Way too early 2017 Tony predictions

[little_sally]

Robbie2 said: "As for now locks...
Best Musical
Great Comet
DEH
Best Play
Heisenberg
Musical Revival
Falsettos
Play Revival
Front Page
Score
DEH
Great Comet

and of course
Ben Platt

I'm not really sure Heisenberg or The Front Page are locks. Lots of stuff has yet to open and those two will be long gone come Tony time. Neither got flat out raves either.









"

 

[disneybroadwayfan22]

Bette Middler and Patti LuPone

[RaisedOnMusicals]

There has been discussion here about the large number of eligible new musicals this season, and whether there should thus be a fifth nominee. Unfortunately, the rule is clearly written as follows:

Where there are nine or more eligible shows in a Best Show category, at the Tony Nominating Meeting, the Nominating Committee will be instructed to cast one vote each for four eligible shows as nominees on his/her secret ballot. Such ballot shall be collected and tabulated by a representative of the Accounting Firm. The four eligible shows with the highest number of votes will automatically be designated as the nominees in such category. A fifth nominee shall be added to the category in the event that the Accounting Firm determines that the difference in votes between the fourth highest ranked show and the fifth highest ranked show is three votes or less.
(B)

So, what that means is that the show that comes in fifth in the balloting must be just behind the show that comes in fourth, which might well preclude a fifth nominee this year when there will clearly be at least five deserving nominees. Two are locks, as stated by many, DEH and Great Comet (and my own opinion is that DEH will take home the prize), but then there will be several shows fighting for the remaining two slots. (Amelie, A Bronx Tale, Come From Away, Ground Hog Day, and War Paint (to name just five.) Based only on what I've heard, I'd throw in Come From away as a near lock for a nomination, which will leave several very good shows to duke it out.

 

[bwayrose7]

Since there will clearly be very good shows that miss out on a Best Musical nod, I'm wondering which shows could, at least in theory, commercially survive without snagging that nod, and which will have their fates sealed if they don't get it?

[pupscotch]

bwayrose7 said: "Since there will clearly be very good shows that miss out on a Best Musical nod, I'm wondering which shows could, at least in theory, commercially survive without snagging that nod, and which will have their fates sealed if they don't get it?

 

"

I think shows like Charlie and the Chocolate Factory and Anastasia could, and War Paint maybe could as well (due to Patti and Christine). I think Come From Away could have a tough time, because it's tough material and doesn't really have any stars.

[BroadwayConcierge]

DELETE

[LesWickedly]

Concierge, you put Sweat in Revival. 

[BroadwayConcierge]

delete

[Daddy Warbucks]

Any predictions on which show will take home the Tony for Best Musical Revival of the shows announced?  

 

Best Revival of a Musical – Confirmed
Cats
Falsettos
Hello, Dolly!
Miss Saigon
Sunset Boulevard

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

I think Cats will be completely left out of next year’s Tony Awards not just because of its underwhelming response, but also because it really is more of a remounting of the original production with some tweaks and additions. Falsettos may not end up winning Best Revival of a Musical since it will be closed by the time Tony Season rolls around, but I think it has a shot at a nomination.

As for the three we have yet to see...
Hello, Dolly!-Probably the most anticipated production of the season. Will it live up to the anticipation? It really has been a longtime since director Jerry Zaks has been able to hit a home run on Broadway.
Miss Saigon-Coming to New York after a successful run in London's West End. While previous Broadway productions from director Laurence Connor have been favorably received before, he has yet to actually hit a home run.
Sunset Boulevard-Also coming to New York after a successful run in London. While the production in London was well-received, I'm not sure how many Tony nominations the Broadway production could get. Glenn Close won't be eligible for Lead Actress in a Musical since she already won the award for playing Norma Desmond in 1995. Lonny Price's production is also much smaller than Trevor Nunn's, so I don't know how this one will do in the design categories.

