Can Bountiful Pull Off A Porgy and Bess?

[PianoMann]

I know most of us are predicting Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf to win Best Revival on Sunday, which it absolutely should, but after seeing Trip to Bountiful last night, I started seeing some parallels between this category and Best Musical Revival last year, which pitted Follies against Porgy and Bess:

Follies, which I believe was the narrow frontrunner, had been closed since January, and although it reaped many Tony nominations, it only won one. Porgy and Bess, on the other hand, was still open and gaining momentum heading into the Tony Awards.

This year, we have Woolf, which is the frontrunner, but which has also been closed since early in the year, plus it had that pseudo-controversy regarding the unapproved material it sent. Bountiful seems similar to Porgy and Bess, as it is still open and is gaining traction heading into the awards.

Are we overestimating Woolf's likelihood of winning the Best Revival category, or are these two situations really not too similar? Personally, I believe Woolf and Letts deserve to win in their respective categories, as I found the show and particularly his performance to be some of the most memorable I've ever seen on stage. Having seen Bountiful yesterday, however, I believe it would make for a great winner as well, certainly worthy on its own merits. Thoughts?

(Also, I apologize in advance if this should have been posted in an already existing thread, and not in a new thread of its own, but I did not want to place it in the Predictions thread, as that seems to be more of a place to post lists, not foster conversation).

[Ed_Mottershead]

I would think there might be some sort of trade-off. Woolf for Best Revival, with (possibly) Letts for Best Actor (my choice, but feel pretty sure that either Hanks or Lane will take the prize) and Tyson for Best Actress.

Best Direction is a tough one to call, although I think MacKinnon (sp?) has the edge, assuming they'll go for a show that's already closed. Bountiful already has a scheduled closing date and I doubt that its winning Best Revival of a Play will factor into increased box office sales, which haven't been overly spectacular. I do think that Tyson will be the winner, however, both because of her performance and her durability.

[bjh2114]

Nicky Martin has Best Director locked up for Vanya...Spike.

[givesmevoice]

^ I don't know, I think MacKinnon stands a good chance at winning.

[jv92]

To answer the question: I sure hope not.

[Dusoleilcanwhistle]

I sincerely doubt it. For the most part Bountiful's reviews weren't nearly as good as Porgy's. And the Bountiful's lead producer going after Jeff Richards for sending out a flier and then getting zero support from the Tony's shows the real sense of the theater world about this award.

[PianoMann]

An additional interesting piece of this puzzle: this years New York Times article and predictions, based on interviewing 35 Tony voters, says that Woolf is only "narrowly favored" to Bountiful. I'll post the link to their full article (a great and always-informative read) below.

http://theater.nytimes.com/2013/06/07/theater/theaterspecial/predictions-from-tony-award-voters.html?hpw&_r=0

This really reminds me of last year, when Follies, too, was favored by a small margin to Porgy and Bess and ultimately ended up losing.

You make good points about the overall reviews for Bountiful, Dusoleil, but I think it has gained momentum these past few weeks. I also agree that MacKinnon has a very good chance at winning, also Nicky Martin could easily win too.

[goldenboy]

No it wasn't that good. If Woolf doesn't win, Golden Boy will.

[jv92]

And if we're talking about producers, Richards and LCT have more support from the community than Nelle Nugent, who came off as a big tattle-tale/mountain out of a molehill-builder this season. I must agree with goldenboy, if WOOLF loses, GOLDEN BOY (the play) will win. Both got the best reviews of the season on the non-musical front.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

I do think that if WOOLF loses, BOUNTIFUL will win. It's a lovely production with a great lead performance. And it's the only nominee still running. And I believe the producers capitalized on that while making the rounds of shaking the Tony Voters' hands. I could see an upset happening (its certainly not out of the question, like ORPHANS winning) but since upsets aren't too terribly common at the Tonys, I'd bet on WOOLF.