Way too early 2017 Tony predictions

[wonderfulwizard11]

"Also, not sure why the length of the run would affect any awards candidate.  We've seen people win before for limited engagements..."

Of course they can, but it's certainly harder, especially in a competitive category. 

I didn't see Sunday at City Center, though I am going in February- I brought up Gyllenhaal because George is a great role and his reviews were glowing. I would still expect Platt to win even if the run were longer, but thus far he's pretty much walking away with the thing. 

[BroadwayConcierge]

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[neonlightsxo]

M Butterfly is delayed until the fall, per yesterday's news.

[pupscotch]

I'd really be surprised if anyone in any category turns in a better performance than Ben Platt. 

[disneybroadwayfan22]

Well, damn Best Actress is going to be exciting as hell. Especially if Sutton joins in.

Seconding neonlights : As a person who saw Christy in Anastasia, I can say it is extremely possible that she'll get a nomination. I can't think of a better Anastasia/Anya than Christy. Extremely touching and beautiful. If it wasn't for Bette or maybe even Patti, I would say that she would definitely be the front-runner. The only ways that Christy isn't nominated is if Sutton joins the race or if Christine doesn't get nominated because there are so many good actresses.

MY GUESSES:

Annaleigh Ashford 

Christy Altomare/Sutton Foster

Christine Ebersole/Sutton Foster/Denee Benton 

Patti LuPone

Bette Middler

 

[BroadwayRox3588]

Tell me more about this Ashleigh Ashford 

[disneybroadwayfan22]

Dammit: Annaleigh Ashford! Thanks Rox

[Jessetenny]

My guess is Bette, Patti, Christine, Annaleigh, and even though I know I'm a minority, I think Eva is going to get a nomination. Unless Sutton comes in this season

[Call_me_jorge]

I'm worried Patti and Christine will split and neither will get nominated. I'd be happy with just one of them being nominated, especially Christine.

[imeldasturn]

Christine got better reviews, why do you all think they'll nominate only LuPone? If only one gets a nod it will be Christine

[littlemouse921]

I'm probably in the minority here, but I would prefer it if some of the first timers got nominated instead. Sure it's great to have all these legends back on stage, but I don't think they should be nominated solely based in their name recognition.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

@littlemouse921, I agree.

Though as of now, the only potential first time nominees in the conversation are Christy Altomare, Denee Benton, Bette Midler (even though she received a special Tony Award in 1974), and Eva Noblezada.

The previous nominees are Laura Osnes and Phillipa Soo. The previous winners are Annaleigh Ashford, Christine Ebersole, and Patti LuPone.

[QueenAlice]

Keep in mind the Tony nominating committee also has the option of awarding special performance Tonys. For example, they could award someone like Midler a special Tony for her performance in HELLO DOLLY and then nominate 5 other women for the competitive Best Actress in a musical award.  This used to happen more frequently in decades past, but they did something similar with the girls playing Matilda.

[BroadwayConcierge]

I think people keep writing off Noblezada because she's not a usual name on here... but Kim is, uh, a pretty big role. Moreover, I believe she got raves in London.

I believe current Lead Actress possibilities now include: Christy Altomare, Annaleigh Ashford, Denée Benton, Christine Ebersole, Patti LuPone, Bette Midler, Eva Noblezada, Laura Osnes, Phillipa Soo.

Man, oh man! Sutton Foster better wait a season to come with Charity or my head's going to explode!

[aaaaaa15]

Although Eva didn't get nominated for an Olivier in a much less competitive category. How much that means I'm not sure.

[Sunny11]

Awards tend to be pretty good at spreading the wealth between industry newcomers, legends and inbetweeners regarding nominations I think. There will probably be a good mix next year.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

There's also the possibility that if there ends up being a tie in the nominating process, we could see six or seven nominees for Lead Actress in a Musical.

