Tony Prediction Close Calls
Tony Prediction Close Calls
SweetyTodd
Swing Joined: 10/6/14
#1Tony Prediction Close Calls
Posted: 6/9/17 at 3:34pm
What are your opinions about these likely close calls?
COSTUME DESIGN (MUSICAL)
It seems to be between Santo Loquasto of HELLO DOLLY! and Catherine Zuber of WAR PAINT? With Paloma Young of NATASHA PIERRE as a dark horse.
SCENIC DESIGN (PLAY)
I just have no idea about this one, but I think the safest bet is JITNEY with Nigel Hook of THE PLAY THAT GOES WRONG as a nice surprise.
SCENIC DESIGN (MUSICAL)
So many people talk like Mimi Lien of NATASHA PIERRE is a lock. I think it's closer than that, with HELLO DOLLY! as a contender. But this category might actually offer the biggest surprise of the night with Rob Howell of GROUNDHOG DAY pulling in from out of nowhere but proving that Tony voters have eyes.
ORCHESTRATIONS
Larry Hochman of HELLO DOLLY! is the safest bet. But I think Dave Malloy of NATASHA PIERRE is going to get a lot of votes and may surprise.
MUSICAL
This has already been discussed a lot on this board. It's betwen DEH and CFA. I think most viewers expect DEH to win. But personally I think CFA is going to pull an upset. DEH is the LA LA LAND of 2017 Tony's and CFA is the MOONLIGHT.
Thoughts?
BroadwayRox3588
Broadway Legend Joined: 10/5/16
#2Tony Prediction Close Calls
Posted: 6/9/17 at 3:54pm
In my opinion, it would be absolutely ridiculous for anything other than Great Comet to win Scenic Design of a Musical. Mimi Lien did not just transform a stage, she transformed an entire theatre. I pray to every theatre god that she is recognized for that. The same goes for Orchestrations. Malloy's orchestrations are genius.
CurtainPullDowner
Broadway Legend Joined: 11/4/04
#3Tony Prediction Close Calls
Posted: 6/9/17 at 4:47pm
Rachel Bay was the favorite in her category but Jenn Colella's momentum is powerful, making this a very tight race.
SweetyTodd
Swing Joined: 10/6/14
#4Tony Prediction Close Calls
Posted: 6/9/17 at 4:50pm
I agree that MALLOY deserves to win Best Orchestrations.
And, yes, the Colella / Bay race is very tight!
#5Tony Prediction Close Calls
Posted: 6/9/17 at 4:57pm
Hochman's work on Hello Dolly is fine, but he essentially reduced the original charts for a smaller orchestra, right? I'm not saying that's easy, of course, but you already have a solid framework that Malloy wouldn't have with a new score.
As much as I loved Dolly, that's kind of how I feel about all of its technical nominations. I know it isn't straight-up recreation, but it just feels so...what you'd expect from the show. It's good work, just not surprising or terribly interesting, and I think there are worthier contenders for those awards.
I am a firm believer in serendipity- all the random pieces coming together in one wonderful moment, when suddenly you see what their purpose was all along.
#6Tony Prediction Close Calls
Posted: 6/9/17 at 5:02pm
I feel the same about Dolly, wonderfulwizard11. It's an immensely entertaining and joyful production, but I would not award it any technical awards.
"...everyone finally shut up, and the audience could enjoy the beginning of the Anatevka Pogram in peace."
SweetyTodd
Swing Joined: 10/6/14
#7Tony Prediction Close Calls
Posted: 6/9/17 at 5:22pm
What do you think about DIRECTOR (MUSICAL)?
I think Michael Greif's early lead may have faded and I think RACHEL CHAVKIN might be the pick that makes a lot of Tony voters feel hip.
#8Tony Prediction Close Calls
Posted: 6/9/17 at 5:28pm
Dolly does not deserve costume design over the masterful costumes of War Paint.
#9Tony Prediction Close Calls
Posted: 6/9/17 at 5:32pm
JimmyMcVideo said: "What do you think about DIRECTOR (MUSICAL)?
I think Michael Greif's early lead may have faded and I think RACHEL CHAVKIN might be the pick that makes a lot of Tony voters feel hip.
"
Did he ever have the lead? I think Chavkin has rightfully so, been the frontrunner for the longest time.
#10Tony Prediction Close Calls
Posted: 6/9/17 at 5:35pm
Buzz around the industry per my friends is that CFA will take Musical from DEH ...very close call
Also, Rachel Bay Jones-DEH and Jenn Colella-CFA very close call but leaning RBJ
"Anything you do, let it it come from you--then it will be new."
Sunday in the Park with George
#11Tony Prediction Close Calls
Posted: 6/9/17 at 5:36pm
I've seen more than a few people predict Michael Grief, largely on the basis that it's rare for a show to win Best Director if the production itself doesn't win. It's certainly possible, but I think Chavkin's work is impressive enough that she has a great chance to win. If she does, it would be a little like John Doyle winning for the Sweeney revival- the production itself wasn't rewarded, but the directorial vision was so strong that it didn't make sense not to give him the award.
I am a firm believer in serendipity- all the random pieces coming together in one wonderful moment, when suddenly you see what their purpose was all along.
BroadwayRox3588
Broadway Legend Joined: 10/5/16
#12Tony Prediction Close Calls
Posted: 6/9/17 at 5:37pm
JimmyMcVideo said: "What do you think about DIRECTOR (MUSICAL)?
I think Michael Greif's early lead may have faded and I think RACHEL CHAVKIN might be the pick that makes a lot of Tony voters feel hip.
