The 2016 Tony NOMINATIONS Thread

[BroadwayConcierge]

With Drama Desk nominations now behind us, the "way too early" thread now nearing 20 pages in length, and the Tony Award nominations set to be announced in just five days, I figured now is the time to distill peoples' thoughts/predictions to one coherent thread, and have the official nominations thread set up and ready to go. We can make a new one in June for the award ceremony/winners themselves, but consider this the official NOMINATIONS thread.

Until Tuesday, feel free to post your final nomination predictions here or continue to bounce around your thoughts.

Nominations Announcement: Tuesday, May 3 at 8:30 a.m., announced by Patina Miller and Andrew Rannells 

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

I'll probably still continue to update my predictions, but here they are as of right now...

Best Musical:
Hamilton
School of Rock
Shuffle Along...
Waitress

Potential Spoiler: On Your Feet!

Best Play:
Eclipsed
The Father
The Humans
King Charles III

Best Revival of a Musical:
The Color Purple
Fiddler on the Roof
She Loves Me

If There's a Fourth Slot: Spring Awakening

Best Revival of a Play:
The Crucible
Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Noises Off
A View From the Bridge

Potential Spoiler: Blackbird

Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Musical:
Alex Brightman-School of Rock
Danny Burstein-Fiddler on the Roof
Lin-Manuel Miranda-Hamilton
Leslie Odom, Jr.-Hamilton
Benjamin Walker-American Psycho

Potential Spoiler: Zachary Levi-She Loves Me

Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Musical:
Laura Benanti-She Loves Me
Cynthia Erivo-The Color Purple
Audra McDonald-Shuffle Along...
Jessie Mueller-Waitress
Phillipa Soo-Hamilton

Potential Spoiler(s): Carmen Cusack-Bright Star; Ana Villafane-On Your Feet!

Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Play:
Gabriel Byrne-Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Jeff Daniels-Blackbird
Frank Langella-The Father
Tim Pigott-Smith-King Charles III
Mark Strong-A View From the Bridge

Potential Spoiler: Ben Whishaw-The Crucible

Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Play:
Jessica Lange-Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Lupita Nyong’o-Eclipsed
Sophie Okonedo-The Crucible
Nicola Walker-A View From the Bridge
Michelle Williams-Blackbird

Potential Spoiler: Laurie Metcalfe-Misery

Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Musical:
Gavin Creel-She Loves Me
Daveed Diggs-Hamilton
Jonathan Groff-Hamilton
Christopher Jackson-Hamilton
Billy Porter-Shuffle Along...

Potential Spoiler(s): Christopher Fitzgerald-Waitress; Adam Kantor-Fiddler on the Roof

Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Musical:
Danielle Brooks-The Color Purple
Renee Elise Goldsberry-Hamilton
Jennifer Hudson-The Color Purple
Jane Krakowski-She Loves Me
Jennifer Simard-Disaster!

Potential Spoiler(s): Jessica Hecht-Fiddler on the Roof; Lesli Margherita-Dames at Sea

Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Play:
Reed Birney-The Humans
John Gallagher, Jr.-Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Ciaran Hinds-The Crucible
Michael Shannon-Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Russell Tovey-A View From the Bridge

Potential Spoiler(s): David Furr-Noises Off; Richard Goulding-King Charles III

Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Play:
Pascale Armand-Eclipsed
Megan Hilty-Noises Off
Jayne Houdyshell-The Humans
Saoirse Ronan-The Crucible
Saycon Sengbloh-Eclipsed

Potential Spoiler(s): Phoebe Fox-A View From the Bridge; Zainab Jah-Eclipsed; Lydia Wilson-King Charles III

Best Direction of a Musical:
John Doyle-The Color Purple
Scott Ellis-She Loves Me
Thomas Kail-Hamilton
Bartlett Sher-Fiddler on the Roof
George C. Wolfe-Shuffle Along...

Best Direction of a Play:
Rupert Goold-King Charles III
Jonathan Kent-Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Joe Mantello-The Humans
Liesl Tommy-Eclipsed
Ivo van Hove-A View From the Bridge

Potential Spoiler: Jeremy Herrin-Noises Off

Best Original Score:
Bright Star-Music By Steve Martin & Edie Brickell, Lyrics By Edie Brickell
Hamilton-Music & Lyrics By Lin-Manuel Miranda
School of Rock-Music By Andrew Lloyd Webber, Lyrics By Glenn Slater
Waitress-Music & Lyrics By Sara Bareilles

Best Book of a Musical:
Hamilton-Lin-Manuel Miranda
School of Rock-Julian Fellowes
Shuffle Along...-George C. Wolfe
Waitress-Jessie Nelson

Best Choreography:
Andy Blankenbuehler-Hamilton
Warren Carlyle-She Loves Me
Savion Glover-Shuffle Along...
Hofesh Shechter-Fiddler on the Roof
Sergio Trujillo-On Your Feet!

