Tony Night Suprises

[CapnHook]

What do you predict may be some Tony winner surprises this year? (Meaning a plausible surprise win against a 'frontrunner' in a certain category.)

I have two predictions...

1) While I think the frontrunner for REVIVAL OF A PLAY is The Waverly Gallery, I actually think it may end up going to ALL MY SONS. I think the punishment towards Scott Rudin is going to continue, and Roundabout will come out the victor here.

2) I assess the frontrunner of BEST LEADING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL to be Santino Fontana. However, I think enough people will vote for Damon Daunno that could actually allow for Brooks Ashmanskas to take the lead in votes (similarly to how Michael Grief and Rachel Chavkin split, allowing Chris Ashley to sneak through). This one is more of a longshot, but my gut is telling me there will be a surprise with this category.

All of this is really a crapshoot. Way too many variables play into the voting game with all the major award shows, but especially the Tonys. Still, it's fun to predict and it's fun to have surprises. This year, I hope there are many ties!

[SomethingPeculiar]

I agree about All My Sons, though I think it would have less to do with Rudin and more to do with the fact that All My Sons is still running. Sort of like the surprise win for Raisin over 12th Night and Glass Menag in 2014.

Semi-related to your #2, I wonder how much the Tony voters actually LIKE Oklahoma!. It'll win Revival with no trouble, but other awards (Director, Featured Actress, Orchestrations) could be tougher to win if they don't love it. We've already seen some coolness towards it: It got 8 Tony noms when some people were predicting 11-12; it lost the OCC to Fiddler and the Drama League to KMK, though those are older, wacky voting bodies.

I love good Tony surprises, so I'm hoping we'll get a few this year!

[JBroadway]

I think you could be right about Waverley Gallery losing. I enjoyed Waverley Gallery, but I think it has sort of become the frontrunner by default, not because it really blew people away. So its lead will probably be pretty easy to overcome. However, I don't think it will be All My Sons. If Waverley loses, I think it will go to Boys in the Band for a number of reasons. 

(1) I think Boys in the Band made a much bigger splash, and seemed to be much more beloved than All My Sons.

(2) Boys in the Band has managed to keep the attention of the Tony committee despite opening a full year ago, so it's very likely that it has continued to stay on the minds of the voters. (And Waverley Gallery is closed too, so neither have the advantage of being open).

(3) Given that Boys in the Band wasn't Scott Rudin, it fits with your theory too. 

(4) We'll have to see how the rest of the precursors go, but so far Waverley has the edge over All My Sons (Waverley won the Drama League, and All My Sons was not nominated for the Drama Desks). And remember that Boys in the Band was not eligible for the precursors. So that means that the precursors show signs against All My Sons, even without competing against Boys in the Band

[JBroadway]

SomethingPeculiar said: "I agree aboutAll My Sons, though I think it would have less to do with Rudinand more to do with the fact thatAll My Sonsis still running. Sort of like the surprise win for Raisin over 12th Night and Glass Menagin 2014." 

 

Fair, but also consider that Jitney and A View From the Bridge were both closed shows that won in even more recent years. 

[SomethingPeculiar]

JBroadway said: "(3) Given that Boys in the Band wasn't Scott Rudin, it fits with your theory too."

Rudin is actually the second-billed co-producer of Boys in the Band. The producers' names are all on the ballot, so if they're voting against him, they'll still see his name.

But as I said above, I really don't think the voters (which, remember, is an entirely different group of people than the nominators) have anything against Rudin. They might not like him personally, but A LOT of Tony voters have made money off his shows, and he's also employed a lot of people in the industry. Many voters stand to make money off Mockingbird, Music Man, the Dolly tour, and the continued success of Book of Mormon. 

[JBroadway]

SomethingPeculiar said: "JBroadway said: "(3) Given that Boys in the Band wasn't Scott Rudin, it fits with your theory too."

Rudin is actually the second-billed co-producer ofBoys in the Band.The producers' names are all on the ballot, so if they're voting against him, they'll still see his name."

 

Oops! Thanks for pointing that out! 

 

[QueenAlice]

Oh I wouldn’t be surprised one bit to see KISS ME KATE win Best Revival over OKLAHOMA!

The Tony voters are not a young group of people, if that’s your reason for thinking it will win there as it did not at the OCC and the Dramaleague.

[Music_Maker42]

Finnoula Flanagan winning over Celia Keenan-Bolger and Mockingbird getting shut out.

[Wayman_Wong]

''The precursors show signs against 'All My Sons.' ''

FYI, the Outer Critics Circle picked Elaine May (''Waverly Gallery'' ) for Best Actress, but chose ''All My Sons'' for Best Play Revival.

 

[carolinaguy]

I think The Prom may be shut out. Is that an upset? Or just one of those weak season things?

