Handicapping 2016/2017 Best Musical

[Up In One]

We seem to have enough information on all the new musicals coming in this season - and there are many - to start handicapping the Tony nominations for best new musical. With so many in contention there may be five nominees and with Natasha, Evan and Groundhog seemingly having a lock  on the first three spots what are our thoughts on the other two possibilities from this list?

NEW MUSICALS:
Natasha Pierre*
Dear Evan Hansen*
Ground Hogs Day*
In Transit
Anastasia
Come From Away
War Paint
Amelie
Bandstand
A Bronx Tale
Charlie & The Chocolate Factory

 

[HogansHero]

We do NOT "seem to have enough information on all the new musicals coming in this season." Crawl back into your burrow for a few months.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

All I can say at this point is that it looks like a race between Dear Evan Hansen and Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812.

[Up In One]

I guess you don't pay attention to out of town and London reviews and buzz. Crawl? Thank you for that.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Though sometimes we see shows get good reviews out-of-town, but when they come to Broadway, the reviews aren't as good.

[Up In One]

Agreed on the possible change of heart or product but it's rare when a show gets a wholesale change between tryouts and Broadway. Groundhogs reviews including those from American reviewers seems to make it a no brainer. Of all the others only Come From Away has gotten consistent quality buzz. The rest seem to have issues. 

[Broadwaybeauty2]

Dear Evan Hansen for the win!

[QueenAlice]

Too early to say. Yes many of the springs new musicals have had runs elsewhere, but shows can change a lot before opening night in New York. There is very good buzz coming out of CTG on AMELIE so that might be one to watch out for.

Obviously, COMET and EVAN HANSEN will be nominated in lots of catagories.

[RaisedOnMusicals]

Amelie opens Tuesday in LA. Let's see what the "buzz" is about it then. 

[BroadwayConcierge]

It'll be an interesting race, though I'm very much looking forward to what's coming in the spring. As for the DEH versus Great Comet debate, I absolutely love both shows and think they're totally brilliant in each respect. However, I think parts of both DEH's book and score are a bit trite, and while Great Comet's production value is mindbogglingly good, the show itself doesn't really leave you with an emotional imprint/a storyline to write home about. Those are two shortcomings I think will definitely play a hand in deciding Best Musical, but we'll have to see the strength of the other contenders come April!

[HogansHero]

Up In One said: "I guess you don't pay attention to out of town and London reviews and buzz. Crawl? Thank you for that."

Actually, I pay attention to everything which is why I think prognosticating at this point is pointless. I thought my crawl reference was pretty clever.

I'll add that I think it is folly to pretend reviews and awards necessarily correlate.

[ACL2006]

I'd say the two locks right now are DEAR EVAN HANSEN & COME FROM AWAY. With the amount of new musicals this season, the nominations should include 5 shows.

2016 had 5 nominees, so I don't see why 2017 can't have 5 as well.

[Mike66]

Is "Holiday Inn" a revival?  Not that I think it is a contender -- just don't remember it being on Broadway before.

 

Thanks

[HogansHero]

ACL2006 said: "I'd say the two locks right now are DEAR EVAN HANSEN & COME FROM AWAY. With the amount of new musicals this season, the nominations should include 5 shows.

2016 had 5 nominees, so I don't see why 2017 can't have 5 as well. "

 

 

That's not how it works. There is only a 5th nominee if there are 3 or fewer points between the 4th and 5th place finisher, based on nominators voting for 4.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Mike66 said: "Is "Holiday Inn" a revival?  Not that I think it is a contender -- just don't remember it being on Broadway before."

It's a new show.

[HogansHero]

It is a new show but not a new property. The Admin committee has not ruled on it. RTC is calling it new. 

[Emma MK]

I hope that Come From Away gets a nomination as it was a fantastic roller-coaster of a show, one minute i was laughing the next i was crying, i adored it so much! Out of those listed ive only seen Come From Away and Groundhog Day and i can see them both getting nominations. Groundhog Day was so good that i had  to see it again a week later just because i needed to see it more, but sadly i saw it at the end of the run and only got to see it twice however i have 2 friends who saw it 4 times as they loved it so much.

 

As for Charlie, i cant see that getting a nomination unless they drastically change it from the London production. My friend (who saw GHD 4 times) adores Christian Borle but is debating seeing Charlie on Broadway because she hated the London one so much that she doesnt want to put herself through seeing it again XD

[VintageSnarker]

I agree that it's too early to say but based on the limited information, I think the creative awards races will be less interesting than the performance categories if they make it a fair fight.

[Alex Kulak2]

What about In Transit? I know it's not everybody's cup of tea, but maybe it'll get a few nods? Maybe a special award for it's vocal arrangements?

[HogansHero]

In Transit will probably have been forgotten long before nominations.

[markypoo]

 

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But for the thousand and first time: Just where is Spongebob?

[little_sally]

There is nothing award-worthy about In Transit.

[whatdoesntkillme]

markypoo said: "

 

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But for the thousand and first time: Just where is Spongebob?

 

"

waiting to get into the Lyric after Harry Potter closes

[bwayrose7]

While I agree that DEH and Great Comet seem the likeliest locks so far, but then we have War Paint, Amelie, Anastasia, Groundhog Day, and Come From Away that all have respectable reviews from pre-Broadway productions. I could frankly see any combination of those, and I can imagine this might be another 5-nominee year because there are so many quality shows coming in that nominators might be split.

Each show does have weaknesses, though, and I think it's a matter of how well the creatives can mask them and how much the critics hone in on them. War Paint is a dual-diva narrative and a star vehicle whose structure and storytelling were lukewarmly reviewed. Amelie is a very specific tone that may come across as either charming or twee. Anastasia needs rewrites, especially to its antagonist, and has to overcome the animation stigma. Groundhog Day, by its very nature, has to overcome the repetitive structure, and Come From Away, if politically and emotionally resonant, was noted to suffer from low-stakes-syndrome.

It's too early to tell how any of these will fare, although I would lean towards CFA, Anastasia, and Amelie at the moment, but that's liable to change when this barrage hits in the spring! I envy you NY'ers :)

[aaaaaa15]

Groundhog Day is not a lock. London and NY critics often don't agree and whilst Brantley liked it, his word is not always reliable in terms of awards attention. I do think it has a good chance at a nomination, but it's far from a lock, especiallly in such a strong year. And as someone that has seen it, I'd be truly shocked if it won.