Way Too Early 2020 Tony Predictions thread

[JBroadway]

@Wayman_Wong

Thanks for the shout-out haha! And I’ll amend what I said slightly: back when I posted that, there were a couple songs that I couldn’t remember from the film, and assumed they were original. But they were, in fact, also from the film. There is actually only ONE original song in the musical that is original. So it is definitely not going to be eligible for best score.

@chrishuyen

As far as plays in the best score category, I would think that Rose Tattoo would be a potential contender. The music was original, and quite beautiful in my opinion. Plus, it was written by the same man who won a special Tony for Choir Boy last year, so he is more likely to be on their radar. Only big problem is that the show will be long-closed, and it wasn’t all that well-received in the first place.

Christmas Carol won’t be eligible for best score, but could very well get a nod in Best Orchestration.

[Sebby150]

Best Musical-Jagged Little Pill

Best Play-The Inheritance or The Sound Inside
Best Score-Six
Best Book-Jagged Little Pill
Best Orchestrations-Jagged Little Pill
Best Actress-Sharon D Clarke
Best Featured Actor-Danny Burnstein
Best Featured Actress-Lauren Patten
Best Scenic Design-Moulin Rouge!
Best Lighting Design-Six or Jagged Little Pill
Best Costume Design-Moulin Rouge!
Best Sound Design-Moulin Rouge
Best Revival of a Musical-Company

[Theatrefanboy1]

Best Musical-Moulin Rouge or SIX

Best Play-The Inheritance
Best Score-Six
Best Book- Moulin Rouge or JLP
Best Orchestrations- Moulin Rouge or Girl From the North Country
Best Actress- Adrienne Warren
Best Featured Actor-Danny Burnstein
Best Scenic Design-Moulin Rouge!
Best Lighting Design-Six or Moulin Rouge
Best Costume Design-Moulin Rouge! Or Diana
Best Sound Design-Moulin Rouge
Best Revival of a Musical-Company

[singer234]

Lead actress is stacked. As far as I can tell there’s only one slot open, with the other 4 going to Sharon, Adrienne, Katrina, and Karen. I also think people are vastly underestimating Moulin Rouge’s potential to win big. It’s the single most popular show on Broadway right now, second only to Hamilton. I know that doesn’t translate to awards, but it’s certainly no “joke” amongst insiders the way some people here would make it out to be. Karen herself was just highlighted as one of the reasons it was listed as one of the best pieces of the year.

[Emmaloucbway]

Currently these are my predictions/guesses for the musical performances:
 

Lead Actor: Rob McClure, Mrs. Doubtfire 

Lead Actress: Sharon D Clarke, Caroline, or Change (I could also see this going to Adrienne Warren for Tina)

Featured Actor: Danny Burstein, Moulin Rouge!

Featured Actress: Patti Lupone, Company 

[Mike Barrett]

Probably a tad early to figure out acting predictions, Imo at least, but I think that "Best Musical" and "Best Revival of a Musical" are going to be the most interesting races this year. There seems to be pretty strong competition throughout the potential nominees: 

Revival: 

Company, Caroline or Change, and West Side Story. Its early but based on the London reviews for the first 2 productions, and the early raves for West Side Story, I think this category is bloody STACKED. This should be fun to watch it play out. 

Musical: I really don't see a clear contender here, except maybe Moulin Rouge I guess. But, as someone who loves that show Im not entirely sure its "Best musical" quality. The other contenders seem to be: A Girl From The North Country, Flying Over Sunset, Six, and possibly JLP, although I'm doubting that. The other ones seem to not be as strong of contenders. The biggest ? here is Flying Over Sunset, which I do believe has Best Musical contender written all over it. 

It should be a fun season to follow! 

[Jarethan]

Mike Barrett said: "The biggest ? here is Flying Over Sunset, which I do believe has Best Musical contender written all over it.  It should be a fun season to follow!"

I have to admit that this sounds to me like the stupidest idea ever for a musical, which leads me to conclude  that it is either going to be incredibly bad or incredibly brilliant.  I am hoping for brilliant, as I like all three leads (I saw Carmen Cusack a decade or so ago in a revival of South Pacific in St. Louis and thought that she was far and away the best Nellie Forbush I had ever seen and probably tied with Donna Murphy for the best R&H heroine I had ever seen, which says a lot more).  I guess we will know whether it is brilliant or a disaster after the first preview.  

