Oscar Predictions

[LYLS3637]

The Academy Awards are this Sunday! While the acting categories seem to have solidified front runners, Best Picture looks to be the most difficult to predict. Any thoughts? These are the ones I'm going with:

Best Picture

Will Win: The Shape of Water

Should Win: Dunkirk or Call Me By Your Name

Best Director

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro

Should Win: Christopher Nolan

Best Actor

Will Win: Gary Oldman

Should Win: Timothee Chalamet

Best Actress

Will Win: Frances McDormand

Should Win: Frances McDormand

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Allison Janney

Should Win: Allison Janney

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Sam Rockwell

Should Win: Sam Rockwell

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: Get Out

Should Win: Three Billboards 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: Call Me By Your Name

Should Win: Call Me By Your Name

[spiderdj82]

As long as 3 Billboards doesn't win best picture or screenplay - I'll be happy.  HAAAATED that movie.   lol 

[ErikJ972]

spiderdj82 said: "As long as 3 Billboards doesn't win best picture or screenplay - I'll be happy. HAAAATED that movie. lol"

Agreed. Worst movie of the year. Hope it wins nothing.

[Mister Matt]

Best Picture

Will Win: Three Billboards

Should Win: Call Me By Your Name

Best Director

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro

Should Win: Guillermo del Toro

Best Actor

Will Win: Gary Oldman

Should Win: Timothee Chalamet

Best Actress

Will Win: Frances McDormand

Should Win: Frances McDormand

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Laurie Metlcalfe

Should Win: Laurie Metlcalfe

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Sam Rockwell

Should Win: Sam Rockwell

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: Three Billboards

Should Win: Three Billboards 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: Call Me By Your Name

Should Win: Call Me By Your Name

 

Loved Three Billboards and I'd be a little surprised if it didn't win (even though Call Me By Your Name was far and away my favorite).  I'm not sure why it would go to Shape of Water, which was cute and enjoyable, but I didn't see it much more than a Pan's Labyrinth/Amelie/Beauty and the Beast hybrid that's more style over substance.  Dunkirk or even Lady Bird would make more sense to me.  And it's a shame Coco wasn't nominated for Best Picture over Darkest Hour.  I hope I'm wrong about Goldman winning.  If it doesn't go to Chalemet, I'd rather see it go to Kaluuya or even Day-Lewis.

[adamgreer]

I’m curious why you think Metcalfe is going to win supporting actress when Janney has swept all the precursor awards. It doesn’t seem like much of a race anymore, honestly. I’d be shocked if Janney didn’t win. I haven’t seen Lady Bird, so I won’t get into who should or shouldn’t win.

[LYLS3637]

adamgreer said: "I’m curious why you think Metcalfe is going to win supporting actress when Janney has swept all the precursor awards. It doesn’t seem like much of a race anymore, honestly. I’d be shocked if Janney didn’t win. I haven’t seen Lady Bird, so I won’t get into who should or shouldn’t win. "

I actually think Janney is vulnerable— more than the other three. I Tonya was shut out of Best Picture and there’s a very good chance Lady Bird will lose in the other categories. If there’s a groundswell of Lady Bird support, it’d be in this category. 

[ErikJ972]

3 Billboards in very divisive and because of that I don't think it has any shot of winning. Especially the way voting for Best Picture works now. But who knows. They gave it to Crash one year.

Best Picture

Will Win: The Shape of Water

Should Win: The Shape of Water

Best Director

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro

Should Win: Guillermo del Toro

Best Actor

Will Win: Gary Oldman

Should Win: I didn't LOVE any of these performances but I guess I would pick Daniel Kaluuya

Best Actress

Will Win: Frances McDormand

Should Win: Margot Robbie

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Laurie Metlcalfe

Should Win: Laurie Metlcalfe

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Sam Rockwell

Should Win: Willem Dafoe

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: Lady Bird

Should Win: Get Out

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: Call Me By Your Name

Should Win: The Disaster Artist

[BIG BALONEY]

I predict the viewership will be down again. Poor ratings.

