Best Actress in a Play predictions

[BeingAlive 2]

Posted: 4/7/19 at 11:24pm

Sorry to begin another tony predictions thread but for my money this is one of THE categories of the year and I was curious to read more discussion on it. So much l phenomenal work. At the moment I imagine the nominees will likely be:

Laura Donnelly, The Ferryman
Glenda Jackson, King Lear
Elaine May, The Waverly Gallery
Laurie Metcalf, Hillary and Clinton
Heidi Schreck, What the Constitution Means to Me

My gut is telling me May has this but can you ever count out Metcalf? Especially with a spring opening. And I also could see Heidi Schreck pulling off an upset?

What are everyones thoughts?

[Zion24]

Posted: 4/7/19 at 11:30pm

Metcalf, May and Glenda Jackson are shoo-ins for nominations. The rest, I would argue, is hard to predict. 

I havent seen Heidi Schreck, but with respect to the rest, I would imagine its a Metcalf v. May contest; and given that Metcalf is 2/2 the past two years, and May is capping off a decades-long absence, I think this is hers to lose.

And deservedly so. May was transcendent. Metcalf did great work, Glenda Jackson shook the heavens (in an otherwise horrible production), and everyone in the Ferryman contributed to an excellent ensemble. But only Elaine May really blurred the line between reality/drama. She made me weep. I am really rooting for her.

[BenElliott]

Posted: 4/7/19 at 11:35pm

I'm 100% team Elaine May. Truly the greatest performance I have ever seen on stage. The poster above me describes it perfectly. What I was watching onstage wasn't a performance, it was reality.

[CT2NYC]

Posted: 4/7/19 at 11:40pm

Elaine May will win, not only because she deserves to, but also because she's Elaine May. I don't see this as a close race at all.

Updated On: 4/7/19 at 11:40 PM

[RWPrincess]

Posted: 4/7/19 at 11:42pm

I agree with everything said about Elaine May. She is the one I’m rooting for.

I also think Kerry Washington will be nominated for American Son.

[TotallyEffed]

Posted: 4/7/19 at 11:44pm

My vote is for Elaine May, she was so believable and heartbreaking.

I saw Metcalf today and she was simply fantastic. I’d be happy with either.

[Zion24]

Posted: 4/7/19 at 11:59pm

Metcalf was incredible and deserves all the accolades, but her performance (intelligent woman, frustrated, articulate and angry) is hella like Nora from A Dolls House 2. Dont get me wrong, i liked Hillary and Clinton and liked her take on Hillary, but she's raised the bar so high for herself that I felt like i was nodding in agreement with her work. I wasn't awed by it.

To pile on the May love, when I saw the show (in previews), I didnt know what it was about really and until it became clear where her character's story/health was headed, I found myself nervous because I actually thought SHE was struggling with the text. Her descent was so organic and realistic, I am getting chills just typing about it now. 

[UncleCharlie]

Posted: 4/8/19 at 12:14am

May's performance was so stunning, so nuanced. It's not easy to play a role where someone is literally losing their mind and in less capable hands, it could have become a caricature. She was remarkable. I'm rooting for her.

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 4/8/19 at 12:51am

It'll be May, Metcalf, Jackson, Donnelly (in no order), and then Heidi Schreck, Bening, Nielsen, or Washington for the 5th slot. I think Schreck will get the nom (for Actress and Play).

A win could come down to campaigning. In 2017, Metcalf rode the wave of love for Doll's House to a Best Actress win. Jackson, Metcalf, and Schreck will be freshest in voters' minds because their shows are still running; they can also be at every Tony luncheon and event.

May's tricky. Her performance was astonishing, but she probably couldn't care less about winning an award (and didn't do any press for Waverly). It would also be a historic win: in the last 30 years the only person to win Best Actress for a show that closed before nominations was Cynthia Nixon for Rabbit Hole (and even that closed in early April of '06).

[skylight2]

Posted: 4/8/19 at 2:05am

^Happened for Julie White for The Little Dog Laughed actually. Closed in Feb 2007.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 4/8/19 at 5:47am

Here is my current predicted lineup:

Laura Donnelly-The Ferryman
Glenda Jackson-King Lear
Elaine May-The Waverly Gallery
Laurie Metcalf-Hillary & Clinton
Heidi Schreck-What the Constitution Means to Me

Updated On: 4/8/19 at 05:47 AM

[Melissa25]

Posted: 4/8/19 at 6:33am

I agree that it will probably go to May but I am rooting for Donnelly. She was superb in The Ferryman. A piece of her heart is probably still up on that stage at the Jacobs.