 

[chrishuyen]

I'm sure someone on this board would know and seeing as it's somewhat relevant to this thread, I wanted to ask a few questions on category designations, particularly for lighting. 

When a show has practical lighting effects (like the swinging lamps in Hadestown or the lanterns throughout the theater in Christmas Carol), is that considered lighting or set to Tony voters?  Is there a line where it's something like the physical design of the lighting object itself is set while the actual light it sheds is lighting, or is it somewhat amorphous and up to the voter?

Also, since the Tonys don't have a projection design category, are projections considered set or lighting? I'm assuming set since it really plays more into the visual aspect rather than just drawing attention to a particular part of the stage, though I find that distinction is getting a bit blurred as well.  And as a side note, if there are LED screens (like in Mean Girls) that still counts as projection design even though it's not strictly speaking a projection, right?

[JBroadway]

Not sure about practical lights like the lanterns - I’d be curious to know the answer to that question as well.

However, with regards to projections: I believe if the projections are a major component to the scenic design, the Tony committee can choose to include the video designers as eligible in the scenic design category. This was the case with both Mean Girls and King Kong.

[Hamilfan2]

Practical light elements are considered for both categories, as they are a collaboration between the set and lighting designers. If. You wanna get really technical, the actual light element itself is set design while the light it produces is lighting design.

[JBroadway]

Hamilfan2 said: "Practical light elements are considered for both categories, as they are a collaboration between the set and lighting designers. If. You wanna get really technical, the actual light element itself is set design while the light it produces is lighting design."


That makes sense. And I think that’s especially applicable to the lanterns in Christmas Carol, because the lanterns are illuminated differently at different times. Sometimes they’re dimmer, sometimes the light spreads across the lanterns like a wave, etc. So I think your final statement makes sense, and it’s probably not just the light it produces, but also the artistic decisions regarding when they’re on, in which patterns, and at what brightness. 

[jonah3500]

Even though I doubt it, I really hope one of the SiX queens wins.
Although it’s unlikely, it would be so crazy having every nominee from
Featured Actress in a Musical be from SiX.
Has anything like that ever happened before?

[Mike Barrett]

jonah3500 said: "Even though I doubt it, I really hope one of the SiX queens wins.
Although it’s unlikely, it would be so crazy having every nominee from
Featured Actress in a Musical be from SiX.
Has anything like that ever happened before?"

No, to my knowledge and I doubt they'd do that. I believe the Matilda girls got a special tony honoring their work. If anything, I see something similar happening here. 

I haven't seen SIX, but could there be a scenario where 1 of them gets a nomination? I assume this show is a lot like Come From Away in the fact that its a true ensemble piece, but again haven't seen it so thats just my guess. 

[givesmevoice]

In London all six of the queens were jointly nominated for Supporting Actress. But the Oliviers are a lawless entity, and I'd be surprised to see that happen at the Tonys. (Though, of course, the original children in The Sound of Music were jointly nominated for Featured Actress and the Billys jointly won Lead Actor for Billy Elliot. But I think not having the Matildas in a competitive category kind of put the kibosh on joint nominations moving forward.)

[ellbellthomps]

I absolutely love Moulin Rouge and i truly believe it should win every award. 

Do I think it will? No, but I can hope. 

[Mike Barrett]

ellbellthomps said: "I absolutely love Moulin Rouge and i truly believe it should win every award.

Do I think it will? No, but I can hope."

Other than lead actor/actress, its got a legit chance is every category. A bit too early to predict the Best Musical side, but supporting actor, direction, lighting design, scenic design, choreography, etc, all have a very decent/strong chance of happening. If the season stays on par as it has, I could see them getting the award for being the most innovating show of the season. Expanded on the material a bit and literally brought YOU inside the Moulin Rouge. Not many Broadway experiences are like that these days, and I believe in that aspect at the very least the show will be recognized. 

[Daddy Warbucks]

What are people's predictions for Best Play?  Prior to opening, I would have thought Inheritance would be a lock.  But after the reviews I feel like there's an opening for another contender to make the race interesting.  