[ColorTheHours048]

Best Picture

Will Win: The Shape of Water

Should Win: Get Out/Lady Bird

Best Director

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro

Should Win: Guillermo del Toro

Best Actor

Will Win: Gary Oldman

Should Win: Timothee Chalamet

Best Actress

Will Win: Frances McDormand

Should Win: Saoirse Ronan

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Allison Janney

Should Win: Laurie Metcalf (God, talk about Sophie's Choice)

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Sam Rockwell

Should Win: Willem Dafoe

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: Get Out

Should Win: Get Out

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: Call Me By Your Name

Should Win: Call Me By Your Name

 

I disliked Call Me By Your Name, but I'm willing to give it credit where it succeeded. I thought Three Billboards was absolute garbage and would be happy to see it walk away with nothing. There are a couple movies I'm rooting for in this year's batch that I would have loved regardless of their award recognition (Get Out, Lady Bird, to a lesser extent The Shape of Water), but this year more than ever, I'm less enthused about Oscar season. The idea of them just grow sillier and sillier, shutting out excellent, groundbreaking films just because it doesn't fit a certain mold or didn't campaign hard enough. That being said, the horses I do have in the race, I'm very passionate about.

[henrikegerman]

(caveat: I have not seen Dunkirk)

Best Picture

Will Win: Three Billboards or Shape of Water - toss up, didn't love either of them, but I'm going with Three Billboards

Should Win: Phantom Thread

Best Director

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro (who should have won for the infiintely better Pan's Labyrinth)

Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, with nods to the not nominated Dee Rhys and Luca Guadagnino
for their extraordinary work
Best Actor

Will Win: Gary Oldman

Should Win: ok with Oldman but would prefer Timothee Chalamet

Best Actress

Will Win: Frances McDormand

Should Win: ok with McDormand but would prefer Sally Hawkins or the not nominated Vicky Krieps

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Allison Janney

Should Win: would prefer Laurie Metcalf or Mary J. Blige or the not nominated Holly Hunter to Janney (a fine but largely one note performance given the demands of the role), but if there had to be a single best performance among the extraordinary collective work of supporting actresses this year, in truth it's Lesley Manville's

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Sam Rockwell

Should Win: ok with Rockwell but would prefer Willem Dafoe

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: Get Out or Lady Bird - toss up

Should Win: a tie to two brilliantly written movies not nominated: Phantom Thread and The Square

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: Call Me By Your Name

Should Win: Call Me By Your Name

- James Ivory's first Oscar win will be the single most sentimentally satisfactory moment of the evening

[blaxx]

Will this be the third year in a row that a Mexican film maker wins best director?

[LYLS3637]

blaxx said: "Will this be the third year in a row that a Mexican film maker wins best director?"

Damien Chazelle is from Rhode Island. And there's already been three years in a row where a Mexican filmmaker won best director. Alfonso Cuaron and then Alejandro Inarritu x 2.

[Call_me_jorge]

All I care about is Best Song going to Sufjan Stevens for Mystery of Love, but we all know that ain’t happening

[ScottyDoesn'tKnow2]

Best Picture

Will Win: The Shape of Water or Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri

Should Win: Lady Bird or Call Me By Your Name

Best Director

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro

Should Win: Greta Gerwig

Best Actor

Will Win: Gary Oldman

Should Win: Timothee Chalamet

Best Actress

Will Win: Frances McDormand

Should Win: Saoirse Ronan or Sally Hawkins

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Allison Janney (ugh)

Should Win: Laurie Metcalf

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Sam Rockwell

Should Win: Sam Rockwell

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Should Win: Lady Bird

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: Call Me By Your Name

Should Win: Call Me By Your Name

[Mister Matt]

I’m curious why you think Metcalfe is going to win supporting actress when Janney has swept all the precursor awards.

I don't know.  She was the early favorite and I suppose I'm just being optimistic, but I've always felt it was hers to lose, regardless the other awards (which, year over year, are about as reliable as reading tea leaves).  Janney's great doing the Janney thing, but I think it's weird to give her an Oscar this time for what she usually does.  I've seen all the films and to me, Metcalfe is the obvious choice.  But then, I didn't hate Three Billboards, so what do I know?

[spiderdj82]

Even though I made my hate for "3 Billboards" known - I guess I should do my Oscar win wishes:

 

Best Picture

Will Win: The Shape of Water

Should Win: The Shape of Water

Best Director

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro

Should Win: Guillermo del Toro

Best Actor

Will Win: Gary Oldman

Should Win: Timothee Chalamet or Gary Oldman

Best Actress

Will Win: Frances McDormand

Should Win: Margo Robbi

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Allison Janney 

Should Win: Laurie Metcalf

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Sam Rockwell

Should Win: Willem Dafoe

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (I hope not) 

Should Win: Get Out 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: Call Me By Your Name

Should Win: Call Me By Your Name

[blaxx]

LYLS3637 said: "blaxx said: "Will this be the third year in a row that a Mexican film maker wins best director?"

Damien Chazelle is from Rhode Island. And there's already been three years in a row where a Mexican filmmaker won best director. Alfonso Cuaron and then Alejandro Inarritu x 2."

