper hit, which we haven't had on Broadway since the 2015-2016 season withWaitressandSchool of Rock.The later averaged 68% gross potential for the first 2 years of its 3 year run, and the former averaging 84% of its gross potential for the first 2 years of its runs excluding the limited runs of Sara Bareilles. I know people have grown accustom to shows only being considered "hits" if they are playing to SRO crowds, and ones that don't quickly close, but that is much more of a recent phenomenon.Beautiful only played to SRO crowds for 6 months of its first year on the boards, and it is now approaching its 6th year on Broadway.Avenue QandRock of Agesnever played to SRO crowds and both ran for about 6 years. I can say with some certainty that unless the grosses plummet in the Fall, Frozen will be around through at least March of 2020, as there is no way Disney would close Frozen prior to Frozen 2 opening in theaters which should goose its grosses. Will it run for 6 years at this point?I can't say, but I will say at this point if give the show a 90% odds of playing at least 2 years on Broadway and 60% odds of making it to 1000 performances.At this point though,Frozenis a "hit", but what kind of "hit" it is only time will tell."

Agree with this. Frozen will likely pick up over the summer, and the Frozen 2 push could help it during the autumn period. However, Frozen has been affected by the "Underwhelming grosses" narrative from the very beginning (remember those articles last summer about how the international transfers could be cancelled?) and seeing it fall out of the Top 10, at the expense of Hadestown and Tootsie is a big kick in the teeth for Disney theatrical (Particularly when the latter is headlined by the actor who voiced the villain in the original Frozen!). I think that Frozen will still be in the Million Dollar Club when the grosses of those two start to decline, but right now, Frozen's record lows give a lot of encouragement to the detractors...

Apparently, Caissie Levy recently said on Twitter that she was contracted until February 2020. I think Frozen is almost guaranteed to make it to this point, but will it still be around when the international rollout begins in Summer 2020? It depends on the next few months...

[JennH]

Posted: 5/22/19 at 11:51am

ElphabaGoodman said: "There was a time in 2006 and 2007 when Beauty and the Beast, The Lion King, Tarzan and Mary Poppins were all running at the same time"

AND Aida. There were legit FIVE Disney musicals running all at once around that time. Granted that didn't last super long, one closed ( Aida, I believe) so that period of 5 running at once lasted maybe only a few months. 

 

[ElphabaGoodman]

Posted: 5/22/19 at 11:52am

JennH said: "ElphabaGoodman said: "There was a time in 2006 and 2007 when Beauty and the Beast, The Lion King, Tarzan and Mary Poppins were all running at the same time"

AND Aida. There were legit FIVE Disney musicals running all at once around that time. Granted that didn't last super long, one closed ( Aida, I believe) so that period of 5 running at once lasted maybe only a few months.

"

Aida closed in 2004, so before Mary Poppins and Tarzan 

[JennH]

Posted: 5/23/19 at 11:55am

ElphabaGoodman said: "JennH said: "ElphabaGoodman said: "There was a time in 2006 and 2007 when Beauty and the Beast, The Lion King, Tarzan and Mary Poppins were all running at the same time"

AND Aida. There were legit FIVE Disney musicals running all at once around that time. Granted that didn't last super long, one closed ( Aida, I believe) so that period of 5 running at once lasted maybe only a few months.

"

Aida closed in 2004, so before Mary Poppins and Tarzan"

Oh YEP. I actually had to go dig a little, you're right. Only four. What I WAS remembering, and remembering incorrectly at that, was that their website itself had five listed ( I thought one was Aida as you can see) but I DO remember there were five listed on the Disney website at the time because I recall thinking how crazy that was. But it was BnB, LK, MP, Tarzan, and Little Mermaid, that were all listed but Tarzan was on its way out and Little Mermaid was in its way in that same year (2007). 

 

Posted: 5/25/19 at 12:19am

Though “AIDA” was dis year it wasn’t a movie turned musical. But i didn’t realize there were 4-thanks for the time line.

I do believe FROZEN’s running Costs could venture towards the 800 K Mark. I know for a fact The Anna signature dress alone was $100,000. Yes I didn’t add a zero-ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND. That cast is big and they have had a lot of turnover for whatever reason-I don’t classify it as a flop but it’s most certainly not a hit.

Thanks for the facts all!

[CurtainPullDowner]

Posted: 5/25/19 at 3:24pm

DISNEY is now using Broadway as its own try-out street. As long as the show isn't absolutely bleeding money they can keep them open and start the licensing wheels in motion. NEWSIES and even HUNCHBACK have had numerous productions across this country and when FROZEN is released, watch out.  We will never really know how much these shows make on Broadway but they get prestige for just being there. As crummy as, I thought, the sets for FROZEN are. The lighting and other effects are surely pushing up their nuts. As someone said, it has become a science with them and is probably paying people to crunch numbers like mad. To their credit, they are using Broadway talent, creatives, writers, etc. And making for a lot of jobs. And right now they are the only ones able to produce a lot of new Musicals on Broadway.