Potential Spoiler(s): Spencer Liff-Spring Awakening; Randy Skinner-Dames at Sea

Best Orchestrations:
Joseph Joubert-The Color Purple
Alex Lacamoire-Hamilton
Ted Sperling-Fiddler on the Roof
Daryl Waters-Shuffle Along...

Potential Spoiler(s): Sara Bareilles & the Waitress Band-Waitress; August Eriksmoen-Bright Star; Larry Hochman-She Loves Me

[neonlightsxo]

School of Rock will not be nominated for book. Or at least it shouldn't be. It's almost word for word dialogue from the movie.

[Valentina3]

I honestly think Michael Arden has a good chance of being nominated for the SA Revival, and possibly win too.

[neonlightsxo]

"I honestly think Michael Arden has a good chance of being nominated for the SA Revival, and possibly win too."

 

On what planet will he beat Tommy Kail? Not this planet.

[backwoodsbarbie]

From what I'm hearing, Savion Glover deserves the TONY for choreography, but will the Hamilton momentum give it to Andy Blank?

[neonlightsxo]

It's between those two. Hard to say.

[TFMH18]

Any best actress list that does not include Carmen Cusack is a list I don't want to believe-- nor will I, for the time being. 

[JudyDenmark]

I'm not going to post a list of every category... but aside from the locks, here are my big hopes:

 
• Carmen Cusack in leading actress in a musical. I want this for her so badly. (I'd frankly be fine with her bumping Audra.)

• Spring Awakening for direction and choreography, and (fingers crossed for a 4-nominee tie!) Best Revival. 

• I'm sure it won't get all three, but Megan Hilty, Andrea Martin, and Rob McClure for Noises Off

• Danielle Brooks for featured actress... and, long shot (!), Joaquina Kalukango. Stranger things have happened. I'm fine with Hudson not being nominated, even though I thought she was great. 

• Relatedly, Isaiah Johnson for featured actor. I don't think Jonathan Groff should be nominated this year, which I say as a fan of his. There are just too many stronger choices.

• Jesse Tyler Ferguson for Best Actor in a Play. I saw it last night and to be honest thought he was a little bit miscast. But MAN is he giving it his all, and I'd love to see him recognized for that. It's such a competitive category this year... no guarantees.  

Mostly, I just want them to spread the love. Hamilton is revolutionary (heh) and wonderful, but to me its biggest strength is in its concept, writing, and out-of-the-box casting. I do think it should win Best Musical and Book/Score (at least), but I'm hoping the other categories are spread out a bit. It's a hell of a season, and there are so many other deserving shows and performances. 

[neonlightsxo]

My biggest hunch (that no one else is mentioning) is that Annaleigh will be nominated for Sylvia.

[Dave13]

Loved King Charles III. Does it have a chance of winning, since it closed earlier in the season? Seems people only remember the shows that are still playing at the time of the Tony Awards. 

[neonlightsxo]

Winning best play? No.

[MadonnaMusical]

Does anyone have a full list of everything that's eligible in every category? Someone posted one last year and it was very helpful. 

[BroadwayConcierge]

MadonnaMusical said: "Does anyone have a full list of everything that's eligible in every category? Someone posted one last year and it was very helpful."

If a list like this comes to fruition, it won't be valid until after tomorrow, when the nominating committee is expected to have its final rulings meeting (to decide on most recently opened productions—importantly, Shuffle Along). 

[PianoMann]

MadonnaMusical said: "Does anyone have a full list of everything that's eligible in every category? Someone posted one last year and it was very helpful."

I believe the final Committee meeting to determine eligibility occurs tomorrow so we will have the final list of category placements and eligibility then.

Edit: BroadwayConcierge beat me to it!

[BroadwayConcierge]

PianoMann said: "Edit: BroadwayConcierge beat me to it!"

Sorry, Mann!

[ChiTheaterFan]

The only two listed as TBD on the Tony site are Fully Committed and Shuffle Along.  So that gives us:
 
Best Play:
Act of God
China Doll
Eclipsed
The Father
The Humans
King Charles III
Misery
Our Mother's Brief Affair
Therese Raquin
 
Best Musical:
Allegiance
Amazing Grace
American Psycho
Bright Star
Disaster!
Hamilton
On Your Feet!
School of Rock
Tuck Everlasting
Waitress

Best Revival of a Play:
The Crucible
A View from the Bridge
Blackbird
Fool for Love
The Gin Game
Hughie
Long Day's Journey Into Night
Noises Off
Old Times
Sylvia
 
Best Revival of a Musical:
The Color Purple
Dames at Sea
Fiddler on the Roof
She Loves Me
Spring Awakening


Plus the two TBD shows in whatever category they fall. 

http://www.tonyawards.com/en_US/broadway/spotlight/index.html

[Laurapattifan]

neonlightsxo said: "My biggest hunch (that no one else is mentioning) is that Annaleigh will nominated for Sylvia.

