B'way closed thru (at earliest) 1/3 now- Page 3

[JSquared2]

Posted: 6/30/20 at 12:18pm

Jordan Levinson said: "2021 may be out of the cards already. A new strain of swine flu has just been discovered in Chinese pigs- which can easily spread to humans- and could eventually become our second global pandemic at the same time.

I am now optimistic about a 2022-23 return at the earliest.
 

You're being quite ridiculous.  No one knows what next week will be like let alone 2 years from now -- so maybe tone down the hysterics?

 

[sabrelady]

Posted: 6/30/20 at 12:33pm

There was never a vaccine for SARS

Wasn't required as it proved to be a hospital borne not community borne disease

SARS-COVID-19 is the exact opposite a virulent community based virus .

I have Pulled the following info from The Jenner Institute

A chimpanzee adenovirus vaccine vector (ChAdOx1), developed at Oxford’s Jenner Institute, was chosen as the most suitable vaccine technology for a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine as it can generate a strong immune response from one dose and it is not a replicating virus, so it cannot cause an ongoing infection in the vaccinated individual. This also makes it safer to give to children, the elderly and anyone with a pre-existing condition such as diabetes. Chimpanzee adenoviral vectors are a very well-studied vaccine type, having been used safely in thousands of subjects, from 1 week to 90 years of age, in vaccines targeting over 10 different diseases.

Coronaviruses have club-shaped spikes on their outer coats. Immune responses from other coronavirus studies suggest that these are a good target for a vaccine. The Oxford vaccine contains the genetic sequence of this surface spike protein inside the ChAdOx1 construct. After vaccination, the surface spike protein of the coronavirus is produced, which primes the immune system to attack the coronavirus if it later infects the body. Prof. Gilbert and team have previously developed a vaccine for another human coronavirus disease, which is Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), and this has shown promise in early clinical trials.

At the same time as preparing for and conducting the first clinical trial( this means phase 3), production of the vaccine is being scaled up ready for larger trials, and potentially, future deployment.

 

There is a lot of promise that this should be ready  hopefully by late Feb ( Data analysis is VERY important given the speed this is moving at) IMHO a vaccine could be ready for distribution ( if everything goes well) by April-May 2021.

I know it's frustrating , SAFE science taking so long but I have to say  I have never seen anything move this fast- most vaccines and treatments take YEARS.

Keep the faith!

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 6/30/20 at 1:01pm

HogansHero said: "@Broadway61004 where are these "low-risk areas" of which you speak? Broadway is in the lowest risk area(that has theatres of any relevance to this discussion) and the reason you will not see shows here before Spring (at the earliest and most likely later) is why it has that distinction. Many of these states are not even where the Northeast was in March yet. As the govt experts are saying, we are only just getting started with this virus. Sad and unnecessarybut true."

I'm talking about states that currently have much lower case counts (example: Wyoming, Montana, the Dakotas, even Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine with under 300 new cases in the past week).  Now, will those areas spike?  And will it be financially feasible for tours to open if they could only go to those areas?  Those are all questions to be determined, which is why I said it's probably unlikely we'll see any tours go out before 2021, but it's still far from a sure thing.  There's a reason Broadway has cancelled everything through January but a lot of the tours still haven't said a word.  So answering the original question, no, this does not mean for absolute certain that tours are also closed through the end of the year.  Probably, but not for certain.

Updated On: 6/30/20 at 01:01 PM

[HogansHero]

Posted: 6/30/20 at 1:51pm

Broadway61004 said: "I'm talking about states that currently have much lower case counts (example: Wyoming, Montana, the Dakotas, even Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine with under 300 new cases in the past week). Now, will those areas spike? And will it be financially feasible for tours to open if they could only go to those areas? "

I have no idea if those areas will spike (some appear to already have started) but the answer to your last question is no. Even combined, there would be no financial viability.

[BroadwayGuy12]

Posted: 6/30/20 at 4:18pm

Artsylady10 said: "LOL, you’re predicting a second global pandemic and pushing back Broadway reopening by a few years now because of a newly reported swine flu that even Chinese scientists explicitly say isn’t of immediate concern in this moment? As so many have said, we literally know nothing of the future, let alone the long term effects of something that “could” happen, so let’s relax a bit with the speculation and fear mongering."

Jordan Levinson is the same poster who started a thread a few months ago stating that he didn't see "sports, heavily attended parties, religious services, weddings, funerals, hugging/kissing/sex/high-fiving/fist-bumping, and humans touching other humans ever returning to world culture." Fear mongering is his specialty.

[Sutton Ross]

Posted: 6/30/20 at 4:21pm

Still my fav thread over these last three months. I do hope he is enjoying his summer studies at Peppa Pig State! 

