Can Democrats win congress in 2018?

[Kinky Boy]

I hope it happens so they stop Trump.

[Call_me_jorge]

If republicans could do it in 2010 I don't see why dems can't do it.

[Kinky Boy]

They need 24 seats in the House, and 3 seats in the Senate.

[Call_me_jorge]

They also need to make sure they could retain dem seats. Aren't most of the rustbelt senate dems have 2018 as their rejection year? 

[Kinky Boy]

no hopefully they will see how bad Trump is for them, and there will be a backlash against him and they will all keep their seats. The only way Dems can win back the senate is by keeping all their seats, and winning Arizona, Nevada, and Texas

[madbrian]

The Dems will be playing defense in the Senate in 2018.  They have a lot of seats to defend in rust belt states where Trump just won.  The House so so gerrymandered it will be difficult to take.  However, what needs to happen is for the majority of voters to wake from the trance they're under and realize we've been conned.  If that comes to pass, then yes, the Dems can take back Congress.

[AC126748]

I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the conservative democrats in solidly republican states (like Joe Manchin, Jon Tester, or Heidi Heitkamp) lost their seats. As a republican-leaning acquaintance once said to me: "why would I vote for a democrat who's essentially a republican when I can just vote for a republican?" I think we'll see that mindset grow.

Senators in states that flipped from red to blue should be nervous too. Tammy Baldwin and Sherrod Brown both won by unimpressive margins in 2012; they could easily lose if turnout isn't strong in this nonpresidential election. Claire McCaskill largely kept her seat because her 2012 opponent imploded; if Missouri republicans run a strong candidate, she could be gone too.

Moral of the story for democrats/liberals is, don't be complacent. Don't assume that Donald Trump is going to do such a bad job that democratic voters will come out in droves and take back the senate. That bridge has been burned before. Basically, don't take anything for granted.

[Petralicious]

I predict a Republican Apocalypse!

Oh wait, that was already guaranteed by an PalKnow-It-All back on November 1 and he lost his mind. He will respond next...

 

[PalJoey]

 

When half of the 50% of Americans who never vote decide to vote, things change. This has happened countless times in American history and can happen again, even though gerrymandering (which has been done by both sides, like a seesaw) makes it harder.

All it takes is for the rest of us to focus our rage into doing what the Republicans did to Obama from 2008-2016.

 

[kdogg36]

Even with the heavy gerrymandering, I don't think a gain of 24 House seats seems like that remote a possibility for a mid-term election under a polarizing president. In fact, I'd be mildly surprised if the Democrats didn't take the House in 2018. For the reasons others have mentioned, the Senate is a much harder climb for the Democrats, though I'm guessing they'll have more opportunities in 2020 since 2014 was so bad for them.

I'm not a Democrat but I think divided government is about the best thing I can hope for, especially with Trump as president. So I'll be pulling for them in 2018. :)

[Kinky Boy]

If Trump does a bad job, there will be a strong chance they win back the House. I honestly don't think the senate is that far out of reach considering Ted Cruz is so hated. Texas, Arizona, and Nevada are the targets.

[adamgreer]

There's not a chance a Democrat wins a Senate seat in Texas. You're dreaming. 

[Petralicious]

adamgreer said: "There's not a chance a Democrat wins a Senate seat in Texas. You're dreaming. 

 

"To be fair, a lot of know-it-alls predicted a Hillary Landslide and a Republican Apocalypse so you never know what can happen. 

 

[adamgreer]

Every election cycle, pundits and pollsters talk of a "purple" Texas, and every election cycle it remains solidly Republican.  I've learned to stop believing the rumors. 

[acekatherineplumber2]

If Joaquin Castro decides to run against Cruz, dems could stand a chance. 

[PalJoey]

 

His brother shoulda been the VP candidate with Hillary.

 

[brdlwyr]

Agreed! Kaine = stupid choice! 

[Call_me_jorge]

adamgreer said: "Every election cycle, pundits and pollsters talk of a "purple" Texas, and every election cycle it remains solidly Republican.  I've learned to stop believing the rumors. 

