My predictions never come true but here goes...

[PalJoey]

 

The president will resign by the 4th of July.

 

[South Florida]

Good to read you PJ.  Now I can call my bookie and bet the 5th of July.

[madbrian]

I think he will cling to the presidency as long as he can, and I don't think the current Congress will move that quickly. If it does come to that, does Pence choose Ryan as his VP?

[MoveOnGypsy]

It won't happen until 2018. Congress will let the country go into disarray nationally and internationally before they impeach him. The congress has to flip before anything happens. Until then, we give them hell.

[adamgreer]

I don't think there's any way this man resigns.  He'll never do that.  He'd have to be impeached, and I don't see enough House Republicans supporting that, which means we're stuck with him until 2018. 

[henrikegerman]

I think the only way he leaves before 2018 (and, then, only if the Dems control Congress), is through the 25th Amendment.  That may not be as crazy an idea as it sounds given how insanely on edge the White House is.    Trump can take the heat, he lives on it, and he'll never resign.  But those around him are getting sicker by the day of this ****.

[brdlwyr]

Resignation would likely be because he hates the job. He would NEVER admit to any error.  

But, I have no clue what will happen because there is no normal.  

[PalJoey]

Section Four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment has never been invoked, but it would be easier and quicker than impeachment.

===

 

Section 1. In case of the removal of the President from office or of his death or resignation, the Vice President shall become President.

Section 2. Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.

Section 3. Whenever the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, and until he transmits to them a written declaration to the contrary, such powers and duties shall be discharged by the Vice President as Acting President.

Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.

Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.

[brdlwyr]

Majority of the cabinet secretaries is the issue! 

[madbrian]

My reading of Section 4 is that it is intended as a temporary remedy, such as a president incapacitated by illness.  If it were invoked, Trump could immediately notify them that he is no longer incapacitated, and if Pence and the Cabinet challenged that, a 2/3 majority of BOTH HOUSES would be required to keep him out of office.  Or, an I misreading this?

[henrikegerman]

Yes. There are major obstacles with 25th Amendment remedies as well given the state of the cabinet and Congress.

However, if Pence and a majority of the cabinet reached a tipping point.  Which might happen given how crazy things are becoming.  And if, accordingly, they said they were convinced that Trump isn't able to do the job, it might be difficult for Congress to ignore that.  Perhaps giving more cover for Congressional Republicans to authorize Trump's removal than any evidence supporting an impeachment might.

I am not, however, sure that the intent is only to remedy temporary incapacity of the president.  Wasn't part of the reason the Amendment was passed to deal with the possibility of long-term incapacity of the president, as was contemplated by the prospect of Kennedy surviving assassination but remaining brain-dead indefinitely?  I'm not sure, but I recall that.  Of course that's also a different concern than a president like Trump... but both share poor long term prognosis for readiness to govern..



 

[madbrian]

I think we agree.  Looks like the first paragraph of Section 4 was intended to be temporary; it could be invoked quickly by the VP and a majority of the Cabinet.  However, in order to make it permanent, as described in the second paragraph, a 2/3 majority in both houses would be required to prevent a president who declared himself fit from taking the office back.  That would require every Dem in the House, plus > 100 Republicans.

[henrikegerman]

I think we largely agree.  But I don't think the distinction between the two bolded paragraphs is clearly or necessarily one of a temporary remedy versus a permanent one.

I see it more as distinguishing an uncontested transition of presidential power from a contested one.
Also, I'm not at all convinced that a president's attempt to regain authority, as prescribed by the second paragraph, would be limited to one try.

[madbrian]

Another factor which will drive the GOP tipping point will be Trump's support among GOP voters.  The most recent poll info I saw shows GOP support for him still at almost 80%.  That number will need to drop significantly before GOP members of Congress will oppose him.  In other words, we still need a significant number of Americans to wake up and realized they've been conned by a charlatan.

[South Florida]

I don't know if it's better for the Dems if this goes on a long time or if Pence is the Prez in June and their

agenda starts to get pushed through.  I imagine it's better for the country if this ends as soon as possible, but is it better for the Dems?

[PalJoey]

 

The tipping point gets closer and closer every day.

 

[sabrelady]

IF ( a big one) the 2018 elections decimate the Repubs, showing them the tide HAS turned they won't be able to throw President Caligula overboard fast enough

. Anything else is premature. He will never go voluntarily and the repubs still think he can keep them in power. ONLY if that is proven false ( and the jury is still out on that) will  "stuff happen"

Gonna be a LOOONG year.

[madbrian]

The appointment of Robert Mueller as Special Counsel is a tremendous step in the right direction, especially since it was done by Rod Rosenstein, without the involvement of Sessions or Trump.  Mueller has an impeccable reputation and track record.  However, with the current structure of the Special Counsel, Trump does have the authority to fire him.

If you missed Rachel Maddow's show last night, I highly recommend finding it on line.  She did a fantastic job of breaking this down.

[SNAFU]

But wouldn't Trump firing him look even worse then Comey?

 

[PalJoey]

 

Firing a special prosecutor would be fatal.

 

[madbrian]

Trump has survived countless incidents which would have been fatal to anyone else. 

[PalJoey]

 

Well, we won't have Jared to kick around much longer.

 

THE HILL: Kushner under pressure to take hiatus from White House: report

 

 

[SNAFU]

Great Freudian slip there "Take a leave of office--a leave of absence." I prefer the first. And where goeth the husband, there too goeth the wife.

 

[South Florida]

I hope you're right you guys.  I'm sick about this and it has not been good for relationships, if it ends I'll pretend it never happened.

 

[PalJoey]

 

Oh to be a fly on the wall at Jared and Ivanka's this weekend...

 

[SNAFU]

Bet he like Trump hasn't been getting any lately!