The Over/Under on how long DEH will run

[RaisedOnMusicals]

Just for fun, I'm setting the DEH over/under number at 1500 performances, which I think equates to just a bit over 31/2 years. You want the over or the under? I'm taking the over myself  

 

 

 

[GeorgeandDot]

Idk, we'll have to see how the show does post-Platt.  It'll probably do really well though.

[RaisedOnMusicals]

GeorgeandDot said: "Idk, we'll have to see how the show does post-Platt. It'll probably do really well though."

Of course you don't know. That's what makes it fun. If an odds maker sets a good over/under number, about 50% of the bettors will take each side. ??

[UncleCharlie]

I'll take the under. Once Platt leaves, I think the enthusiasm will slowly start to fall off over the next 12-18 months. I don't think it hits 3 years.

[rodrigo_ca]

I think Ill take the under. Perhaps 5+ years, but it will not hit 10. Once the world starts to move away from the themes of the show as trending subjects, crowd will die down more and more. That's what makes huge blockbusters huge: either they lack specific themes and specific discussions (I mean, nobody got out of Mamma Mia discussing anything) or they work on allegories that could be applied to a large number of subjects.

[Lot666]

UncleCharlie said: "I'll take the under. Once Platt leaves, I think the enthusiasm will slowly start to fall off over the next 12-18 months. I don't think it hits 3 years."

Yep.

 

[Call_me_jorge]

I think it will add 6 months to what next to normal achieved. 

[RaisedOnMusicals]

Call_me_jorge said: "I think it will add 6 months to what next to normal achieved."

I know that DEH has been compared to Next To Normal by some here in the past, but such comparison is patently absurd. The only commonality is the director. N2N was not a financial success in any way whatsoever. It continually grossed between $250,000-300,000 per week, and never came close to selling out in any given week. Not once.In fact, in most weeks it did less than 50% of capacity.

I'm taking the over because to me it seems as if this show has become the must see show for teens of both sexes, much as Wicked was the must see show for teenage girls. So that's a constantly replenishing audience. In addition, I've spoken to so many people who have seen the show ranging in age from teens to those in their mid 70's, and like it or not, the show touches people emotionally across every demographic. So unlike other shows that are truly geared towards teens, this show seems to resonate emotionally with people of all ages, which will keep the word of mouth very postive.

It's reasonable to predict that the demand for the show will decrease after Platt leaves, but I don't think it will. There hasn't been a sign of that happening yet, and I think that the show is the show no matter who stars in it. So yes, unlike some (many) here, I do think that the show has become a cultural phenomenon and that's why I'm taking the over 1500 performance "wager". But who knows? The show might close in a year. I just don't think it will.

 

[Alex Kulak2]

I'm going to bet an even 2000

[RaisedOnMusicals]

Alex Kulak2 said: "I'm going to bet an even 2000"

So you're betting the over. :)  (Meaning over 1500 which is the over/under number)

 

[Call_me_jorge]

Alex Kulak2 said: "I'm going to bet an even 2000"

Is their 2000th performance on a Sunday?

[chuckydisc]

rodrigo_ca said: "I think Ill take the under. Perhaps 5+ years, but it will not hit 10."

Me thinks you don't know how over/under works.

 

[RaisedOnMusicals]

chuckydisc said: "rodrigo_ca said: "I think Ill take the under. Perhaps 5+ years, but it will not hit 10."

Me thinks you don't know how over/under works.

Ya think?  :)  But for those of you who don't, let me explain. An over/under bet is a number that in theory represents a 50/50 proposition as determined by the oddsmakers. So for example, if they think that the NY Mets will be a 500 team next season, they will set the over/under at 81 games (it's a 162 game season.) So one bets the over if they think they'll win more than 81, and vice versa. And if it's a "push", meaning they win exactly 81, no one wins except the bookies. Same with scores in an NFL Youi'll see an over under set on points scored in a game, like 49 1/2. (The half is there to avoid pushes). You either bet the over (49.5) or the under.

So here, the proposition is that DEH runs for 1500 performances. If you think it will run for more than that, you take the over, and if you think it will run for less, you take the under. Get it? No one is asking for a prediction as to how long it's gonna run, it's just a 50/50 hypothetical bet. Enter one and all.

 

[Wick3]

I think it will be over 1500 performances.