 

"

In theory Texas should be blue, it's a smaller California . With many large metropolitan areas and a pretty diverse population. 

[Kinky Boy]

Yea there are many people who can challenge Cruz. Especially if it's an anti trump year.

[brdlwyr]

At this point I do not believe prior conceived ideas apply! 

[Mister Matt]

In theory Texas should be blue, it's a smaller California . With many large metropolitan areas and a pretty diverse population. 

The 5 largest cities with populations over 700k (Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Austin, Ft. Worth) only make up 25% of the population of the state and only the first four of those were in blue counties for this election.  Trump won the state by a slimmer margin than Romney did in 2012, but the state would have needed at least a million people to flip from red to blue (more than the entire city of Austin).  Flipping Tarrant County (Ft. Worth), Nueces County (Corpus Christi) and Galveston County would need to be achieved and with the exception of Ft. Worth, if you've ever visited the other cities and towns in those counties, you'd know what a slim chance there would be in accomplishing it.  I grew up in Harris County near Houston, but right on the border of Montgomery County.  Montgomery County voted Trump 74%.  That gives you a good idea of how vastly different the suburbs and rural areas of Texas are from the metropolitan center of its large cities.  The population of Texas is not nearly as highly concentrated as California and it's the small towns and rural areas that ultimately win out in statewide election results.

[AC126748]

Call_me_jorge said: "adamgreer said: "Every election cycle, pundits and pollsters talk of a "purple" Texas, and every election cycle it remains solidly Republican.  I've learned to stop believing the rumors. 

 

"

In theory Texas should be blue, it's a smaller California . With many large metropolitan areas and a pretty diverse population. 

 

 


"

 

People have been trying to cast Texas as a swing state in waiting since you were in diapers. It hasn't happened yet. I don't foresee it happening two years from now. As Matt points out, the current demographics are not in the Ds favor.

[Kinky Boy]

but the wind is at their back considering the margin between dems and repubs keeps on tightening

[Mister Matt]

Not really.  There was a 1.8% increase in those voting D over 2012 (as opposed to the 5.2% increase in 2008 over 2004), but there was also a notable increase in those voting third-party.  The dems took a 2.3% hit in 2012, mostly likely due to Obama's performance.  And while R has been on a nearly 10% decline since 2004, the lack of wind in the D sails and the upswing in third-party votes help keep the suburban and rural areas in power.

The most interesting development in Texas has been the population growth spurt in the last 15 years, most notably in San Antonio which has now surpassed Dallas as the second largest city in Texas (with Houston maintaining its position as 1st largest in Texas and 4th largest in the US).  Both San Antonio and El Paso have a hispanic majority in the population and it will be interesting to see how this translates into voting habits with the increase of the generational population of the hispanic communities.

[yankeefan7]

Harder to accomplish in the House but stranger things have happened and opposing party of the President usually loses seats in the mid term. The numbers for Democrats are better in the Senate but they are defending more Senate seats than Republicans in 2018. The 2016 election is where the Democrats needed to take it back because Republicans had more seats to defend but in the end did not lose many.

[Petralicious]

While some people calling him Grinch, Chuck Schumer seems to get it.  Instead of the PalTin-foil-Hat wing of Party with all their conspiracies and fingerpoints... Blaming Racist Whites then Voter Fraud then White Women then WikiLeaks then Comey, then Fake News then Electoral College and the latest try, The Russians. He sees that it is his party message that was bad, or at least did not get out. This is good first step to correcting the 8 year loss of Democrat power.

Dem boss Schumer fires staffers after November rout

With Christmas days away, nearly every member of the Senate Democratic Media Center has been fired, a senior Democratic aide confirmed to Fox News. Schumer swung the axe on Friday, according to Politico, which first obtained “goodbye” emails from staffers, including some with decades' experience.

The move comes amid plans to revamp the unit, which handles video content, in an effort to help the Senate Democratic caucus get their message out in the New Year. The party not only lost the presidential race, it failed to capture the Senate or House and lost state legislative races throughout the country.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/12/sen-schumer-is-leading-democrats-to-their-doom-continued.html