New York Times TONY voter poll?

[musikman]

Does anyone know if they’re doing that again this year? I’d imagine it would have come out already, or is it coming later today or tomorrow?

[SomethingPeculiar]

It usually comes out the Thursday (or sometimes Friday) before the Tonys, right as voting is closing. If they're still doing it this year, I'd expect to see it today or tomorrow.

[BroadwayConcierge]

It’s been the Thursday before for the last two years. Waiting for it eagerly today!

[R. GreenFinch]

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/07/theater/2018-tony-awards-predictions-harry-potter.html

It's up!

[BroadwayConcierge]

Wow, what a bizarre response for Best Actor in a Musical. Guess it's much more of a toss-up than any of us think.

[BroadwayConcierge]

Also worth noting that they got a much bigger pool this year than last. It says they interviewed 110 voters for this year's piece; last year, they only spoke to 67.

[TexanAddams18]

BroadwayConcierge said: "Also worth noting that they got a much bigger pool this year than last. It says they interviewed 110 voters for this year's piece; last year, they only spoke to 67."

I actually wish it was closer to last years number. Last year they said Ben Platt had 2 votes to 1 over Karl and it left more to the imagination since it was under 10% of the voters. That being said, I'm completely shocked that Shalhoub is in the lead. 

[VotePeron]

I'd understand, but be dissapointed, if Shaloub won for Best Leading Actor. On the other hand, I'd be furious if Henry won. I just don't understand how you don't award Slater. 

Really wishing Groundhog Day would've held off; Andy could finally have gotten the Tony he was robbed of.

[Wayman_Wong]

Anyone remember how accurate last year's Times Tony poll was?

Or the year before? But I agree with VotePeron. It's a shame ''Groundhog Day'' didn't open THIS season. Andy would've won!

[GeorgeandDot]

Karl would've won this year. Last year, he was third on my list. Don't really think he was robbed. It's not like Ben Platt winning was any big surprise.

I'd be perfectly happy with Shalhoub winning. He gives a beautiful acting performance. Both him and Katrina bring such brilliant complexity to their roles. I'd be happy if they both win. Although, I think Slater gives a brilliant, triple threat performance.

I wish they spoke about the supporting categories. I think those are the categories that are almost completely open right now.

[JudyDenmark]

The Leading Actor in a Musical race really is fascinating. I'm pulling for Slater personally... but I'm mostly shocked that HHP wasn't mentioned at all. I feel like so many people I've talked to have him as their favorite!

[all_that_jazz]

What the hell is with abstaining. Your a tony voter your job is to see the nominated musicals and vote on the ones eligible. How hard is that best of the 4 nominated. Spoiled pretentious idiot. If you cant handle the job decline it and let others do it.

[BroadwayConcierge]

Wayman_Wong said: "Anyone remember how accurate last year's Times Tony poll was?

Or the year before? But I agree with VotePeron. It's a shame ''Groundhog Day'' didn't open THIS season. Andy would've won!"

These polls are known for being pretty dead-on. There's a reason we wait eagerly for them and don't scoff

[ScottyDoesn'tKnow2]

Interesting. The real race is in the revival category as it's close between MFL and OoTI. Sad to see Harry Hadden-Paton looking like he has no chance to win Best Actor in a Musical as I thought he gave an astounding performance as Henry Higgins and changed my standard of how Higgins should be portrayed as I much preferred his portrayal to Rex Harrison's classic portrayal.

I really wish it was closer between Ambrose and Lenk but I cannot begrudge Lenk for taking this one. She gives a luminous performance in a role that is tailor-made to fit her strengths. Ambrose was a total revelation as Eliza and really gave a distinct and different portrayal than the usual young sassy girl and thus provided Eliza with more depth and feeling. However, the difference between Lenk and Ambrose despite giving such outstanding performance is that Lenk is totally comfortable on that stage and gives a natural and nuanced performance as only a seasoned stage performer can give while I think Ambrose some times inadvertently reveals she's new to musical theatre.  I have no doubt that she will get stronger with more experience, though I think that was what made her so exciting in the role as she was not cut from the same cloth as most theater actors and she's way too cool for school off-stage in her interviews.