One driving factor here will be student groups (ranging from middle school to college) who will make a NYC trip and watch this show. 

[BroadwayRox3588]

I'm gonna be bold here, and take the over. But perhaps not by much.

[kcguy]

I'll definitely take over.

I think locals want to see Ben - but I think for most tourists the show is going to be the draw. It has broken thru to mainstream America the way few shows do.

 

[RndmAnswrs4RndmQstns]

I'm taking under.

I think the fact that it is so popular with teens means it's in an even more precarious spot. People, especially teens, will move on long before it hits that many performances, I think.

[ebizzle]

Under as well. I think it'll close by the end of next year 

[bear88]

I could be very wrong, but I will take the over too.

As good as Ben Platt is, and as much as I think he elevated the material and covered its flaws, I just don't think he is the only young actor who can capably play the role. It didn't start out as the Ben Platt Show, and while his departure will eliminate some of the buzz, it's the musical that most people are coming to see.

The Next to Normal comparison doesn't work. Dear Evan Hansen is about a teenager, who as played by Platt, managed to hold audience sympathy (regardless of whether people think that is deserved). Next to Normal is about an adult woman, and the show is quite depressing. 

Dear Evan Hansen has several sympathetic adults, especially Evan's mother. Many parents at the show I attended clearly identified with her plight. I think it's a very well-crafted musical that can last beyond 1,500 performances,  especially because it's inexpensive to run. Couldn't it remain profitable if the $1.6 million box office is cut in half?

That said, I could be wrong. The show doesn't work without a sympathetic,  excellent Evan. The balance is tricky. Maybe people lose interest quickly without Platt. I will be curious to see how it plays out.

[Jarethan]

I think that bar is off by 100%.  I give it 3000 minimum.  

Beyond the fact that it is clearly selling well after Platt leaves, It is also relevant that this is a small show.  I am guessing that it has a low weekly nut and will be able to take advantage of that for years, a la Chicago.  (Let's face it, Chicago would have closed years ago  if it didn't have such a low breakeven).  Why would Evan Hansen's be any more...it has a smaller cast, I assume the orchestra is probably similar sized, etc.  

More importantly, the passion around this show exceeds anything I can ever recall, other than Hamilton and, possibly, A Chorus Line.  (IMO, Lion King, Phantom, and Wicked are humungous hits, and legions have loved every one of those shows, but passion is a whole other dimension.  Other than teenage girls for Wicked, I think the degree of passion around Evan Hansen far exceeds those shows). 

I am 66 and the number of people I know who are in my age group and think it is one of the best shows they have ever seen is staggering.  The millennials see themselves and their issues in DEH, even if they are not all outsiders to the extent that Evan is; older people see (in addition to a well written show with a great score) their children and challenges they faced when they were growing up.  I could build a long, boring defense that that emotional pull is even more significant than for Millennials.

Re losing ground after Platt leaves, I say 'bologna'. Ben Platt is replaceable, just as Carol Channing was replaceable, and Zero Mostel was replaceable, and more recently Idina Menzel and Kristin Chenoweth in Wicked, etc.  When stars of musicals have not been replaceable, it has generally been either because they were so famous that people couldn't fathom seeing it without them (which I am sure is one of Scott Rudin's worries since, somewhere along the way seeing Dolly became almost exclusively about seeing Bette Midler rather than seeing Hello Dolly); or the show was not any good (or at least not as good as the star) and the star was the only thing keeping it opened in the first place  (e.g., The Boy From Oz or If/Then).  (I am consciously excluding shows that were running out of steam when the stars left...the downward curve was already in place).

[little_sally]

I think it'll last about 3 years. Like Spring Awakening and In the Heights did.

[Jarethan]

They were NEVER the hits that Evan Hansen is.  Comparison is absurd.

[mpkie]

I'll take over. I think it will last up to the 5 year mark.

[Itonlytakesajourney]

I'll take over. It can last for 3 1/2 years easily, possibly getting up to 4 or 5. Obviously, DEH is not Hamilton and will never be, but DEH is most similar to BOM or Matilda in recent years (in terms of word of mouth, awards, and possible run time) 

[BroadwayConcierge]

I predict people are generally underestimating how sharp a decline we'll see once Platt leaves in a month and a half. I honestly think a tremendous amount of sales are riding on him being in the role.

So, I'll take the under.