[henrikegerman]

Posted: 4/8/19 at 9:11am

BeingAlive2, agree with your nod predictions.

Would be surprised if May did not win.  Though a tie would be nice.

Glenda Jackson's Lear's timing's for award chances  - if she cared, which i doubt very much she does - has been challenging.

Both in London and here she's had to compete with two other absolutely stellar performances.  From two other extraordinary actors.  One like her very old, the other quite young. 

Elaine May's and Billie Piper's work in Waverly and Yerma define the kind of acting one feels almost embarrassingly privileged to have seen.  And to be able to try to describe the joy of having seen them. To those not so lucky for years to come.

Still, if Jackson had not just won a so well deserved Tony, predicting who would win this year would be a great deal tougher.

[henrikegerman]

Posted: 4/8/19 at 9:11am

unintended replicate post.

Updated On: 4/8/19 at 09:11 AM

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 4/8/19 at 9:12am

Agree that May is the frontrunner by far, but I actually think her closest competition may end up being Donnelly, who is starring in the co-frontrunner for Best Play that is still running and is also in a play based on an event that caused tragedy in her own family. That could easily drum up a ton of emotional support from the voters. But I agree May is still way out in front (and deservedly so).

[bjh2114]

Posted: 4/8/19 at 9:18am

I think people are a little too confident about May here. I loved her performance, but I'd hardly say it was a lock for the award. I still think people are underestimating Schreck in this category. I think there's going to be a lot of love for what she's doing over at the Hayes.

[broadway86]

Posted: 4/8/19 at 9:19am

Elaine May and Laura Donnelly were both utterly phenomenal, and I do plan on seeing Metcalf within the next few weeks.

Was hoping that Keri Russell's Anna would be a contender too, but having just saw her... I don't foresee that happening.

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 4/8/19 at 10:17am

May gave the type of performance that when the show started I was instantly drawn into their reality because of her. She didn't even seem to be acting. So many great performances this year, but I really hope it goes to her. 

[east side story]

Posted: 4/8/19 at 10:19am

Uh! Billie Piper in Yerma! That performance will haunt me for as long as my memory holds up. What an earth shaking portrayal of pain and longing. 

[52889j]

Posted: 4/8/19 at 10:32am

All of the play acting categories are embarrassingly rich and crowded this year. Actress is no different.

 

I agree with the OP lineup both in terms of what I predict to happen and who I think is deserving, but I haven't seen Annette Benning yet.

I think Donnelly, Jackson, May, Metcalf, and Schreck all give Tony-worthy performances and I'd be okay with them winning in other years.

However, for me, I have to say May deserves it. It was unforgettable and transcendent. Perhaps the most complex and nuanced performance I have seen on stage. If she snatches up some precursor awards, I think a narrative will form that could get the voters to push her through.

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 4/8/19 at 10:36am

The most jarring thing to me in Waverly Gallery was when Elaine May came out for her bow as a smiling, vibrant, healthy woman. I had entirely forgotten that she was acting. I think there’s been a lot of exceptional work across the board this season, but I think this is rightfully May’s to lose.

[GeorgeandDot]

Posted: 4/8/19 at 11:12am

Elaine May should win and I think it helped that she did no press because it made it harder to separate the actress from the performance. She was flawless and just so heartbreaking.

[TFMH18]

Posted: 4/8/19 at 1:05pm

That a Heidi Schreck nomination seems very likely is such a victory. Even if she doesn't win, to have this nontraditional but INCREDIBLE performance recognized will be so satisfying.

I think the five are: Schreck, Metcalf, Jackson, May, Donnelly as well, but that would mean Annette Bening is shut out, so we'll see. 

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 4/8/19 at 1:42pm

With this being such a brutal cateogry, I could see them leaving Schreck out, thinking they can reward her with a Best Play nomination whereas they can't with the others.  Not that this is how they SHOULD think, but I could definitely see them doing that.

[bjh2114]

Posted: 4/8/19 at 4:36pm

Broadway61004 said: "With this being such a brutal cateogry, I could see them leaving Schreck out, thinking they can reward her with a Best Play nomination whereas they can't with the others. Not that this is how they SHOULD think, but I could definitely see them doing that."

I would be flabbergasted if that happened given the reviews that she got.