"
Chavkin. With that intricate staging, that Tony's gotta be hers.
bexplex
Chorus Member Joined: 5/2/17
#13Tony Prediction Close Calls
Posted: 6/9/17 at 5:41pm
You hit it on the head comparing it to LaLa Land and Moonlight. The better movie loses and the one that is boring as hell wins. Good job. A+
Updated On: 6/9/17 at 05:41 PM#14Tony Prediction Close Calls
Posted: 6/9/17 at 5:43pm
ljay889 said: "Dolly does not deserve costume design over the masterful costumes of War Paint.
"Agree
"Anything you do, let it it come from you--then it will be new."
Sunday in the Park with George
jonlow09
Understudy Joined: 11/11/15
#15Tony Prediction Close Calls
Posted: 6/9/17 at 5:49pm
bexplex said: "You hit it on the head comparing it to LaLa Land and Moonlight. The better movie loses and the one that is boring as hell wins. Good job. A+
"
#16Tony Prediction Close Calls
Posted: 6/9/17 at 6:05pm
Wait bexplex - you're saying La La Land was a better movie than Moonlight? .... okay (it is not).
Caption: Every so often there was a rare moment of perfect balance when I soared above him.
Updated On: 6/9/17 at 06:05 PM
froote
Broadway Star Joined: 2/14/17
#17Tony Prediction Close Calls
Posted: 6/9/17 at 6:21pm
Valentina3 said: "Wait bexplex - you're saying La La Land was a better movie than Moonlight? .... okay (it is not)."
Yeah, not even close.
froote
Broadway Star Joined: 2/14/17
#18Tony Prediction Close Calls
Posted: 6/9/17 at 6:47pm
To answer the question, I think all the musical categories are close apart from leading actor, leading actress, orchestrations, scenic design, director and lighting design. If Comet doesn't get the latter 4 then I'll assume they really hated the show.
CurtainPullDowner
Broadway Legend Joined: 11/4/04
#20Tony Prediction Close Calls
Posted: 6/9/17 at 10:12pm
I think Best Play, Director of a Play, and Best Featured Actress in a Play could all go any number of ways.
Wayman_Wong
Broadway Legend Joined: 4/22/04
#21Tony Prediction Close Calls
Posted: 6/10/17 at 1:44pm
Jimmy McVideo, I agree with many of your close calls, but Mimi Lien's amazing set to ''The Great Comet'' is a slam-dunk to win.
Costume Design of a Musical: I'm not sure why so many folks are predicting ''Hello, Dolly!'' If Warren Carlyle got so much grief for recycling Gower Champion's choreography, aren't Santo Loquasto's costumes pretty close to Freddy Wittop's originals (except Loquasto's are brighter and more neon-hued)?
Scenic Design of a Play: ''The Play That Goes Wrong'' could win because its set really falls apart, but it's the only Tony nomination for that show. The question is: Will enough Tony voters have seen it? Or will they throw this award to the play they love more, like ''Jitney'' or ''Oslo''? (Same concerns about Lighting.)
Orchestrations: To me, it's between ''Bandstand'' and ''Great Comet.'' I'm thinking it could go to Dave Malloy because it's the only way to recognize his work (since he probably won't win Book or Score).
Best Musical: It might be too close to call, but if you check out the Tony predictions at GoldDerby.com, it's a slam-dunk for ''Dear Evan Hansen'': 15 out of 17. TheaterMania's David Gordon and I are the only ones predicting ''Come From Away'' (and we still have time until tomorrow to join the ''Hansen'' bandwagon).
Funny that you should compare ''Moonlight'' to ''Come From Away'' as the upset choice. Both ''La La Land,'' and ''Dear Evan Hansen,'' the heavy favorites, are Pasek and Paul's works.
By the way, here's a link to the Tony predix at GoldDerby.com:
http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/expert-predictions/tony-awards-2017/best-musical/
theater_tech
Stand-by Joined: 5/2/17
#22Tony Prediction Close Calls
Posted: 6/10/17 at 2:07pm
If there's one thing I would 200% bet my life on, it's that Comet will win Best Scenic Design. Hands down.
I was also very sure that Rachel Chavkin would get Best Direction, but now after reading all these predictions, I am emotionally preparing for the massive disappointment tomorrow when Michael Greif gets it. I can see the headlines now: genius female director loses to male director because God forbid they failed to give him one in the past for "Rent".
Note: Not hating on Greif; I loved DEH and thought his direction was great. It's just nowhere near Chavkin's.
leighmiserables
Broadway Star Joined: 4/26/17
#23Tony Prediction Close Calls
Posted: 6/10/17 at 2:35pm
The costume race is between Great Comet and War Paint. I don't see how Hello Dolly is even in the discussion. Yes, they're very nice, but as others have stated there's nothing "new" about them.
I also feel that Dave Malloy has an edge in Best Orchestrations, not only because he 100% deserves the award (regardless of your thoughts on the score, the orchestrations are utterly amazing) but because he's almost certainly not getting Score, and definitely not Book, so I could see the voters being more inclined to give him Orchestrations so that he doesn't walk away empty-handed.
CurtainPullDowner
Broadway Legend Joined: 11/4/04
#24Tony Prediction Close Calls
Posted: 6/10/17 at 2:41pm
Gold Derby has Colella and Jones neck and neck. Now that';s a race.
froote
Broadway Star Joined: 2/14/17
#25Tony Prediction Close Calls
Posted: 6/10/17 at 2:44pm
CurtainPullDowner said: "Gold Derby has Colella and Jones neck and neck. Now that';s a race."
Jeez, I don't understand how. I can't even remember anything Colella did apart from her solo and even that was just sung nicely. Jones isn't my choice either but between the two there's no comparison.
