NY Times Tony Voter Poll

[TexanAddams18]

Posted: 6/8/17 at 7:54pm

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/08/theater/tony-voters-point-to-tight-races-and-sure-bets.html 

[Dancingthrulife2]

Posted: 6/8/17 at 8:30pm

So Bette is still taking the Tony despite these weeks' mishaps.

[dianamorales]

Posted: 6/8/17 at 9:10pm

This article gave me so much unnecessary anxiety. It polls less than 10% of the voters. i wouldn't bother listening to it.

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 6/8/17 at 9:31pm

Except they are often reliable. They've interviewed less than that before to accurate results. The Fun Home/Curious Incident year, the Times polled 44 tony voters and everything they predicted came true. It is a much better barometer than any pre-Tony awards show like the Outer Critics or Drama Desk. They admit a few categories are too close to call, but this poll has a great track record.

I just wish they would start asking about featured acting races and directing, because some of those categories are really tough to call. 

[bear88]

Posted: 6/8/17 at 9:51pm

That's a healthy percentage, and it reinforces the conventional wisdom. Bette Midler and Hello, Dolly are locks, and Ben Platt is a very safe bet, as is Kevin Kline. These are not surprises.

The closest, high-profile competition is for Best Musical, and it's a two-horse race between Dear Evan Hansen and Come From Away. That's been anticipated for a while, and the Times story only confirms it. Great Comet, to my chagrin but not to my surprise, is not a factor. (These sorts of contests tend to narrow to binary choices.)

To me, the biggest question is whether the Hello, Dolly wave lifts other nominees from the revival in close races, and whether Great Comet underperforms in terms of awards. It will certainly collect some technical awards, but it could easily lose in every major category, especially if voters are focused on Dolly, DEH, and Come From Away.

I still think Tony voters will spread the wealth, giving shows credit for their unique strengths, but the field of winning shows in significant categories may be pretty small. A win by Come From Away for Book would not surprise me at all; at this point, it seems likely. Dear Evan Hansen seems like a solid favorite for Score. I like Gavin Creel's chances more over Lucas Steele if Dolly is going to dominate. And Best Director? Rachel Chavkin may have a tough time, despite her extraordinary work. But if her show is an afterthought for Best Musical, that may not bode well for her. I still think she will win, but I'm a lot less certain now. It's a tough category.

Updated On: 6/9/17 at 09:51 PM

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 6/8/17 at 10:13pm

My first thought at the Great Comet comment was also about Chavkin. She's been predicted to win for a while, but Im less certain now. Michael Greif didn't win for Rent, so if Great Comet isn't in the competition for best musical, they could just throw director his way to make up for it.

And Im very eager to see if Rudin's campaign blitz will pay off for A Dolls House. I personally prefer it over Oslo, so Im hoping it surprises for a win. Glad to see the race is so close, lots of deserving plays this year

[theater_tech]

Posted: 6/8/17 at 10:22pm

All these predictions of Chavkin losing is genuinely making me sad. I was certain that she would win, and she very much deserves to. What she did with Comet is pure genius. 

[RaisedOnMusicals]

Posted: 6/8/17 at 10:22pm

 If CFA beats DEH for Best Musical, it will (in my opinion, of course) be a farce of epic proportions. Putting aside the fact that the score of DEH is far superior, and putting aside the fact that DEH provides one of the greatest performances of the last decade, if not longer, just look at the passionate debate on this board about the moral ambiguity of DEH. This is a show that produces passionate response and debate. and CFA, blah. It's a fun show, now move on. It's impossible for me to believe that Tony voters will hold a show with a morally flawed character against it because of that flaw. It's actually one of the things that makes the show great.

[froote]

Posted: 6/8/17 at 10:29pm

theater_tech I wouldn't worry, her work is undeniable and there's no alternative anywhere near as strong. I like Greif but his work on DEH is just decent.

RaisedOnMusicals it's funny because around ten minutes ago reading this thread I was thinking what a farce of epic proportions it will be if DEH wins.

[RaisedOnMusicals]

Posted: 6/8/17 at 10:39pm

froote said: "theater_tech I wouldn't worry, her work is undeniable and there's no alternative anywhere near as strong. I like Greif but his work on DEH is just decent.

RaisedOnMusicals it's funny because around ten minutes ago reading this thread I was thinking what a farce of epic proportions it will be if DEH wins.

Just what I would have expected from you, froote. You've been very consistent in your hatred of DEH.

 

[froote]

Posted: 6/8/17 at 10:40pm

And you've been consistent in your love. Almost like this is a place to share positive and negative opinions on shows.

[icecreambenjamin]

Posted: 6/8/17 at 10:46pm

DEH winning would not be a farce of epic proportions.  It was the best reviewed musical of the year and is by far the most financially successful.  You're allowed to not like the show, but let's not forget the facts.  DEH is the hot new musical and it winning should not be particularly shocking or ridiculous.

