The Fate of Once On This Island

[benwilsonn.xo]

Thoughts?

[msmp]

Closes after Labor Day, maybe a smidgen longer if it wins the Best Revival Tony.

[dramamama611]

And it diesnt look like it's got much of a chance to win.

Maybe thrre will be a tony miracle and its performance tonight will create a whirlwind for the box office.

Sadly, I agree that it shutters labor day.

[upinlights]

I don't think it's true that it doesn't have a chance at the revival Tony... if I remember correctly, the NYT poll said that 39% of voters voted for My Fair Lady, and 35% for OOTI. Even NYT said it was too close to call. 

[haterobics]

benwilsonn.xo said: "Thoughts?"

One the producers pull the plug, it's over.

[Impossible2]

So basically modern day Broadway is really just a big tax right off for rich people when the shows flop?

It seems like 1 out of every 100 shows actually ever recoups their money and 1 out of every 500 that is truly successful financially.

[BroadwayConcierge]

I'm predicting an August 19 closing date. That's the end of Merle Dandridge's limited return to the show, and I think they'll wrap it up then.

[BroadwayConcierge]

Impossible2 said: "It seems like1 out of every 500 shows actually ever recoups their money and 1 out of every 500 that is truly successful financially."

The New York Times has reported an approximate 25% recoupment success rate on Broadway. 1/500 is low

[Impossible2]

BroadwayConcierge said: "Impossible2 said: "It seems like1 out of every 500 shows actually ever recoups their money and 1 out of every 500 that is truly successful financially."

TheNew York Timeshas reported an approximate 25% recoupment success rate on Broadway. 1/500 is low "

It's shocking considering how much it now costs to go.

It seems the only people who make any money is the theatres themselves.

[haterobics]

Impossible2 said: "It seems the only people who make any money is the theatres themselves."

Yup, only them.. and the actors, and the costumers, and the stage crew, and the musicians, and the conductor, and the writer, and the director, and the lyricist, and the songwriter, and the front of house staff, and the bartenders, and the publicity team, and the advertising team, and the dressers, and the security, and the hundreds of others who are paid when a show is running.

[Impossible2]

haterobics said: "Impossible2 said: "It seems the only people who make any money is the theatres themselves."

Yup, only them.. and the actors, and the costumers, and the stage crew, and the musicians, and the conductor, and the writer, and the director, and the lyricist, and the songwriter, and the front of house staff, and the bartenders, and the publicity team, and the advertising team, and the dressers, and the security, and the hundreds of others who are paid when a show is running."

*sigh

You know what I meant smartarse x

[SomethingPeculiar]

I predict Labor Day, whether it wins tonight or not.

[qolbinau]

Impossible2 said: "Sobasically modern dayBroadway isreally just a big tax right off for rich people when the shows flop?

It seems like1 out of every 100 shows actually ever recoups their money and 1 out of every 500 that is truly successful financially."

While most shows don't recoup I don't think we can give OOTI a free pass for just being unlucky though/just a casualty of the industry. The show appeared to have been doomed from the very beginning because of unrealistic/unachievable financial planning. It appeared to have no path to success unless it was a Hamilton-like hit. This is not a typical flop where you can just scratch your head about why it didn't catch up - there has been some serious producing errors made.

[ScottyDoesn'tKnow2]

What's different about OotI financial planning/expectations from other productions?

[qolbinau]

The problem with OOTI is that it apparently can barely break even in this small theatre while selling out at modestly discounted prices. If this is true, it makes no sense why the Producer could have ever thought this show would be a hit unless 1. The costs became much, much higher than originally planned, and/or 2. They thought the show would be a Hamilton-like hit, selling out every show with zero discounting (which seems very unlikely for a revival of a relatively unknown property and no stars). Either way, this to me signals awful producing. This is unlike other shows (e.g., the Follies revival) that had a clear, achievable plan and manageable costs but simply did just not sustain the ticket sales over time. 

I know people love to jump on the Ken Davenport criticism train, and I greatly respect the artistic quality of many of the shows he has produced (ESPECIALLY this show, which was just an unbelievable experience for me). But it's hard not to look to the Producer in this instance and wonder what they were thinking. 


 

[Impossible2]

I loved this show and am actually thankful for the producers who present amazing staged works like this. 

Kagan may have stuffed up Great Comet in the end, but if it weren't for him producing the Broadway version I would never have seen what has become my favourite show of all time.

I just think it's sad they don't make back their investment even if something is moderately successful and loved by the audience that sees it as this and Comet were.

[natashalost]

Wait... OOTI's filling 88-100% of their seats every week how are they on the verge of closing? They are doing just about as good as anyone on Broadway right now.

 

EDIT:

Source - http://www.playbill.com/production/gross?production=0000015b-c587-dec3-a97f-dfafcf2f0000

[Olivia11]

BroadwayConcierge said: "I'm predicting an August 19 closing date. That's the end of Merle Dandridge's limited return to the show, and I think they'll wrap it up then."

I hope this isn’t true, as I have tickets for Labor Day weekend (though I knew it was possible, looking at the grosses). 

[mar6411]

It's the dollars that matter, not the seats.  Look at gross vs gross potential. 

[choitoy]

I was telling my sister that of the three musicals up for Best Revival, OOTI is the one that needs the win in order to survive.  MFL has the Lincoln Center subscription base, and seems to be fairly popular.  Carousel, though with some faults, recently opened and has some Broadway star power going for it to keep it open until at least the fall.  OOTI though seems to be on the bubble.  It opened a while ago, and with Lea leaving soon, it doesn't have a bankable "star" in the show.  I was looking at tickets (and bought one) for Lea Salonga's last show, and it's only half sold right now.  I hate to say it, but without a Best Musical Revival win, I think this show could be one of the first casualties post Tony awards, and I could actually see it closing as soon as Lea's last day.  Not that I'm wishing it ill, but just looking at the state of the three shows realistically.  

[VintageSnarker]

I was so happy they won for revival. I enjoyed both this show and My Fair Lady but I thought OOTI was a better production given the material they had to work with. I know not enough people (especially not enough people who haven't already seen the show) watch the Tony's for the performance to make a difference but maybe they can spin the revival win into something to keep it running a little longer.

[SomethingPeculiar]

SomethingPeculiar said: "I predict Labor Day, whether it wins tonight or not."

I stand by this (though I'd be happy to be wrong)

[JayElle]

Still closes...ticket sales are soft

 

[haterobics]

JayElle said: "Still closes...ticket sales are soft"

Depends how many people start buying tickets now, really. If the performance and the win don't drive the advance sales, then there's an issue. But not sure how we can base anything on the thing we can't know, which is the advance sales they ring up this week.

[ScottyDoesn'tKnow2]

CBS needs to make the Tony performance available on YouTube ASAP. It's the type of performance that is meant to be shared on social media.