[fosterfan2]

Posted: 6/30/20 at 5:40pm

sabrelady said: "There was never a vaccine for SARS

Wasn't required as it proved to be a hospital borne not community borne disease

SARS-COVID-19 is the exact opposite a virulent community based virus .

I have Pulled the following info from The Jenner Institute

A chimpanzee adenovirus vaccine vector (ChAdOx1), developed at Oxford’s Jenner Institute, was chosen as the most suitable vaccine technology for a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine as it can generate a strong immune response from one dose and it is not a replicating virus, so it cannot cause an ongoing infection in the vaccinated individual. This also makes it safer to give to children, the elderly and anyone with a pre-existing condition such as diabetes. Chimpanzee adenoviral vectors are a very well-studied vaccine type, having been used safely in thousands of subjects, from 1 week to 90 years of age, in vaccines targeting over 10 different diseases.

Coronaviruses have club-shaped spikes on their outer coats. Immune responses from other coronavirus studies suggest that these are a good target for a vaccine. The Oxford vaccine contains the genetic sequence of this surface spike protein inside the ChAdOx1 construct. After vaccination, the surface spike protein of the coronavirus is produced, which primes the immune system to attack the coronavirus if it later infects the body. Prof. Gilbert and team have previously developed a vaccine for another human coronavirus disease, which is Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), and this has shown promise in early clinical trials.

At the same time as preparing for and conducting the first clinical trial( this means phase 3), production of the vaccine is being scaled up ready for larger trials, and potentially, future deployment.



There is a lot of promise that this should be ready hopefully by late Feb ( Data analysis is VERY important given the speed this is moving at) IMHO a vaccine could be ready for distribution ( if everything goes well) by April-May 2021.

I know it's frustrating , SAFE science taking so long but I have to say I have never seen anything move this fast- most vaccines and treatments take YEARS.

Keep the faith!"

Thank you so much for sharing this. Let's all hope this works out. Do you have a link,or should I just Google the Jenner Institute?

[IAMREADING]

Posted: 6/30/20 at 7:47pm

Is it weird Equity didn’t tell actors? Did their shows tell them?

I assumed part of the delay of the announcement was making sure everyone behind the scenes knew.

Eva Noblezada and Jessica Vosk tweeted about this.

 From Eva: https://twitter.com/EvaNoblezada/status/1277702006417825792?s=20“How hard is it to send an email...Equity?

 

“For those who like to mince words; no one is saying it’s Equity’s fault HAHA. I just would’ve felt a little more supported had we received an email. We’re all attempting to do our best. I’m attempting to not lose my mind. But everyone has EVERY right to feel some type of way”

Updated On: 6/30/20 at 07:47 PM

[HogansHero]

Posted: 6/30/20 at 8:30pm

IAMREADING said: "Is it weird Equity didn’t tell actors? Did their shows tell them?

I assumed part of the delay of the announcement was making sure everyone behind the scenes knew.

Eva Noblezada and Jessica Vosk tweeted about this.

From Eva:https://twitter.com/EvaNoblezada/status/1277702006417825792?s=20“Howhard is it to send an email...Equity?

“For those who like to mince words; no one is saying it’s Equity’s fault HAHA. I just would’ve felt a little more supported had we received an email. We’re all attempting to do our best. I’m attempting to not lose my mind. But everyone has EVERY right to feel some type of way”"

No, it is not weird. As I have posted, this announcement is about accounting and nothing more. No show was ever going to restart before then, or even then. 

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 7/2/20 at 1:12am

In their report earlier this week, The New York Times said that the League is considering a 2021 reopening  consisting of "a series of rolling dates," much like the rest of the state has been doing this past month and a half or so. 

If we do get an effective vaccine by next spring and life starts to return to "normal," I'm all for the idea of not overcrowding the Great BRIGHT Way with shows immediately. I'm sure in the months to come, we will know about more eventual survivors/victims, and we can start making "batch" predictions: groups of shows that will probably share the same return date.

And even if B'way does not end up reopening in the spring, the League's idea seems to work for most any time of year. Ease back into it, whenever it's safe enough to do so.

 

Updated On: 7/2/20 at 01:12 AM

[Fosse76]

Posted: 7/2/20 at 2:51am

HogansHero said: "IAMREADING said: "Is it weird Equity didn’t tell actors? Did their shows tell them?

I assumed part of the delay of the announcement was making sure everyone behind the scenes knew.

Eva Noblezada and Jessica Vosk tweeted about this.

From Eva:https://twitter.com/EvaNoblezada/status/1277702006417825792?s=20“Howhard is it to send an email...Equity?

