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shows that wont make it to Jan 15th 2019

ladypresent
Understudy
joined:3/13/17
Understudy
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3/13/17
shows that wont make it to Jan 15th 2019#1
Posted: 7/8/18 at 10:55am

Anastasia
Kinky boots
Beautiful
Getting the band back together
Head over heels
Spongebob
Waitress (unless Sara B comes back in the show again)

thoughts?

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ethan231h
Broadway Legend
joined:5/5/11
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shows that wont make it to Jan 15th 2019#2
Posted: 7/8/18 at 11:09am

I dont know I think Waitress has been pulling some nice numbers even with no star (weeks with Stephanie Torns as Jenna)...same for Anastasia.

the closer we get to September when spongebob has tickets on sale too makes me wonder if they in fact will transfer theaters though I think its doubtful.

I wouldn't judge head over heals just yet.....

 

GTBBT will be gone by Columbus day. 

Beautiful and Kinky boots who knows

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Call_me_jorge
Broadway Legend
joined:1/9/15
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shows that wont make it to Jan 15th 2019#3
Posted: 7/8/18 at 11:09am
Pretty woman...
BroadwayBeebe
Featured Actor
joined:2/10/16
Featured Actor
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shows that wont make it to Jan 15th 2019#4
Posted: 7/8/18 at 11:14am
Depending on how this fall goes, I could see Anastasia having a bit more life in it.

I would add Carousel and Summer to the list of those not likely to make it past the above date.

I love Once on This Island, but I fear that it too will be gone around New Years.
ladypresent
Understudy
joined:3/13/17
Understudy
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3/13/17
shows that wont make it to Jan 15th 2019#5
Posted: 7/8/18 at 11:27am

i usually look and base it by summer numbers...if the show isn't doing well..and just kinda "there" it will be gone. Summer and christmas are the biggest times. So if you aren't making a 100k or so over your nut in the summer there is almost no way you make it to the new year. 

SOrock might be going down that road as well

JSquared2
Broadway Legend
joined:3/23/17
Broadway Legend
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shows that wont make it to Jan 15th 2019#6
Posted: 7/8/18 at 12:08pm

Call_me_jorge said: "Pretty Woman”

 

The show has a large advance. It’s not going anywhere anytime soon. 

ladypresent
Understudy
joined:3/13/17
Understudy
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3/13/17
shows that wont make it to Jan 15th 2019#7
Posted: 7/8/18 at 12:13pm

i disagree. "large advances" can dwindle very quickly if the reviews and WOM is bad. 

UncleCharlie
Broadway Legend
joined:6/26/16
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shows that wont make it to Jan 15th 2019#8
Posted: 7/8/18 at 12:14pm
A Bronx Tale
crazy_for_broadway
Swing
joined:6/19/18
Swing
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6/19/18
shows that wont make it to Jan 15th 2019#9
Posted: 7/8/18 at 12:31pm

UncleCharlie said: "A Bronx Tale
"

Already closing in August 

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Jordan Catalano
Broadway Legend
joined:10/9/05
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shows that wont make it to Jan 15th 2019#10
Posted: 7/8/18 at 12:45pm

Unless I’m missing something, the only new musicals this season are

The Cher Show
Getting the Band Back Together
Head Over Heels
King Kong
Pretty Woman
The Prom

Which (besides being an absolutely pathetic crop of shows) means producers might try to hold onto them (and the other shows) for as long as humanly possible.

Updated On: 7/8/18 at 12:45 PM
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SomethingPeculiar
Broadway Legend
joined:6/15/14
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shows that wont make it to Jan 15th 2019#11
Posted: 7/8/18 at 12:47pm

In order of likeliness-of-closing:

Currently running:
Head Over Heels
OOTI
Spongebob
Summer
Kinky Boots
School of Rock
????:   Beautiful, Anastasia, Waitress, Chicago

Unknowns/giving the benefit of the doubt:
Getting The Band Back Together
Pretty Woman
The Prom


I suspect we will hear an announcement by the end of August or sooner for any of the long-running shows (Kinky, SoR, Beautiful, Anastasia)

Updated On: 7/8/18 at 12:47 PM
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Kitsune
Broadway Star
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shows that wont make it to Jan 15th 2019#12
Posted: 7/8/18 at 1:07pm

Out of curiosity - what's the likelihood that other shows will announce a transfer to Broadway for this season? I feel like Hadestown and Jagged Little Pill keep getting mentioned.`

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SomethingPeculiar
Broadway Legend
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shows that wont make it to Jan 15th 2019#13
Posted: 7/8/18 at 1:14pm

Kitsune said: "Out of curiosity - what's the likelihood that other shows will announce a transfer to Broadway for this season? I feel like Hadestown and Jagged Little Pill keep getting mentioned.`"

Hadestown, Jagged Little Pill, Moulin Rouge, and Tootsie seem like likely contenders for the spring (and possibly the 4 Best Musical nominees), but they have not announced theaters. And maybe Ain't Too Proud and Soft Powder?

WestEndGal
Stand-by
joined:6/25/18
Stand-by
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shows that wont make it to Jan 15th 2019#14
Posted: 7/8/18 at 1:16pm

I think Waitress will be fine but it lost a considerable amount in revenue these past 2 weeks without it’s named star. Went from grossing $947k and $985k for Katharine McPhee’s last 2 weeks to $763 and $723 for these past 2 weeks with her understudy Stephanie Torns playing Jenna.

I think to survive long term it’s gonna need to keep bringing in bigger names to play Jenna, or I can see Sara Bareilles stepping back into the role for a bit to boost figures if needed. She brings in the mega bucks so wouldn’t even need to do particularly long stints.

freewilma
Leading Actor
joined:2/18/15
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shows that wont make it to Jan 15th 2019#15
Posted: 7/8/18 at 1:21pm

Kitsune said: "Out of curiosity - what's the likelihood that other shows will announce a transfer to Broadway for this season? I feel like Hadestown and Jagged Little Pill keep getting mentioned.`"

 

Dave and Beetlejuice are both having runs in DC in the next few months.  Either one of them has the potential to make their way into the season in 2019.  

 

 

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disneybroadwayfan22
Broadway Legend
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shows that wont make it to Jan 15th 2019#16
Posted: 7/8/18 at 2:36pm
Anastasia is selling tickets through next summer
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SomethingPeculiar
Broadway Legend
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shows that wont make it to Jan 15th 2019#17
Posted: 7/8/18 at 2:43pm

disneybroadwayfan22 said: "Anastasia is selling tickets through next summer"

A lot of shows are (including, bizarrely, Once on this Island), but it doesn't really mean the show is guaranteed to last that long. If it closes early, the Telecharge will have to refund the people who purchased for shows after the closing date.

Updated On: 7/8/18 at 02:43 PM
broadwaysfguy
Broadway Legend
joined:5/27/14
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shows that wont make it to Jan 15th 2019#18
Posted: 7/8/18 at 4:19pm
ooti
spongebob
head over heels
summer

all likely gone well before jan-others depend on summer strength
Micki7
Swing
joined:7/6/18
Swing
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7/6/18
shows that wont make it to Jan 15th 2019#19
Posted: 7/8/18 at 5:42pm
Soft Power not Soft Powder

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