[carolinaguy]

JBroadway said: "I think you could be right about Waverley Gallery losing.I enjoyed Waverley Gallery, but I think it has sort of become the frontrunner by default, not because it really blew people away. So itslead will probably be pretty easy to overcome.However, I don't think it will be All My Sons. If Waverley loses, I think it will go to Boys in the Band for a number of reasons.

(1) Ithink Boys in the Band made a much bigger splash, and seemed to bemuch more belovedthan All My Sons.

(2) Boys in the Band has managed to keep the attention of the Tony committee despite opening a full year ago, so it's very likely that it has continued to stay on the minds of the voters. (And Waverley Gallery is closed too, so neither have the advantage of being open).

(3) Given that Boys in the Band wasn't Scott Rudin, it fits with your theory too.

(4) We'll have to see how the rest of the precursors go, but so far Waverley has the edge over All My Sons (Waverley won the Drama League, and All My Sons was not nominated for the Drama Desks). And remember that Boys in the Band was not eligible for the precursors. So that means that the precursors show signs against All My Sons, even without competing against Boys in the Band"

There are no precursors for the Tonys. The other awards combine off- and on-Broadway and have differing eligibility, so it’s apples and oranges. The Tonys stand alone. 

Also, if BitB opened before Waverly, how did the latter become a front-runner by default?

[TexanAddams18]

Between Baskin, Pope, and Sykes, I feel very confident that one of them is going to win. 

[ggersten]

Cher performing.

[SomethingPeculiar]

carolinaguy said: "I think The Prom may be shut out. Is that an upset? Or just one of those weak season things?"

Not an upset. If it won anything, it would be an upset for other shows that are thought to be frontrunners. I think its best chances at winning would be Best Book over Tootsie, and even that's a stretch.

[VintageSnarker]

These would be surprises to me. 

The Prom winning Best Musical

Kiss Me Kate winning Best Revival 

Damon winning Best Actor

Anyone but Stephanie J. Block winning Best Actress

Best Original Score not going to Hadestown or Tootsie

Best Direction going to anyone but Hadestown or Oklahoma! (but really Hadestown)

Jeremy Pope taking either of his categories

Anyone besides Bob Mackie winning for Costume Design

[SomethingPeculiar]

Music_Maker42 said: "Finnoula Flanagan winning over Celia Keenan-Bolger and Mockingbird getting shut out."

I think Julie White is just as much of a threat to Celia.

[RWPrincess]

Cranston losing to Pope or Driver

Fontana losing to Brightman

Beetlejuice or The Prom winning Best Musical

Having now seen both Tootsie and Hadestown, I would not be surprised to see them split a lot of categories. I had originally thought it would skew more towards Hadestown.

I agree that Cher is likely to be a surprise performer. I would also like to see Disney On Broadway 25th anniversary tribute and a performance from Pretty Woman. I’m guessing BMC will perform Michael in the Bathroom too.

[After Eight]

The screed wins best play, and its author best actress.

 

 

[HogansHero]

This Rudin conspiracy theory floating around in this thread is a lot like most conspiracy theories. I am not going to dissect it here but let me just point out one glaring truth that exposes its silliness: the nominating committee and the Tony voters are not cognates. Not even close.

[uncageg]

For some reason, I feel a surprise in the Best Musical category.

[SomethingPeculiar]

The title nobody else has said yet in this thread: CONSTITUTION. I do think it stands a shot at winning, especially with how prescient the subject matter is right now. I would be surprised but thrilled if it won.

[After Eight]

^

A chance of winning?

I don't think it has a chance of not winning.

The agenda crowd are one determined bunch.

[SomethingPeculiar]

@AfterEight,

Oh THAT'S the screed??? Sorry, I thought you were talking about different screed. So much screed nowadays, you know. (Assassin's Screed, Appollo Screed, Screed Bratton, etc.)

[HogansHero]

After Eight said: "^A chance of winning?

I don't think it has a chance of not winning.

The agenda crowd are one determined bunch."

Do you really not know who the Tony voters are? The only agenda that a majority of Tony voters share is making money. Another senseless conspiracy theory. Join the club, poseur.

[JBroadway]

Ok, haha - lots of confusion around my earlier post, some of which was my fault. 

First, I confess that I completely forgot that the OCCs were announced already!! Mea culpa. And yes, they did go with All My Sons, so there's that. 

Second, I agree that pre-cursors definitely should not be relied upon exclusively as a predictor for the Tonys. But that doesn't mean they should be dismissed wholesale. At the very least, they can remind the Tony committee of certain shows, and guide their attention and perspective. 

 

carolinaguy said "Also, if BitB opened before Waverly, how did the latter become a front-runner by default?"

 

Sorry I was unclear. Maybe it's me, but I never thought the term "frontrunner" had anything to do with when something opened, does it? But in any case, the reason I said Waverley seemed to be the default frontrunner is because, when the Spring play revivals started coming out, and most of them ended up not living up to expectations, it seemed like everyone sort of looked to Waverley as the most viable option, not considering that BitB might stick in the voters' minds. Anyway that was my read on the situation, personally.