I guess we shall wait and see how those three anticipated productions will turn out.

[BroadwayConcierge]

I still can't wrap my head around how rich the Actress categories are this season so far...

Lead: Christy Altomare, Denée Benton, Christine Ebersole, Patti LuPone, Bette Midler, Eva Noblezada, Laura Osnes, Phillipa Soo... and possibly Sutton Foster? Man, oh man.

Featured: Brittain Ashford, Stephanie J. Block, Jenn Colella, Amber Gray, Rachel Bay Jones, Caroline O'Connor, Mary Beth Peil...

And I'm positive I'm leaving out a bunch. What a great season with some fabulous and strong female roles on the way.

[LesWickedly]

As of right now, my prediction for Best Actress ina Leading Role in a Musical are Bette, Christine, Patti, Denée and Phillipa, with Sutton taking Soo's nomination if Sweet Charity comes.

[neonlightsxo]

I would not put money on Denee over Christy Altomare.

[LesWickedly]

neonlightsxo said: "I would not put money on Denee over Christy Altomare.

 

"

I was pondering that, but I believe that Denée's nomination would be for the show, like in past years like Soo in Hamilton. Still not fully sure about Anastasia, as it could be the Tuck Everlasting of this season. 

[BroadwayConcierge]

Soo got a Tony nomination last year because she gave a Tony nomination-deserving performance, not because of a bandwagon effect.

I believe Anastasia is a more challenging and meatier role than Natasha, so I'll have to agree with neon here that Altomare is looking more primed for a slot than Benton.

[neonlightsxo]

I'm also not just making stuff up like most of the people in this thread. I saw Anastasia out of town, and I've also seen Denee in Great Comet.

[aaaaaa15]

BroadwayConcierge said: "Soo got a Tony nomination last year because she gave a Tony nomination-deserving performance, not because of a bandwagon effect."

Thankyou! A nomination over Audra of all people would not have been given if they didn't think her performance was worthy of it.

I tentatively agree with the LuPone, Ebersole, Midler, Altomare and Soo lineup for now. Also agree that Soo is the most fragile for a potential Sutton/other block, providing the writers of Amelie don't write her a big song like people in the LA thread are suggesting.

[HogansHero]

neonlightsxo said: "I'm also not just making stuff up like most of the people in this thread. I saw Anastasia out of town, and I've also seen Denee in Great Comet."

how dare you!

[BroadwayConcierge]

[QueenAlice]

And we can add Ashford and Gyllenhaal to the slate for potential acting nominees. What a crazy wonderful season this is turning into.

[wonderfulwizard11]

If Sunday were running longer than 10 weeks, I think Gyllenhaal would be the only potential nominee to pose a threat to Ben Platt.

[neonlightsxo]

Jake may be nominated, extension or not, but still wouldn't beat Ben Platt, IMO.

[BroadwayConcierge]

George is a meaty role, but Gyllenhaal's performance at City Center didn't even register as close in comparison to what Platt is doing in DEH.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Andy Karl got beyond glowing reviews for GROUNDHOG DAY.  And he's been nominated twice before.  I'm not sure why everyone is ruling him out so quickly.

Also, not sure why the length of the run would affect any awards candidate.  We've seen people win before for limited engagements...

[neonlightsxo]

"Andy Karl got beyond glowing reviews for GROUNDHOG DAY.  And he's been nominated twice before.  I'm not sure why everyone is ruling him out so quickly."

 

Because I saw Groundhog Day and there's no comparison to what Ben is doing?

[wonderfulwizard11]

"Also, not sure why the length of the run would affect any awards candidate.  We've seen people win before for limited engagements..."

Of course they can, but it's certainly harder, especially in a competitive category. 

I didn't see Sunday at City Center, though I am going in February- I brought up Gyllenhaal because George is a great role and his reviews were glowing. I would still expect Platt to win even if the run were longer, but thus far he's pretty much walking away with the thing.