 

"

I was very surprised not to hear her name 

[MadonnaMusical]

for the most part I completely agree with Jeffrey save for one or two spots here or there... the only thing that could throw it completely off is SHUFFLE being deemed a revival... either way I doubt it would be nominated for best book considering that is the main obstacle the show has been trying to overcome. 

[ChiTheaterFan]

Here are my guesses/wish lists.  (I have not seen China Doll, Our Mother's Brief Affair, Allegiance, Amazing Grace, Disaster!, Tuck Everlasting, Fool for Love, Gin Game, Hughie, Old Times, Fully Committed, or Shuffle Along, so I'm just basing anything from those shows on what I've heard/read.  The only one of those I may see before nominations come out is Tuck Everlasting.)  These could be totally inaccurate but I might as well join in the predicting fun.  :)
 

Best New Musical (I'm predicting a tie gets us 5 nominees, but if not I think American Psycho might be out, although I'd like to see it get a nomination since it was my second-favorite new musical this season)
American Psycho
Hamilton
School of Rock
Waitress
Shuffle Along
Would like to see: Bright Star
 
Best Revival of a Musical
The Color Purple
Fiddler on the Roof
She Loves Me
Would Like to See: Spring Awakening
 
Best Play (doesn't seem to be a lot of disagreement for this category)
Eclipsed
The Father
The Humans
King Charles III
 
Best Revival of a Play
Blackbird
The Crucible
Noises Off
A View from the Bridge  (Definitely not on my wish list for a nomination, but I know it will end up getting one)
Could possibly see: Long Day's Journey Into Night, but I think it's more likely to be rewarded in the acting categories given the reviews

Best Score:
Bright Star
Hamilton
School of Rock
Waitress
Would like to see: American Psycho
 
Best Book (honestly seems to me to be a pretty weak category so I wouldn't be surprised at whatever is nominated)
American Psycho
Hamilton
Shuffle Along
Waitress

Best Choreography (I don't know all the names for choreographers/directors, so I'm just using show names)
American Psycho
Hamilton
On Your Feet
Shuffle Along
Spring Awakening
 
Best Direction of a Musical
The Color Purple
Fiddler on the Roof
Hamilton
Shuffle Along
Spring Awakening
Would like to see:  American Psycho, She Loves Me

Best Direction of a Play:
Eclipsed
The Humans
King Charles III
Noises Off
A View from the Bridge
Would Like to See: Ivan Van Hove for the Crucible rather than a View from the Bridge, which I didn't particularly like, but I know that's not the common view.  I could also see him getting nominated twice, and Noises Off being left off.
 
Best Leading Actress in a Musical (Really hoping for a tie--if not, I predict Cusack gets in and upsets either Soo or McDonald for a nomination.)
Laura Benenti (She Loves Me)
Carmen Cusack (Bright Star)
Cynthia Erivo (the Color Purple)
Audra McDonald (Shuffle Along)
Jessie Mueller (Waitress)
Philippa Soo (Hamilton)
 
Best Leading Actor in a Musical:
Alex Brightman (School of Rock)
Danny Burstein (Fiddler)
Lin-Manuel Miranda (Hamilton)
Leslie Odom Jr. (Hamilton)
Benjamin Walker (American Psycho)
Would like to see: Zachary Levi (She Loves Me)
 
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
Renee Elise Goldsberry (Hamilton)
Jennifer Hudson (The Color Purple)
Jane Krakowski (She Loves Me)
Lesli Margherita (Dames at Sea)
Would like to see:  Jasmine Cephas Jones (Hamilton--that will never happen but I think she's a future star), Helene York (American Psycho), Keala Settle or Kimiko Glenn (Waitress)
 
Featured Actor in a Musical:
Daveed Diggs (Hamilton)
Christopher Fitzgerald (Waitress)
Christopher Jackson (Hamilton)
Terrance Mann (Tuck Everlasting)
Paul Alexander Nolan (Bright Star--assuming he's in featured; if he's lead I'd love to see him recognized, but I have no idea who else I could imagine getting bumped from that list)
Would like to see: Jonathan Groff (Hamilton)--I actually think Jackson has a better chance, Oak (Hamilton), Kyle Scatliffe (The Color Purple), Adam Kantor (Fiddler)
 
Best Leading Actress in a Play:
Annaleigh Ashford (Sylvia)
Jessica Lange (Long Day's Journey Into Night)
Lupita Nyong'o (Eclipsed)
Sophie Okonedo (The Crucible)
Michelle Williams (Blackbird)
 