[chrishuyen]

I was thinking the award would come down to Inheritance or Slave Play. I still think Inheritance is in the running despite the reviews but considering the fact that a lot of people seem to consider it too white, I think Slave Play has a pretty good shot. The Minutes and Hangmen are also on my radar but i dont know enough about them to say. I do think Sound Inside is likely to get a nomination but probably not win, and Christmas Carol could be a dark horse for a nomination

[chrishuyen]

I was thinking the award would come down to Inheritance or Slave Play. I still think Inheritance is in the running despite the reviews but considering the fact that a lot of people seem to consider it too white, I think Slave Play has a pretty good shot. The Minutes and Hangmen are also on my radar but i dont know enough about them to say. I do think Sound Inside is likely to get a nomination but probably not win, and Christmas Carol could be a dark horse for a nomination

[Mike Barrett]

Everyone seems to be forgetting The Lehman Trilogy as well, which opens up at the Nederlander in march I believe. 

I think that, along with Slave Play and The Inheritance are our front runners. The Sound Inside will grab the other nomination. If there's a 5th, then likely The Minutes. Just my own speculation but thats what its looking like right now based on reviews on here and by critics. Still favor The Inheritance however. 

[Ledaero]

It really seems like it's open game for Best Musical and Best Play. With the polarized reviews/reception on all plays, it doesn't seem like there's any clear frontrunner.

This early in the game, my guess is that Best Play will go to Slave Play. I think a lot of people in the industry want to honor Harris on his incredible year and how much he's emerged onto the scene, plus the social relevance of the piece. Maybe Hangmen has a good shot too, but I remember reviews/reception not being extraordinary for its Off-Broadway run.

For musical, maybe Girl From The North Country? I didn't love it at the Public and I know many who felt similar, but seems like critical pull could be enough to take it all the way. 

I can't remember the last time there was a year where campaigning could really make or break the awards.

[JSquared2]

Unless Tony Yazbek or Anthony Haden-Guest blows people away in FLYING OVER SUNSET, I would say Isaac Powell is a pretty safe bet for Best Actor in a Musical.  Is there anyone else in the running besides Rob McClure or Aaron Tveit?

[Wayman_Wong]

''Unless Tony Yazbek or Anthony Haden-Guest blows people away in FLYING OVER SUNSET, I would say Isaac Powell is a pretty safe bet for Best Actor in a Musical."

Anthony Haden-Guest isn't in ''Flying Over Sunset.'' You mean Harry Hadden-Patton, who was Henry Higgins in the latest ''My Fair Lady.'' Hadden-Patton will play Aldous Huxley in the new musical.

And if Powell wins Best Actor in a Musical, it'll be historic. Previous performers who have played Tony in ''West Side Story,'' such as Larry Kert, etc.,  have never even been Tony-nominated for that role, let alone won. (Matt Cavenaugh did, however, get nominated by the Outer Critics Circle for his Tony in the 2009 revival.)

[DiscoCrows]

JBroadway said: "Not sure about practical lights like the lanterns - I’d be curious to know the answer to that question as well.

However, with regards to projections: I believe if the projections are a major component to the scenic design, the Tony committee can choose to include the video designers as eligible in the scenic design category. This was the case with both Mean Girls and King Kong."

Not that I think JLP will win set design, but I thought the way they automatically tracked the actual projections onto the hand-operated/rotated flats was super impressive.

[MadonnaMusical]

Jarethan said: "Mike Barrett said: "The biggest ? here is Flying Over Sunset, which I do believe has Best Musical contender written all over it. It should be a fun season to follow!"

I have to admit that this soundstome like the stupidest idea ever for a musical, which leads me to conclude that it is either going to be incredibly bad or incredibly brilliant. I am hoping for brilliant, as I like all three leads (I saw Carmen Cusack a decade or so ago in a revival of South Pacific in St. Louis and thought that she was far and away the best Nellie Forbush I had ever seen and probably tied with Donna Murphy for the best R&H heroine I had ever seen, which says a lot more). I guess we will know whether it is brilliant or a disaster after the first preview.

 

"

Based on the writers attached, it literally could be either.