[HogansHero]

I sense that there are a lot of shows being discussed as in the running that folks have not seen (in addition, of course, to the ones nobody has seen). This is not horse racing. Six shows max from this group will be running post-Tonys, and at least 2 of them will be gone by Labor Day. Place your bets. 

[littlemouse921]

I saw Eva in London and definitely believe that it's likely for her to me nominated. I also think Christy has a shot too. I think my top 5 would be:

Christy Altomare

Annaleigh Ashford

Christine Ebersole

Bette Midler

Eva Noblezada

Dark Horse: Denee Benton

 

I think Patti might be the one to get the short end of the stick this year. I'm holding out on Laura Osnes and Phillipa Soo mainly because I'm haven't seen or heard enough of them yet. 

[neonlightsxo]

HogansHero said: "I sense that there are a lot of shows being discussed as in the running that folks have not seen (in addition, of course, to the ones nobody has seen). This is not horse racing. Six shows max from this group will be running post-Tonys, and at least 2 of them will be gone by Labor Day. Place your bets. "

 

I generally just assume that nobody who posts here has actually seen anything.

 

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

"Andy Karl got beyond glowing reviews for GROUNDHOG DAY.  And he's been nominated twice before.  I'm not sure why everyone is ruling him out so quickly."

 

Because I saw Groundhog Day and there's no comparison to what Ben is doing?

 

Okay. And that's your personal opinion.  There is no denying the reviews he got in London.  Weirder things have happened at the Tonys. The most "deserving" person or show doesn't always win...

[QueenAlice]

A little off topic -- but does anyone know how long Ben Platt is contracted for DEH?  My only disparaging thought watching his amazing, amazing performance was 'how is he going to sustain that for 8 shows a week for an indefinite period of time." I think the Tony is his unless he for some reason he is only doing a short run in the show.

[neonlightsxo]

What is successful in London is not always successful in New York, as has been discussed ad nauseum on this board.

[brodynky]

WiCkEDrOcKS said: ""Andy Karl got beyond glowing reviews for GROUNDHOG DAY.  And he's been nominated twice 

 

Okay. And that's your personal opinion.  There is no denying the reviews he got in London.  Weirder things have happened at the Tonys. The most "deserving" person or show doesn't always win...

True...as much as Ben Platt's performance blows me away and should definitely win, I can't help but get a David Hyde Pierce over Raul Esparza kinda vibe gnawing in my gut. We shall see...

 

 


"

 

 

[Brave Sir Robin2]

Not like it matters, but here are my predictions for Best Musical, based on hype from previous productions (and having seen the two nominees I chose that are now open):

Anastasia 
Come From Away 
Dear Evan Hansen 
Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812 
War Paint 

SPOILER: Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, Groundhog Day

[BroadwayConcierge]

Moving full list over to latest page.

Best Musical – Confirmed
Amélie
Anastasia
Bandstand
A Bronx Tale
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Come From Away
Dear Evan Hansen
Groundhog Day
Holiday Inn
In Transit
Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812
Paramour
War Paint

Best Play – Confirmed
A Doll's House, Part 2
The Encounter
Heisenberg
Indecent
Oh, Hello
Oslo
The Play That Goes Wrong
Significant Other
Sweat

Best Revival of a Musical – Confirmed
Cats
Falsettos
Hello, Dolly!
Miss Saigon
Sunday in the Park with George
Sunset Boulevard

Best Revival of a Play – Confirmed
The Cherry Orchard
The Front Page
The Glass Menagerie
Jitney
Les Liaisons Dangereuses
The Little Foxes
Present Laughter
The Price
Six Degrees of Separation

Confirmed, Ruling TBD
The Present (play: new or revival?)

Not Yet Announced
Half Time (new musical)
The Master Builder (play revival)
Ride the Cyclone (new musical)
Smokey Joe's Café (musical revival)
SpongeBob: The Musical (new musical)
Sweet Charity (musical revival)
To Kill a Mockingbird (play: new or revival?)
Whorehouse (musical revival)
The Wiz (musical revival)