“For those who like to mince words; no one is saying it’s Equity’s fault HAHA. I just would’ve felt a little more supported had we received an email. We’re all attempting to do our best. I’m attempting to not lose my mind. But everyone has EVERY right to feel some type of way”"

No, it is not weird. As I have posted, this announcement is about accounting and nothing more. No show was ever going to restart before then, or even then."

No theater employees were notified. That includes house staff, actors, crew, etc. 

[SFFrontRow]

Posted: 7/2/20 at 3:08am

Trying to get a feel for the possibilities here... I make my trips from SF to NYC for theater every February, May/June (from Memorial Day to the Friday before Tonys weekend) and then a possible third trip in November. I was lucky, I made it to NYC in Feb for 15 days, saw 10 shows and got all but Virginia Woolf (I had already seen Hangman at the Atlantic). The big miss for me was Company.

This year was only my second missed May/June trip since 1986 (1991 was the other), so I guess I am pretty lucky.

I was ruling out Nov 2020 but was hoping against hope for February 2021. Since I live in SF CA, and our state is spiking my outlook is kind of pessimistic. I know is a crap shoot and no one has any idea but do people think Jan 2021 is really possible?

[blaxx]

Posted: 7/2/20 at 4:07am

SFFrontRow said: "Trying to get a feel for the possibilities here... I make my trips from SF to NYC for theater every February, May/June (from Memorial Day to the Friday before Tonys weekend) and then a possible third trip in November. I was lucky, I made it to NYC in Feb for 15 days, saw 10 shows and got all but Virginia Woolf (I had already seen Hangman at the Atlantic). The big miss for me was Company.

This year was only my second missed May/June trip since 1986 (1991 was the other), so I guess I am pretty lucky.

I was ruling out Nov 2020 but was hoping against hope for February 2021. Since I live in SF CA, and our state is spiking my outlook is kind of pessimistic. I know is a crap shoot and no one has any idea but do people think Jan 2021 is really possible?"

 No, Jan 2021 is NOT possible. Call me anything you want, it isn't happening then.

[stoptheworld38]

Posted: 7/4/20 at 9:43am

Yes, January IS possible. There is ZERO point in stating that something 6 months away is completely out of the question. (And to be honest, I think that they should’ve even waited til later this summer or early-mid fall to make a final decision about extending that far when so much could change, but I will spare that rant). People can say that January is unlikely all they want, but until we get closer to the time, don’t say it’s not happening like that’s carved in stone. As far as going in February, I’d say there’s no harm in purchasing tickets, as shows are allowing that after 1/3. If (yes IF, DO NOT SAY DEFINITE) the shutdown gets extended yet again, you should be able to get an exchange/refund. There’s no harm in being optimistic.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 7/4/20 at 11:29am

stoptheworld38 said: "Yes, January IS possible. There is ZERO point in stating that something 6 months away is completely out of the question. (And to be honest, I think that they should’ve even waited til later this summer or early-mid fall to make a final decision about extending that far when so much could change, but I will spare that rant). People can say that January is unlikely all they want, but until we get closer to the time, don’t say it’s not happening like that’s carved in stone. As far as going in February, I’d say there’s no harm in purchasing tickets, as shows are allowing that after 1/3. If (yes IF, DO NOT SAY DEFINITE) the shutdown gets extended yet again, you should be able to get an exchange/refund. There’s no harm in being optimistic."

I am very optimistic about the future, but (as has been rehearsed in this and other threads) January is not going to happen because it is ONLY six months away. Broadway shows do not happen by snapping one's fingers. It is a fact that no one is working on a show for January or February. Some people are working on March but those dates are, to use your words, not carved in stone. Beyond that, for half the country, July 1 is what was March 1 in NY. Four months from now is (roughly) November 1. 

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 7/4/20 at 11:50am

I’m very optimistic that by January 1st, we’ll know a pretty definite date as to when shows will actually be able to start and casting/rehearsals/tech/etc will all hopefully be starting to get underway.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 7/4/20 at 1:38pm

Jordan Catalano said: "I’m very optimistic that by January 1st, we’ll know a pretty definite date as to when shows will actually be able to start and casting/rehearsals/tech/etc will all hopefully be starting to get underway."

I agree. By the new year the country will have been pulled kicking and screaming into reality (there really is no choice), and New York hopefully will have restored a new sense of normalcy such that we know when we will be ready to move forward. You may be more optimistic about the Spring than I am but we certainly will know much more than we do now. When you think back on how ignorant (not in the pejorative sense) we were 6 months ago, I don't know how you cannot be optimistic now about what we will know in 6 months. The Times weekend update piece today had a great section reviewing the first 6 months of the year and in particular the first 3. On January 6 the Times first reported a “mysterious, pneumonialike illness.” 

