President Trump: The Coming Impeachment

[Mildred Plotka]

Bump

[Mildred Plotka]

Bump

[sabrelady]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/04/15/trumps-approval-rating-is-back-near-first-100-day-levels/?utm_term=.db6f47150567

 

OK then the U.S.A.is completely off the rails if the approval rating, after everything that has gone down, still go up. 

[brdlwyr]

It is still a 16% margin! That is not good for him in any electoral sense.  However, who are the ridiculous 40%???????

[Mildred Plotka]

I think these polls, as the election ones proved, are wildly inaccurate.

[artscallion]

Yes, polls are meaningless after the 2016 election.

[ErikJ972]

artscallion said: "Yes, polls are meaningless after the 2016 election."

That's not really true at all. The 2016 polls were actually fairly accurate.

"

Presidential polls

Of the 13 final national polls conducted the week before the election that tested the four-way presidential contest, only one had Trump ahead and 12 put Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton on top.

That would seem to be a veritable disaster for the polling industry, right?

Not exactly.

National polls only measure the popular vote. Clinton did, in fact, win the national popular vote by 2.1 points. The average of the 13 final national polls had Clinton ahead by 3.1 points, which was only a point off the actual result.

Ironically, all 12 polls that had Clinton ahead turned out to be closer to the final outcome than the poll that had Trump ahead. While that may seem crazy — since Trump, not Clinton, is headed to the White House — it's true. The poll that put Trump ahead (by 2 points) was off by 4.1 points, while polls that gave Clinton the lead were off anywhere from only one-tenth of a point to less than 4 points.

National polling did much better in 2016 than in 2012, when the average of the final polls in the contest between President Obama and GOP nominee Mitt Romney was off by more than 3 points. Polls showed Obama winning the popular vote by only seven-tenths of a point, and on Election Day he captured a wider 3.9-point vote margin.

Of course, the national popular vote is irrelevant in terms of who wins presidential elections. Only the Electoral College matters. But when a candidate wins one and loses the other, as happened this time, it clouds perceptions of margin size and polling accuracy."

One last look: 2016 polls actually got a lot right

[ScottyDoesn'tKnow2]

I think when people talk about polls in context with the 2016 election, the more learned ones are talking about the ones projecting the Electoral College results like Five Thirty Eight. That said, all of those polls all list their margin of error and those states that were projected blue that turned out to be red were indeed within the margin of error if I remember correctly. It was that close in those states.

[ErikJ972]

ScottyDoesn'tKnow2 said: "I think when people talk about polls in context with the 2016 election, the more learned ones are talking about the ones projecting the Electoral College results like Five Thirty Eight. That said, all of those polls all list their margin of error and those states that were projected blue that turned out to be red were indeed within the margin of error if I remember correctly. It was that close in those states."

Yup. Which also goes against the "polls are meaningless now" narrative.