Tony nom predix at GoldDerby.com: 12 experts, including Variety's Gordon Cox, Matt Windman, Michael Musto (and even me)

[Wayman_Wong]

Twelve journalists from Variety, Rolling Stone, AM New York, TheaterMania and more make Tony nomination predictions.

* Best Musical: 9 out of 12 predict ''Dear Evan Hansen'' wins

* Best Play: 6 predict ''Oslo,'' and 5 predict ''Sweat''

* Best Actor in a Musical: 9 out of 12 predict Ben Platt

* Best Actress in a Musical: 12 out of 12 predict Bette Midler

* Best Actor in a Play: 10 out of 12 predict Kevin Kline

* Best Actress in a Play: 9 out of 12 predict Laurie Metcalf

For more predix on all the acting, directing and book & score:

http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/expert-predictions/tony-awards-nominations-2017/best-musical/sort/recent/

[zzdawgg]

Alright. 

[Wayman_Wong]

By the way, GoldDerby.com welcomes all theater lovers to make their Tony nominations predictions there, too. Register. It's easy and fun. And here are the odds for many of the Tony categories.

http://www.goldderby.com/odds/combined-odds/tony-awards-nominations-2017/

[Rainah]

Wow, no love for Lucas Steele on there... surprising 

[Trish2]

GoldDerby is such a busy-looking, sloppy site. Surprised they haven't streamlined it with an "at a glance" type format. Plus, some of those "editors" look like teenagers.

[Wayman_Wong]

Trish2, just out of curiosity: Who are ''some of those 'editors' [who] look like teenagers''? I'm not sure that looking young automatically disqualifies someone's qualifications or opinions, but ...

As for the Tony nomination predictions at GoldDerby.com, I'll vouch for the now-13 professional journalists in the group, the mass majority of whom I know. Individually, we can be as right or as wrong as anyone else, regardless how old or young we look.

[bjh2114]

I mean the fact that many of these people are predicting a nomination for Barbara Barrie is pretty telling when it comes to how much they actually know.  One of them even predicted a nomination for Holland Taylor.  I mean... good performances!  But completely not frontrunners for nominations in an already crowded category.

[Markie27]

I don't want to be mean but the critics from the goldderby site itself clearly don't know what they are voting for.   They are all over the place with their predictions.   I found that the posts from the prediction thread here at broadwayworld message board more reliable that most of the critics in the panel accumulated by goldderby.  Not surprising though since goldderby is really more of an Oscar prognosticator.  

[Wayman_Wong]

''I mean the fact that many of these people are predicting a nomination for Barbara Barrie is pretty telling when it comes to how much they actually know.''

We really don't know anything until the nominations come out. Each year, there are surprises and ''snubs'' most no one predicted. I'm not predicting Barbara Barrie, but I don't think it's that far-fetched that others are. Lots of people love her; she's 85 and her Broadway credits date back to 1955 , and she's no slouch in the awards arena: She once tied for Best Actress at Cannes; she's a Drama Desk winner, plus a Tony nominee (''Company'' ), an Oscar nominee (''Breaking Away'' ) and a 3-time Emmy nominee.

If anyone here thinks they can make better Tony predictions, GoldDerby.com welcomes you. Put your money where your mouth is, and put yourself on record, and you can win the bragging rights!

 

[Auggie27]

Committee determined nominations are always very different from those that are exclusively peer-chosen. It certainly leaves room for shocks -- there are some almost every year -- because they are based on a specific group of people attending for months and the voting, not merely a tally of mailed in ballots. The eligibility determinations, made all season, are a factor. Performances end up highlighted as they are singled out for placement in categories. It doesn't make the Tonys any fairer, as some say, just more eclectic, certainly.   

[Kad]

Predicting the nominations is tough... there are no reliable precursors, so it largely depends on other factors.

[Wick3]

Is this an all-male club? Where are the female journalists? I'm sure there are female Tony voters too!

[Wayman_Wong]

Wick3, thanks for your query. So I forwarded it to Tom O'Neil, who runs GoldDerby.com. For the record, women have participated in the Tony predictions in the past, but some of them (i.e., Melissa Bernardo) are no longer available. O'Neil says he's also invited several women this season, but they declined for various reasons.

But keep your eyes peeled. O'Neil still has some invites out to other women in the wings, and hopes they'll be aboard soon. Meantime, Gold Derby regular Susan Haskins (Theater Talk) will return again this year to make winner predictions.

[Wayman_Wong]

Ben Zausmer of the Hollywood Reporter says he has a mathematical formula that'll predict the Tony winners. He claims to input data from the Outer Critics Circle, Drama Desk & Drama League nominations and an aggregate of critics' reviews into his computer, and his computer gives him the likeliest winners.

However, his computer's results don't look that dissimilar from those of us who use past Tony history, precursor awards and old-fashioned instinct to make educated guesses. See what you think ...

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/2017-tony-predictions-based-a-mathematical-model-998671