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 7/4/20 at 3:00pm

Every surviving/upcoming show will not reopen on the same day, either. The League does not want to jump the gun immediately, even if we have a vaccine. According to The New York Times, B'way's reopening will probably be gradual, with smaller batches of shows restarting on provided dates (we should have a clearer picture of this early 2021). 

 

[ACL2006]

Posted: 7/4/20 at 3:30pm

I do feel like the 6 month extension gives Broadway time to put a plan together to reopen. Probably won't be the week of January 4, but possibly mid-February. Let AEA, the Broadway League, all other unions and the CDC work out the necessary details to put together a strategy to reopen. I agree about letting shows reopen at a staggered pace. Maybe 5-6 shows reopen at each week until we hit mid-April.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 7/4/20 at 4:46pm

ACL2006 said: "I do feel like the 6 month extension gives Broadway time to put a plan together to reopen. Probably won't be the week of January 4, but possibly mid-February. Let AEA, the Broadway League, all other unions and the CDC work out the necessary details to put together a strategy to reopen. I agree about letting shows reopen at a staggered pace. Maybe 5-6 shows reopen at each week until we hit mid-April."

Plans and strategies are great but unless you can get the virus to sit down at the table and tell you its plans, the rest is no more than tentative. And FWIW the League barely has a seat at this table nor does the CDC. The big player you don't mention is New York State. Moreover, I think what we are looking at under the best case scenario is that 5-6 shows a MONTH may open. And that starts in March not February.

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 7/4/20 at 4:53pm

Well there’s already 4-6 shows that have announced beginning in March, none of them the long running “tourist” shows, which I’d expect to want to get back to business ASAP. So I’d imagine at least 10-12 shows trying to reopen on whatever the actual start date will be. After that, it will absolutely be staggered.

[Sunny11]

Posted: 7/4/20 at 4:56pm

A big unknown at the moment is If a second wave will hit New York City by November/December. If there is and March’s figures combine with the seasonal flu then the conversation is mute.

[SweetLips22]

Posted: 7/4/20 at 5:38pm

The whole world is in a state of flux that flows and ebbs which ever way the population allows.

We have absolute stupidity here in Victoria Australia where quarantine 'guests' in hotels went out shopping, had sex with security guards, visited others within the hotel and guards without any substantial specific training.

No matter what rules by well meaning officials are put in place it is the duty of the individual to protect each other.

This is a theatre board about a business, not any more special than other struggling businesses but they all interlock at some point to work as a whole.

One without the other is useless so once the little corner store, the coffee shop, drycleaner etc etc open their doors then gradual confidence builds until we start to hear live music flow down Broadway or out from any theatre world wide.

Don't predict, be patient and it WILL happen when it is MEANT to happen.

Support your charities to show you care for what you are missing.

'Love Peace and Brown Rice' as a very dear but very cynical friend often quoted.

[Jarethan]

Posted: 7/4/20 at 5:57pm

Jordan Catalano said: "I’m very optimistic that by January 1st, we’ll know a pretty definite date as to when shows will actually be able to start and casting/rehearsals/tech/etc will all hopefully be starting to get underway."

I hope you are right, but I don't think that we'll have a pretty definite date until there is a vaccine and a published schedule for distribution.  If Trump wins, forget it...they have never proven to date that they are capable of organizing or facilitating others in organizing.  If Trump loses (pray God, even if you don't believe in God), we still have to deal with a change of administration and the probability that the Trump administration will make as much of an effort as possible too get in the way right up to the inauguration,  since spite seems to be an essential part of their being.

Hope I am wrong.  As is everyone else, I am just so sick of the whole situation (being 70, living in Florida right now, and doing exactly the opposite of whatever the idiot in the WH says, we are quarantining other than much delayed Dr's visits and rare trips to the supermarket.  I have to admit that, while I really miss theatre, there are definitely things higher on my list of priorities (seeing my kids who are still in their 20s, seeing friends, getting back to a normal daily routine).  At 40+ times a year attending the theatre, that still only translates into once every 8 or so days, whereas getting back to a (new) normal routine is 7 days a week.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 7/4/20 at 6:08pm

Jordan Catalano said: "Well there’s already 4-6 shows that have announced beginning in March, none of them the long running “tourist” shows, which I’d expect to want to get back to business ASAP. So I’d imagine at least 10-12 shows trying to reopen on whatever the actual start date will be. After that, it will absolutely be staggered."

well, I remind you that (as you know) announcing and actually starting are not always the same thing. If an announced show looks at its advance on the day the big contracts have to be signed and a few big checks have to be written, and doesn't see a number with at least 7 figures, it can un-announce as quickly as it announced. I also think that the "tourist" shows are going to have the hardest time reopening. The idea that things are going to go back to before in short order is, in my view, a bad one.

I join SweetLips in counseling patience. I can't wait, however, to hear more about having sex with security guards.