Best Leading Actor in a Play:
Gabriel Byrne (Long Day's Journey Into Night)
Jeff Daniels (Blackbird)
Frank Langella (the Father)
Tim Pigott-Smith (King Charles III)
Mark Strong (View from the Bridge)
Would like to see: Ben Winshaw (the Crucible)
 
Best Featured Actress in a Play
Pascale Armand (Eclipsed)
Megan Hilty (Noises Off)
Jane Houdyshell (the Human)
Saycon Sengbloh (Eclipsed)
Saoirse Ronan (the Crucible)
Would like to see:  Zainab Jah (Eclipsed--she was actually my favorite in the play)

Best Featured Actor in a Play
Reed Birney (the Humans)
Richard Goulding (King Charles III)
Michael Shannon (Long Day's Journey)
David Furr (Noises Off)
Bill Camp (the Crucible)
Would like to see: Rob McClure (Noises Off)

[VotePeron]

I think y'all are giving a little too much love to Shuffle Along. I expect it to be left of Best Musical, hopefully Bright Star or American Psycho will take its place.

[Alex M]

I think that Jesse Tyler Ferguson could get a nomination for best actor....Its crazy what he does up on that stage.

[Freeman5]

Best Play

Eclipsed, The Father, the Humans and King Charles III

Best Musical

Hamilton, School of Rock, Shuffle Along... and Waitress

Best Revival - Play

The Crucible, Long Day's Journey Into Night, Noises Off and A View From the Bridge

Best Revival - Musical

The Color Purple, Fiddler On The Roof, She Loves Me and Spring Awakening

Best Score

Bright Star, Hamilton, School of Rock and Waitress

Best Book

Bright Star, Hamilton, School of Rock and Waitress

Director - Play

Jonathan Kent, Long Day's Journey Into Night; Joe Mantello, The Humans; Liesl Tommy, Eclipsed; Ivo van Hove, The Crucible; and Ivo van Hove, A View From the Bridge

Director - Musical

Michael Arden, Spring Awakening; John Doyle, The Color Purple; Scott Ellis, She Loves Me; Thomas Kail, Hamilton; and Diane Paulus, Waitress

Choreography

Hamilton; On Your Feet!; She Loves Me; Shuffle Along...; and Spring Awakening

Orchestrations

The Color Purple; Hamilton; School of Rock; Shuffle Along... and Waitress

Actor - Play

Gabriel Byrne, Long Day's Journey Into Night; Frank Langella, The Father; Tim Pigott-Smith, King Charles III; Mark Strong, A View From the Bridge; and Ben Whishaw, The Crucible

Actress - Play

Jessica Lange, Long Day's Journey Into Night; Lupita Nyong'o, Eclipsed; Sophie Okonedo, The Crucible; Nicola Walker, A View From the Bridge; and Michelle Williams, Blackbird

Actor - Musical

Alex Brightman, School of Rock; Danny Burstein, Fiddler On The Roof; Zachary Levi, She Loves Me; Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton; and Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton

Featured Actor - Play

Reed Birney, The Humans; Bill Camp, The Crucible; David Furr, Noises Off; Michael Shannon, Long Day's Journey Into Night; and Russell Tovey, A View From the Bridge

Featured Actress - Play

Megan Hilty, Noises Off; Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans; Zainab Jah, Eclipsed; Saoirse Ronan, The Crucible; and Saycon Sengbloh, Eclipsed

Featured Actor - Musical

Nicholas Barasch, She Loves Me; Daveed Diggs, Hamilton; Christopher Fitzgerald, Waitress; Jonathon Groff, Hamilton; and Christopher Jackson, Hamilton

Featured Actress - Musical

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple; Renee Elise Goldsberry, Hamilton; Jennifer Hudson, The Color Purple; Jane Krakowski, She Loves Me; and Keala Settle, Waitress

Scenic Design - Play

Fully Committed; The Humans; Noises Off; and Therese Raquin

Scenic Design - Musical

Hamilton; She Loves Me; Tuck Everlasting; and Waitress

Costume Design - Play

Eclipsed; King Charles III; Long Day's Journey Into Night; and Therese Raquin

Costume Design - Musical

Hamilton; On Your Feet!; She Loves Me and Shuffle Along...

Lighting Design - Play

Eclipsed; The Humans; Noises Off; and Therese Raquin

Lighting Design - Musical

American Psycho; Hamilton; She Loves Me; and Shuffle Along...

 

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Orchestrations

The Color Purple; Hamilton; School of Rock; Shuffle Along... and Waitress

There's only four slots for Best Orchestrations.

[CindersGolightly]

Should I throw out hope for a nomination for Miss Ashford in "Sylvia"?