You're right!

[CorkySt.Clair]

While not one of the more contentious categories, anyone have bets on Best Score? I think they’re all pretty terrific, but Shape of Water is probably my favorite. I am a huge fan of Alexandre Desplat!

[willep]

Yeah, I would agree that I think score will go to Desplat for The Shape of Water, which was also my favorite.

[LYLS3637]

CorkySt.Clair said: "While not one of the more contentious categories, anyone have bets on Best Score? I think they’re all pretty terrific, but Shape of Water is probably my favorite. I am a huge fan of Alexandre Desplat!"

I enjoyed the score for Shape of Water, but Hans Zimmer's score for Dunkirk created an atmosphere unlike any other score I can think of.

[Jay Lerner-Z]

It seems to be the new normal that Best Picture/Director is split, so for that reason I think Three Billboards will win Best Picture (not being up for Director) and Guillermo will deservedly win the other.

The rest will in all likelihood go exactly as expected - Gary Oldman (ugh), Frances McDormand, Allison Janney & Sam Rockwell. The predictablity has really sucked some of the fun out of it for me, so I would like to be wrong.

I'd be so happy to see Agnés Varda win Best Documentary, becoming (I think) the oldest winner ever. Probably won't happen, though.

[spiderdj82]

"Shape of Water" and "Phantom Thread" have the best scores in my opinion.  "Phantom Thread" had a score that was more like a character in the movie though, so it barely edges it out for me to win. 

[WhizzerMarvin]

A pattern should become clear here...

Best Picture

Will Win: The Shape of Water

Should Win: Phantom Thread

Best Director

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro

Should Win: PT Anderson

Best Actor

Will Win: Gary Oldman

Should Win: Timothée and DDL (tie)

Best Actress

Will Win: Frances McDormand

Should Win: Vicky Krieps (write in)

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Allison Janney

Should Win: Lesley Manville

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Sam Rockwell

Should Win: The father from Foxtrot

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: Get Out

Should Win: Phantom Thread

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: Call Me By Your Name

Should Win: Call Me By Your Name

Phantom Thread should win all other awards resulting in the greatest sweep in Oscars history.

[sabrelady]

Ok will try again

Best Picture-  Three Billboards. Not my choice , but Shape of Water is SciFi and the Academy never votes for that.

Director- G Del Toro- The DGA has already anointed him  ( I would have preferred Gerwig but I'm biased)

Best Actress-  McDormand  is a lock. Feisty old lady in Righteous Anger overshadows the small more delicate work of  someone like Ronan.

Best Actor- Oldman- The Academy LOVES it when an actor  "disappears into a role" Kaluuya's  work in Get Out  really drives that film but again showy wins

Supporting Actor- Smart money says Rockwell but I wonder if he and Harrelson could split the vote  and Defoe might sneak in

 Best supporting Actress-  Janney ( prob) but I can't let go of Metcalf  and potential tie OR if the vote truly splits then  maybe Manville

Screenplay- McDonagh-  3 Billboards is the kinda stuff the Academy loves. My preference would be for Peele. Get Out works on so many levels- could still happens if the academy remembers OscarSoWhite.

Adaptation -  Ivory. Cos he's Ivory and Call Me By Your Name really  made the love story from the book more accessible .

Score - Zimmer Unless some old folks who din't see any of the stuff tick Williams just cos they recognize his name ( don't think it doesn't happen at one point the caregivers of the older members were the ones filling out the ballot!)

That's my Canadian 2 cents ( 1.75 US)

[GeorgeandDot]

Best Picture-
Will Win: Three Billboards
Should Win: The Shape of Water, Lady Bird, or Call Me By Your Name

Best Actor-
Will Win: Gary Oldman
Should Win: Timothee Chalamet

Best Actress-
Will Win: Frances McDormand
Should Win: Margot Robbie

Best Supporting Actress-
Will Win: Allison Janney
Should Win: Laurie Metcalf

Best Supporting Actor-
Will Win: Sam Rockwell
Should Win: Sam Rockwell

Best Director-
Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro
Should Win: Guillermo Del Toro

Best Screenplay-
Will Win: Three Billboards
Should Win: Lady Bird

Best Adapted Screenplay-
Will Win: Call Me By Your Name
Should Win: Call Me By Your Name

Best Cinematography-
Will Win: Blade Runner
Should Win: The Shape of Water

Best Score-
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Phantom Thread or The Shape of Water

Best Animated Feature-
Will Win: Coco
Should Win: Coco