Humans Need Not Apply

[Call_me_jorge]

We are fifty years out from seeing a world with no jobs. Where over 50 of the workforce has been replaced by robots and computers. And what are we going to do about it? It seems like we have no intentions of finding a solution to ending this switch to a robot driven society. I would think it would be in our best interest to think of a future where we are under communism. We would no choice but forget about capitalism with the overwhelming majority of the country without a job. 

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/21/upshot/the-long-term-jobs-killer-is-not-china-its-automation.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur

https://youtu.be/7Pq-S557XQU

[dramamama611]

Because communism works?

[yankeefan7]

"We are fifty years out from seeing a world with no jobs. Where over 50 of the workforce has been replaced by robots and computers. And what are we going to do about it?"

Who fixes the servers, mainframe computers and robots when the don't work - lol.

[kdogg36]

The growth of automated labor will be disruptive for many, but will probably result in an overall expansion of the economy. This is how it's always been with technology. Some people will lose jobs, but overall it will free humans up to do higher-level intellectual work that machines can't do.

The classic story here involves the communications industry. A few decades ago, many thousands of people were employed operating switchboards for the telephone company. With the rise of automation, pretty much all of these jobs were lost within a rather short period of time. This surely caused severe pain for those individuals and families. However, in the end, technological advances have actually made the communications industry much bigger, not smaller: there are now many kinds of jobs that didn't even exist back when humans were operating switchboards, and most of them pay a lot more.

[henrikegerman]

Call-me-Jorge, I'm no political economist, but what reason do we have to assume that how a society reacts to the availability of ubiquitous automated labor would necessarily depend on whether that society's economic structure would be communist, socialist, or capitalist?  Wouldn't this brave new world call into question all previous assumptions about these various systems and their philosophies about humans and what had been their work? 

[darquegk]

We would no choice but forget about capitalism with the overwhelming majority of the country without a job. 

 

 

Okay, it seems something was lost in translation here which drastically changes the meaning of your statement.

 

Did you mean to say "We would have no choice but to forget about capitalism," i.e. capitalism would prove itself a dead horse and incompatible with the future?

 

Or did you mean to say "We would have no choice, but forget about capitalism," i.e. a utilitarian society where all are provided for is more important than one in which freedom of choice and individuality are given?

 

[Call_me_jorge]

The latter

[darquegk]

Hmm... it's not uncommon for teens to go through a brief libertarian phase, but I've never seen a teen aspire to anti-individualist utilitarian communism before. *crosses off block on Bingo card*

[kdogg36]

Just to expand on my post, I don't think we're anywhere close that brave new world that henrikegerman mentioned. What we'll see is automation of most physical labor and some fairly low-level "mental labor," and this is just a continuation of what we've already seen for many decades. 

However, work that requires any kind of real thinking will belong strictly to humans for the foreseeable future. That's because, despite all the talk of AI, no one is close to replicating human-like reason in machine form, and no one even has a plausible path to do so. I'm not saying it's impossible in the very long term, but as long as no one really knows how the human brain remembers and computes, there is zero chance of building a machine to replicate its function.

[hork]

We'll get rid of this ridiculous capitalist system someday. There are already more people than there are jobs that need to be done, and the divide will only expand as the population increases and more and more advancements are made in robotics and automation.

[kdogg36]

hork said: "We'll get rid of this ridiculous capitalist system someday."

I know different people mean different things when they use the term capitalism, so I'll avoid it myself. But I think it's beyond dispute that free-market economics has been of great benefit to human well-being, allowing for historically unprecedented advances in health and wealth for practically everyone. This doesn't mean it's perfect, or that inequalities don't need to be addressed, but the evidence for the benefits of market economies are overwhelming. If I were deciding my fate from behind the Rawlsian veil of ignorance, I'd pick a free-market economy over any other kind of system. 

 

[hork]

Health and wealth for practically everyone? What universe do you live in?

[kdogg36]

Yes, in the Western World, the vast majority of people live much more comfortable and longer lives than people lived at any other point in human history. 

[JM226]

^^^^^  YES --- THIS IS A FACT. CAN BE PROVED WITH ACTUAL STATISTICS. THANK YOU KDOGG!!!!

[hork]

People live longer and more comfortably because we've developed new medicines and technologies, not because we have a free market economy. But never mind, I don't want to get into an argument about this. 

[kdogg36]

hork said: "People live longer and more comfortably because we've developed new medicines and technologies, not because we have a free market economy. But never mind, I don't want to get into an argument about this."

Well, it seems I see a connection between those things and you don't. Other than noting that, I agree totally about not getting into it. :)

 

[JM226]

hork said: "People live longer and more comfortably because we've developed new medicines and technologies, not because we have a free market economy. But never mind, I don't want to get into an argument about this. 

 

"

developing new medicines and technologies only happens thanks to innovation which is propelled by free market capitalism --- i don't see us looking to north korea for any major improvements in our lives 

[sabrelady]

Any one remember their high school  history? Moving from an agrarian culture to a technological one? The Luddidites?