What shows will benefit if Comet closes?

[JustAnotherNewYorker]

So, since we're all running around in circles in the Comet threads, not knowing if it will close, I though it would be interesting to speculate on where the $900k+ in ticket sales will move to if Comet closes. This wasn't "In Transit" which had only a blip of attendance--this closing (if it happens) will put up to 1,200 butts in play every show.

It wont be DEH (in the near term, at least) as that's sold out until January. It probably wont be Come From Away to a large extent, as that seems also to be doing well. Some of it will clearly drop away (the Comet lovers, those in NYC who see everything once), but it seems to me that some of the tourist trade (especially) will still need a show to see. Also, any thoughts on whether any of it move at full price, or will this just mean more TKTS sales?

Kinky (it will be post Urie)? Waitress? GHD? Bandstand?

I'd also be interested if anyone has any historical precedence for this.

[Messytheatregirl]

I would imagine Miss Saigon benefiting if The Great Comet closes in the upcoming weeks. 

[Huss417]

You realize if they were continuing with 900k plus in ticket sales they wouldn't be having this conversation. The producers were talking having no sales after August.

Just a very odd thread.

[haterobics]

JustAnotherNewYorker said: "I though it would be interesting to speculate on where the $900k+ in ticket sales will move to if Comet closes."

Not sure you can divvy up the amount of money they are making when they are not closing since Ingrid is bringing people in, since if they were going to make that number weekly after 8/13, they would stay open. So, it is a much smaller number after that time. Malloy described them as "catastrophically low" after Ingrid leaves.

[10086Sundays]

Sadly, I don't think any of the troubled shows will benefit. At least not enough to save them.

It'll just mean one less option for people at the TKTS booth and on discount sites/apps. So there might be a very slight bump in sales, but nothing more.

[dramamama611]

Honestly? No one show will reap the benefit to any real noticeable degree.  Some people will go to any show they can still get tickets too, some won't rebook a different show.   

[JustAnotherNewYorker]

haterobics said: "JustAnotherNewYorker said: "I though it would be interesting to speculate on where the $900k+ in ticket sales will move to if Comet closes."

Not sure you can divvy up the amount of money they are making when they are not closing since Ingrid is bringing people in, since if they were going to make that number weekly after 8/13, they would stay open. So, it is a much smaller number after that time. Malloy described them as "catastrophically low" after Ingrid leaves."

OK, so maybe it's half that. The "catastrophically low" that Dave spoke of relates to the advance, perhaps with the expectation that much of the non-advance seats would end up in TKTS (or TDF) inventory. There's still a significant number of seats at play (even non-advance) which may make the difference to a struggling show, but probably only if there are one or two shows likely to get the people who would have attended Comet

 

Of course, it's also possible that Comet pulls an Avenue Q, and scales back down to an Off-Broadway venue

[bear88]

I don't think any of the shows you mentioned will benefit much. Had Great Comet not existed when I went with my family in April, I probably would have seen Waitress (although it was pricey then, with Bareilles). But I'm not sure. Comet has its own audience. In my case, I didn't know Groban but I always am drawn to original, well-reviewed works that I can't see on tour. In the fall, one beneficiary might be The Band's Visit, but I don't think Comet's absence will help or hurt that show much. 

I just can't figure out what shows would benefit appreciably from Comet's demise.

[dramamama611]

It sounds like they don't have the money to do this.  

[BroadwayConcierge]

OMG how many threads are we going to have about speculation based off of speculation???

[Jarethan]

I think the surviving, non-sellout shows will benefit if there really are a glut of Labor Day closings, not if one or two shows close.  Right now, people speculate re War Paint, GHD, TGC, Miss Saigon, and Bandstand.  If that is the case, I have to believe there will be some positive fall-off to Kinky Boots and Beautiful in particular...just like last year.  

Part of this also stems from the fact that there are no interesting musicals opening anytime soon, at least that I can recall off the top of my head. Wait, there is The Band's Visit.  (Of course, I have to admit that I am projecting my complete disinterest in Spongebob and Once on this Island and February start of previews for Margarittaville onto a broader ticket-buying audience).