CFA winning would be a farce of epic proportions, IMO, because it really is not as well written or as well executed as it's fellow nominees.  People seem to like the show because of it's relevance and spirit, but everyone that I know, personally, has mentioned the noticeable flaws in it's writing and staging, even more than DEH.  CFA is, IMO, the weakest of the four nominees and I am truly baffled by the love that it has received.  I really do think that people will look back on it as a horrible mistake if CFA wins over such shows as DEH and The Great Comet.

[froote]

Posted: 6/8/17 at 10:50pm

So it wouldn't be a farce if DEH won because it's critically acclaimed and financially successful but it would be if CFA won even though it's also critically acclaimed and financially successful.

And DEH should win because there's been a lot of discussion on its merits and flaws but CFA shouldn't because people have discussed its merits and flaws?
 

Updated On: 6/8/17 at 10:50 PM

[icecreambenjamin]

Posted: 6/8/17 at 10:54pm

You are so negative and defensive.  Why are you always hissing and spitting all over DEH like some kind of rabid animal.  Take a break, girl.  Calm down.

[froote]

Posted: 6/8/17 at 10:55pm

I'm really not doing anything different to you, just talking about different shows. Some self awareness would be good.

[icecreambenjamin]

Posted: 6/8/17 at 11:02pm

I'm tired of your persistent hatred of DEH.  If you don't like it, fine, but let those who do like it, like it without feeling like we're being ridiculous for doing so.

[BroadwayRox3588]

Posted: 6/8/17 at 11:02pm

As a previous poster stated, this will inevitably be a place for positive and negative opinions of shows. I don't know any show that is universally loved by this board. I love Anastasia. It's my favorite show of the season. (Yes, even more than DEH.) But should I get down on the people who don't like it (of which there are A LOT)? Of course not. It allows for healthy discussion of differing opinions. If someone is allowed to fawn over DEH, then another person should be able to "hiss and spit" over it, just as much, without being told to "take a break." I love DEH. I think it's a brilliant piece of theatre. But I am perfectly okay with others not liking it (and there are plenty). That's part of what I love about art. Different strokes for different folks.

(And I am not on anybody's side here. I'm on the side of everyone's opinions being equally valid)

Updated On: 6/8/17 at 11:02 PM

[froote]

Posted: 6/8/17 at 11:04pm

icecreambenjamin said: "I'm tired of your persistent hatred of DEH.  If you don't like it, fine, but let those who do like it, like it without feeling like we're being ridiculous for doing so."

I have never told anyone they were wrong for liking it or tried to get them to stop. Stating negative opinions on the show is no different than what you do with Come From Away.

Agree with your post BroadwayRox3588.

Updated On: 6/8/17 at 11:04 PM

[icecreambenjamin]

Posted: 6/8/17 at 11:06pm

Broadwayrox, I agree with what you're saying, but Froote has been particularly relentless with their DEH hate.  There's nothing wrong with not enjoying a show, but you shouldn't go out of your way to try to put people down for enjoying it.

Updated On: 6/8/17 at 11:06 PM

[froote]

Posted: 6/8/17 at 11:06pm

How have I put anyone down?

[icecreambenjamin]

Posted: 6/8/17 at 11:07pm

froote said: "How have I put anyone down?

 

It's just something about your tone.

 

[froote]

Posted: 6/8/17 at 11:09pm

Okay so in other words I've done nothing to put anyone down. That's what I thought. Literally all I did in this post was take someone else's negative opinion about a show and apply it to another show. If I'm wrong for doing that then so is the original poster. You can't pick and choose whether someone's tone is off depending on if you agree with their opinion or not. It's hilarious that you accuse me of being defensive and putting people down when you compared me to a rabid animal for simply stating that I don't think DEH would be a worthy winner.

Updated On: 6/8/17 at 11:09 PM

[cam5y]

Posted: 6/9/17 at 3:11am

froote said: "Okay so in other words I've done nothing to put anyone down. That's what I thought. Literally all I did in this post was take someone else's negative opinion about a show and apply it to another show. If I'm wrong for doing that then so is the original poster. You can't pick and choose whether someone's tone is off depending on if you agree with their opinion or not. It's hilarious that you accuse me of being defensive and putting people down when you compared me to a rabid animal for simply stating that I don't think DEH would be a worthy winner."

This. Many people who prefer DEH seem incapable of realising that their opinion of the show is just that, an opinion. 

[icecreambenjamin]

Posted: 6/9/17 at 3:17am

No it's fine that other people don't like DEH, but I happen to find CFA to be an appallingly terrible show and it would be absolutely hilarious if it won Best Musical.

[cam5y]

Posted: 6/9/17 at 3:17am

icecreambenjamin said: "No it's fine that other people don't like DEH, but I happen to find CFA to be an appallingly terrible show and it would be absolutely hilarious if it won Best Musical."

And I (and others) feel that, but about DEH.

Updated On: 6/9/17 at 03:17 AM