Printer Friendly - Lucky Guy Extends to June 16

Lucky Guy Extends to June 16
Posted by Cupid Boy2 2013-01-15 18:16:39

I just noticed on Telecharge that tickets are available through June 16, which is surprising in light of a report by Riedel claiming that tickets aren't selling as well as what had been anticipated. With that said, I assume the extension is for the purpose of becoming a more likely contender for award nominations.

Lucky Guy Extends to June 16
Posted by Smaxie 2013-01-15 21:12:11

Riedel's story was extremely ill-formed. It's inapt to compare Lucky Guy's advance, two months before first preview and three months before opening, with what Steady Rain or Three Days of Rain had amassed at the time they opened - or for a show with Hugh Jackman singing and dancing. At $4 million (and I've heard the figure is actually higher), Lucky Guy's advance is higher than for any other spring play - and for most of the spring musicals as well.

Lucky Guy Extends to June 16
Posted by Cupid Boy2 2013-01-15 21:42:53

Oh, thanks for clearing things up, Smaxie. I guess then that the extension could be explained by more than just a hope for Tony nominations. Nonetheless, it's still nice to see Hanks dedicating more time to the show.

Lucky Guy Extends to June 16
Posted by ACL2006 2013-01-15 22:24:24

does the Broadhurst have standing room?

Lucky Guy Extends to June 16
Posted by Cupid Boy2 2013-01-15 22:33:32

Yes, it does.

Lucky Guy Extends to June 16
Posted by CapnHook 2013-01-15 23:08:45

Wonder what the capitalization is. Could they recoup before they open?

Lucky Guy Extends to June 16
Posted by averagebwaynut 2013-01-16 00:18:09

I like these little math exercises so I gave it a shot.

By my estimations, I think they could get about halfway toward recoupment, but unlikely they would recoup entirely in advance. Here's how I figured it:

Mostly a guess -- but based on some knowledge of other show budgets this season and last -- I'm figuring a capitalization in the neighborhood of $3.5M (given that it's a quite large cast, an expensive creative team and a new play that doesn't have only a single set) and I'm figuring operating expenses of at least $400K/week before royalties (based on cast size, based on what people have been rumoring for Hanks's salary and based on other star salaries this season). (And ignoring the fact that it could be even higher in some weeks when they have very high grosses because no question he gets a base salary against a percentage).

So at a minimum 15 weeks x $400K just to pay the weekly bills. Then they have to have operating profits after royalties of around $235K per week to pay back the original $3.5M. Guesstimating royalties based on gross of somewhere around 15%, that means the show probably needs to do somewhere in the vicinity of $750-$800K net per week to recoup in 15 weeks. $750-$800K net is more like $825-$875K gross -- certainly more than achievable in a theatre like the Broadhurst (that has seen weeks well over $1M in the past). 15 weeks x $825-$875K works out to around $12.75M in gross advance needed in the bank in order to be "recouped" in advance.

So if their gross advance is around $4M now as reported, it's not unlikely they could have an advance of at least $6-$6.5M by first preview in a little less than two months, which I'm guessing, in very rough, round numbers, would put them in the 50% recouped range before they ever play a performance*.

Still not too shabby, I would say. If they had asked (and if I had the money!!), I would have invested!!

*NOTE: before the sticklers comment: no, it's not an exact science when you're working with estimates. And yes of course, this assumes the money is distributed evenly over the run and there isn't a random week where the show loses a bunch of money. To do projections, you have to make certain reasonable assumptions and that's what I've tried to do. If anyone has more exact information, I'd love to hear/see/read it! :)