[BroadwayConcierge]

ScottyDoesn'tKnow2 said: "Sad to see Harry Hadden-Paton looking like he has no chance to win Best Actor in a Musical as I thought he gave an astounding performance as Henry Higgins and changed my standard of how Higgins should be portrayed as I much preferred his portrayal to Rex Harrison's classic portrayal."

Part of me wonders if he'll be this year's "upset" or surprise. If I were a Tony voter, I'd be voting for him in a heartbeat. He's generating such little awards attention—and yet I think he can still pull it off.

I also still wish Lenk and Ambrose could tie, somehow!

[msmp]

GeorgeandDot said: "Karl would've won this year. Last year, he was third on my list. Don't really think he was robbed. It's not like Ben Platt winning was any big surprise.

I'd be perfectly happy with Shalhoub winning. He gives a beautiful acting performance. Both him and Katrina bring such brilliant complexity to their roles. I'd be happy if they both win. Although, I think Slater gives a brilliant, triple threat performance.

I wish they spoke about the supporting categories. I think those are the categories that are almost completely open right now."

This. I opened it really wanting to see how voters were feeling on the featured actor/actress in a musical nominations.

 

[haterobics]

BroadwayConcierge said: "These polls are known for being pretty dead-on."

After the last election, I think I'll just wait for Sunday... rather than trust any polls. Especially in the NYT.

[ScottyDoesn'tKnow2]

How long has the NYTimes done this survey? I found some past ones, but they are actually not as easy to find as I thought they'd be.

[SomethingPeculiar]

The 2013 article claimed it was a race between Tom Hanks and Nathan Lane for Best Actor, and then Tracy Letts won. At this point, I think anything could happen in the Best Actor in a Musical and Best Musical Revival categories.

[musikman]

Honestly thrilled too see that Once on this Island has a shot.  I thought it was the best of the three revivals this year by far.  

[MadsonMelo]

I've said before and I will say it again, now with this poll as a support, Henry is a BIG THREAT to win.

[ScottyDoesn'tKnow2]

In 2016, 171 voting members participated and it was dead-on:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/06/09/theater/Survey-of-Tony-Award-Voters.html

Surprisingly, it was close between Jessica Lange and Lupita Nyong'o. For some reason I thought Lange was the expected winner that year.

Also, I know it's a joke, but using the 2016 election to gauge the trustworthiness of the poll isn't completely fair. A lot of the races in the states that flipped were close and within the margin of error. The polls did get the national vote correct as more people did vote for Hillary nationally than Trump. And unlike say Donald Trump, I don't know if people would be embarrassed to publicly admit that they would vote for Katrina Lenk and that's what people in polling call social desirability. Some people just give an answer they think the pollster wants to hear or is socially acceptable. And one final and important thing, many people conducting polls in the election randomly dial numbers and anybody could pick up, even people who ultimately will not show up to the poll and there's been writing about how way more people who said or were most likely going to vote for Hillary in those key states that flipped did not show up than for Trump. It's much less of a controlled sample. I think surveying about 1/8 of the voting members as it happened this year give us a pretty good direction of where these races are going. Also, the likelihood that they will send in a ballots is high because for one it's a much more convenient and easy process than voting in the Presidential election, and if they are Tony members and were willing to participate in this survey, most likely they are passionate members who live and breathe theatre and want to vote for the Tonys. Plus, there hasn't been on-going and constant polling going on making people feel like certain races are done deals so they don't have to vote.

I'm not saying they won't be wrong in certain categories, but I do think one has to consider a lot of factors before dismissing something.

[adamgreer]

I have a feeling, based on nothing scientific, that Joshua Henry is going to win.

[disneybroadwayfan22]

VotePeron said: "I'd understand, but bedissapointed, if Shaloub won for Best Leading Actor. On the other hand, I'd be furious if Henry won. I just don't understand how you don't award Slater.."

I'd actually be furious if Shaloub won. The role is beautiful and I didn't see Shaloub, but I imagine that Patton, Henry, and certainly Slater have meatful performances. And yes, like you said, I don't understand how you youldn't vote for him

[JudyDenmark]

adamgreer said: "I have a feeling, based on nothing scientific, that Joshua Henry is going to win."

I was talking to a Tony voter this morning who voted for Henry. Took everything in me to just smile and nod. 

(FWIW, I happen to really like Joshua Henry... just not in this. And not compared to Slater or HHP.)