Best Lead Actress in a Musical 2019 Tony Race

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This was brought up in the Cher show review thread, what is the big competition for best lead actress in a musical this year?

Size of role wise, it looks like the meatiest role is Cher. OHara would probably be nominated for kiss me Kate.

If Beth level is considered leading, I could see her getting nominated, but I don’t know if that role could rival Cher.

What are the other leading actress in a musical roles this year? Anything big in tootsie or hadestown? I don’t see a leading actress nomination for beetle juice or be more chill.

Samantha barks could fill out the nominations too, but that’s only 4.

If I look into my crystal ball of role demand/performance and broadway politics, this could legitimately be the heard of SJB’s win.

Thoughts?
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*year of SJB’s win.

Sorry, using the app.
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Let's what the Spring shows bring in, but will be pulling for SJB.
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Eva N would be the lead in Hadestown. For Beetlejuice - Sophia Anne Caruso. And for GFTNC - Mare Winningham.

Right now it’s SJB’s to lose. Only Kelli seems like serious competition.
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ACL2006 said: "Let's what the Spring shows bring in, but will be pulling for SJB."

Good point, I guess my question is, for those of you on the boards that have seen tryouts for tootsie, hadestown, be more chill, and beetlejuice, are there leading actress roles?

 

Looking at the numbers, we could easily predict the nominees. 

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I think the main five in the running are Samantha Barks, Stephanie J. Block, Sophie Anne Caruso, Eva Noblezada and Kelli O’Hara.

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Caitlin Kinnunen could sneak in if she as nominated as leading, riding the prom review wave. I could see her battling it out with Samantha Barks.
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I think Block and O'Hara are sure things for nominations.

I hope Barks gets a nom as well. I thought Pretty Woman was generally very bad, but I still think about how radiant her performance was.

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From the performances I have seen so far, Stephanie J Block is definitely the frontrunner in my book. It is hard for me to imagine another performance this season even coming close to Block's Cher.

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Stephanie J. Block - The Cher Show
Kelli O'Hara - Kiss Me, Kate
Eva Noblezada - Hadestown
Sophie Anne Caruso - Beetlejuice
Samantha Barks - Pretty Woman
Christiani Pitts - King Kong

I think Lili Cooper won't be lead, she's very featured.


Maybe The Prom will go Head Over Heels route and put everyone in featured? I think it's likely.


Ain't Too Proud and Be More Chill doesn't have leading ladies.


In this scenario, we would only have 4 nominees (most likely the first four in the list), but if anyone from Prom goes lead or Winnigham joins the game, then will be 5.

Unless O'Hara is a knock-out, it's really Block's to lose.
 

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^ I will be legitimately shocked beyond belief if Christiani Pitts gets nominated for King Kong.

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bwayphreak234 said: "^ I will be legitimately shocked beyond belief if Christiani Pitts gets nominated for King Kong."

 

Me too.  Sorry to dump on her but she was wrong on SO many levels.  Not just her performance - the whole concept for the character.

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I know it hasn't been announced yet, but what about Mare Winningham? If Girl from the North Country transfers, she'll definitely be nominated. The only question is whether she'd be lead or featured.

Updated On: 12/5/18 at 02:04 PM
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To play devil's advocate, when was the consensus reached as to Eva Noblezada being the lead for Hadestown? I would've pinned that as Amber Gray, who I think would be legitimate competition for O'Hara and Block. (And yes, I've seen the show)

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CT2NYC said: "I know it hasn't been announced yet, but what about Mare Winningham? IfGirl from the North Country transfers,she'll definitely be nominated. The only question is whether she'd be lead or featured."



Shirley Henderson was placed lead for the same role in London at the Olivier Awards and WON. So I definitely suspect Mare Winningham will be a strong competitor in the lead category here.

The CHER SHOW looks like (after those reviews) its facing up to potentially be a pretty big bomb, so that is definitely not going to help Stephanie Block to a win, no matter how good or hardworking she may be. There will no doubt be some other very strong choices in the mix voters will also be considering.

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Bad reviews have never stopped shows from winning awards, and The Cher Show has had good box office and seems to be enjoying better word-of-mouth in the industry than other shows that have had critical smackdowns.

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Kad, we will have to see what the coming months bring for THE CHER SHOW. I know you are a fan, but I've also heard (and even before the reviews came out) many negative remarks about the show from people I also respect. I've yet to see it. All I know is that its going to be very expensive to run and the word of mouth is going to have to circumvent some pretty horrid notices.
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SJB I think also has a slight edge over the other actresses so far in that she is now that actress that everyone likes and often does good solid performances and is nominated for great work but has yet to win the Tony. She's always there but always just a little lower on the list then someone else. Unless someone else really blows up with an outstanding performance (the judge and jury is out on Kelli O'Hara in Kate) I can see her getting a boost in votes over others for an "It's time" factor on top of her already great performance. She might also be seen as the only IT factor of a kind of poorly reviewed show. That light in the dark that makes her shine even brighter in voters eyes. 

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Does playing someone who is basically a living legend help Block or hurt her? I think this could really be her year, everything I've heard about her performance is outstanding but I don't know how the voters will feel about a jukebox musical?

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kelsey1389 said: "Does playing someone who is basically a living legend help Block or hurt her? I think this could really be her year, everything I've heard about her performance is outstanding but I don't know how the voters will feel about a jukebox musical?"

I think in this case, help. Because she is doing such a great good of it. If she was taking on a legend like share and going a less then stellar job of it, I doubt we'd even be having this conversation at the moment. Because she is so good at honoring the legend is why she is a front runner at this point.

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Scarlet Leigh said: "SJB I think also has a slight edge over the other actresses so far in that she is now that actress that everyone likes and often does good solid performancesand is nominated for great work but has yet to win the Tony. She's always there but always just a little lower on the list then someone else. Unless someone else really blows up with an outstanding performance (the judge and jury is out on Kelli O'Hara in Kate) I can see her getting a boost in votes over others for an "It's time" factor on top of her already great performance. Shemight also be seen as the only ITfactor of a kind of poorly reviewed show. That light in the dark that makes her shine even brighter in voters eyes."

This theory is basically LaChanze in COLOR PURPLE. 

I think it's way too early to say, of course. But at this moment, she's definitely the frontrunner. We're only halfway through the season, though.

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I really think Beth Leavel will get a nom. Her belting alone plus shes really hilarious. The only potential issue is if her and Caitlin split the Prom votes.
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My very early guess for the five now is: 

SJB
Kelli O'Hara
Beth Leavel
Rebecca Naomi Jones
Eva Noblezada

Of those, the only real threat to Stephanie is Kelli, and I still think it's SJB's for the taking. It isn't like last year when Katrina Lenk was such a clear frontrunner from before the season even began, but I do think SJB has generated a decade of good will in the industry and her time has come. That being said... we'll see how the chips fall come spring openings.

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Is Eva a lead in Hadestown?

I do think it will perceived as Stephanie's "time." I also have a hard time seeing Kelli O'Hara do better than Marin Mazzie in KMK (a memory that many people still have), and winning another Tony for her first Broadway credit after her last award.

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I doubt it would happen, but if they petitioned Amber Gray (and even Patrick Page) for leading instead of Noblezada, what would her chances look like with all the previously listed actresses?