Over/Under how long do you give the shows this season?

[Call_me_jorge]

King Kong- under 500 performances
Prom- under 700 performances
Beetljuice- over 700 performances
Tootsie- over 900 performances

[SomethingPeculiar]

One thing is known: KING KONG cost $35 million to produce, and the running costs have to be HIGH (I'd guess $800k+ per week). If they start to struggle, that's gonna get real expensive real quick –– and the producers might have money, but they don't have the resources of Nickelodeon or Disney.

Also, don't Over/Unders usually focus on both the over and the under? Your numbers seem generous (~416 perfs is 1 year of shows) and it's hard to look at just 4 without considering all the competition, sales, reviews, awards potential, etc. for all 10 new musicals this season. 

[Bwayfan292]

King Kong: Under 300

with no names attatched, and the puppet basically being the thing they are selling, I have a feeling this wont do too hot.  

Prom: Under 100

its already not selling well, and no one is talking about it, if it ends up not having great word of mouth, this thing is going to go south.

Beetlejuice: Over 500

has a great theatre, great cast, and Beetlejuice can sell on its name alone. So Im being a little generous but no one has seen it yet so it could be bad. (Same with all the other shows) 

Tootsie: Under 600

it has great word of mouth from the out of town try out, but I dont think this will sell great to the younger crowd, and the marquis is a bad theatre in my opinion. 

 

Mine is Completely based on what ifs, since no one has seen any except tootise and the out of town tryout of the prom. 

[bwayphreak234]

Considering none of these shows have started previews on Broadway yet, I think it is WAY too early to make predictions.

[CedricOates]

It’s between Be More Chill and Tootsie for who will run the longest this season.

[UncleCharlie]

bwayphreak234 said: "Considering none of these shows have started previewson Broadway yet, I think it is WAY too early to make predictions."

You obviously don't know how this board works.

[BalconyClub]

I believe there's always a hungry Bridge and Tunnel audience who loves to see a man in a dress.

As Kinky Boots is closing, Tootsie will fill this market need.

[UncleCharlie]

BalconyClub said: "I believe there's always a hungry Bridge and Tunnel audience who loves to see a man in a dress.

As Kinky Boots is closing, Tootsie will fill this market need."

I tweeted Chazz Palminteri if he wanted A Bronx Tale to run longer when he joined the show as Sonny, he should have played him wearing a dress. He should've listened.

[VintageSnarker]

I'm not too optimistic on color conscious casting after Carousel (and also because in this version it muddles the implications of the original story rather than possibly adding more layers) but that's the thing that has me most interested in King Kong right now. Not knowing anything about the music, I don't think the puppet itself will be enough spectacle to hold audiences if the music isn't good. 

Just because the season is feeling pretty dismal right now, I feel good about Tootsie having at least a 2-year run, likely longer unless something comes in to challenge it. I think there's overlap but it hits enough of a different audience than Moulin Rouge for that to not be a problem. If anything eats into its box office it might be The Cher Show but I think it's slim pickings for anyone looking for an original, non-jukebox musical and most of them will choose to see Tootsie.

[MauraLovesMusicals]

i’m giving pretty woman about a year, maybe a little more. tickets seem to be selling well, and the show has lots of charm to woo tourists so i’m expecting this one to go head to head with some of the best of this season

[bradwalt]

Gettin' The Band Back Together:   Over/Under 40.  

[Scarlet Leigh]

CedricOates said: "It’s between Be More Chill and Tootsie for who will run the longest this season."

Be More Chill is going to be going home LONG before Tootsie and Beetlejuice.

Be More Chill might have a very strong teenage and young adult fan base, but that fan base will not be able to afford more than one (if even one) trip to the show. The fanbase here is more like/more able to afford buying bootlegs people will capture of the show then actually going to see the show. The typical Broadway crowd will not have good word of mouth among one another about it because the show is not targeting their demo. It already has a pretty “meh” word of mouth among older patrons that saw it Off Broadway. And last, the tourist crowd coming in looking for a familiar name when they have no information about the shows will be attracted to names they know like Tootsie, Beetlejuice, the Disney properties, Phantom, etc before Be More Chill.

Once the novelty of Be More Chill dies down and the people only going in because they are curious about what the trend is all about see it, it's dead. It does not have the same staying power of Hamilton or Dear Evan Hansen because it's message does not bridge the gag between generations. It's got a VERY specific crowd it's catering to.

[Dallas Theatre Fan]

King Kong: Under 400 performances

With nobody in the cast the puppet is going to be the main selling point.  The puppet is a technical master piece which, I'm willing to bet, will not be running correctly during the first few weeks of previews.  Plus, it has the same producers as Moulin Rouge so, if KK is not a soldout hit when Moulin Rouge opens I suspect KK will move back to the jungle.

Prom: Under 50 performances 

I really want this show to succeed but unfortunately, the producers are making almost every mistake in the book.  This probably won't be around for Christmas. 

Beetlejuice: Under 200 performances 

I just have gut feeling this show is going to go down the same route as Groundhog Day.  Bankable title with a great cast but, it just won't draw the crowds in for whatever reason.  This one I hope I'm wrong.

Tootsie: Above 700 performances 

A solid year and a half run.  Once Fantana leaves the box office will slow down.  

The Cher Show:  Under 500 or Above 1000 performances, no where in between.

This show will either have a Beautiful type run or a Summers type run.  It all depends on how well the PR team can handle the eventual tourist tantrum when they find out Cher isn't in it.