Way too early 2017 Tony predictions

[BroadwayRox3588]

Jeffrey Karasarides said: "Please keep in mind that now there's 5 eligible contenders for Best Revival of a Musical. Meaning that the nominators will only be given 3 slots to fill in that category when determining the nominations. A fourth slot is still possible, but only if there's a close race between 2 shows in the nominating process within 3 votes or less.

 

"

Very possible, since it happened last season. (Although I do think there will only be 3 this season)

[pupscotch]

I think the nominees for revival will be Falsettos, Miss Saigon, and Hello, Dolly!. I would be extremely shocked if CATS gets nominated for ANYTHING, and from what I've gathered, Sunset is more of a money grab than anything else, and just a remount of the original. That said, I obviously haven't seen it yet, so we'll see.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

I wouldn't call the new production of Sunset Boulevard a remounting of the original.

[10086sunset]

Sunset Boulevard is the last thing from being a remount...

The two shows are night and day...

[JudyDenmark]

Just for kicks I've been making my (too early) nomination predictions list, and the category that seems to be the most wide open to me is Featured Actor in a Musical. I think Andrew Rannells and Lucas Steele are probably locks (assuming Jon Jon Briones goes to Leading, based on London reviews), but there are just SO many options... it'll be interesting to see how this category shakes out once the productions start opening.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Given the fact that Jonathan Pryce won the Tony for Lead Actor as The Engineer (despite the controversy) in the original production, as well as the fact that Jon Jon Briones earned an Olivier nomination for Lead Actor in the West End revival, I think it's safe to assume that he'll be eligible as Lead at the Tonys.

I think another possibility for a Featured Actor in a Musical nomination is Corbin Bleu. After having previously appeared on Broadway as replacements in In the Heights and the most recent revival of Godspell, he wowed everyone as a song-and-dance man in Holiday Inn.

[bakerswife372]

What do folks think for the categories OTHER than performance and best play/musical? (Listed below as a refresher). 

 

Book of a Musical

Score

Orchestrations

Set Design (Play/Musical)

Lighting Design (Play/Musical)

Costume Design (Play/Musical)

Direction (Play/Musical)

Choreography

 

 

[RaisedOnMusicals]

For book, score and direction I believe it will be DEH. I don't know enough about the other categories to make predictions. 

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

bakerswife372 said: "What do folks think for the categories OTHER than performance and Best Play/Musical?"

Best Book of a Musical
Come From Away
Dear Evan Hansen
Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812
Fourth Slot: Anastasia or Groundhog Day

Best Original Score
Come From Away
Dear Evan Hansen
Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812
Fourth Slot: Anastasia or Groundhog Day

Best Orchestrations
Larry Blank-Holiday Inn, The New Irving Berlin Musical
August Eriksmoen-Come From Away
Alex Lacamoire-Dear Evan Hansen
Dave Malloy-Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812

Best Direction of a Musical
Christopher Ashley-Come From Away
Rachel Chavkin-Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812
Michael Greif-Dear Evan Hansen
James Lapine-Falsettos
Fifth Slot: Laurence Connor-Miss Saigon or Jerry Zaks-Hello Dolly!

Best Choreography
Andy Blankenbuehler-Bandstand
Warren Carlyle-Hello, Dolly!
Kelly Devine-Come From Away
Denis Jones-Holiday Inn, the New Irving Berlin Musical
Sam Pinkleton-Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812

[JudyDenmark]

Are the orchestrations in Sunset Boulevard new? If they are, I feel like it probably has a great shot since it seems to be one of the biggest talking points of this production.

[LesWickedly]

RaisedOnMusicals said: "For book, score and direction I believe it will be DEH. I don't know enough about the other categories to make predictions. 

 

"

Book and score maybe, but direction is without a doubt going to Great Comet.

[bwayphreak234]

^ I second this.

[Harrisonmlewis]

Just saw both Great Comet and DEH this weekend. Hands down think Dear Evan Hansen should win best musical. It really blew Great Comet out of the park entirely in my opinion.

[Robbie2]

Best Revival Musical

Falsettos

Hello Dolly

Miss Saigon

[Rainah]

Look if Great Comet doesn't win best direction and best set design I'll eat my hat. DEH is really strong on character work, but there was some incredible directing choices/challenges over at the imperial. So interesting and inventive. 

[neonlightsxo]

"Best Book of a Musical
Come From Away
Dear Evan Hansen
Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812
Fourth Slot: Anastasia or Groundhog Day"

 

How many of those have you seen Jeffrey?

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

neonlightsxo said: ""Best Book of a Musical
Come From Away
Dear Evan Hansen
Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812
Fourth Slot: Anastasia or Groundhog Day"

How many of those have you seen Jeffrey?"

I've seen Dear Evan Hansen, The Great Comet, and a bootleg of Anastasia when it was out-of-town. I'm basing the chances of Come From Away and Groundhog Day on their buzz coming in.

[BroadwayConcierge]

Bumping this just so it's on the latest page.

Best Musical – Confirmed
Amélie
Anastasia
Bandstand
A Bronx Tale
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Come From Away
Dear Evan Hansen
Groundhog Day
Holiday Inn
In Transit
Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812
Paramour
War Paint

Best Play – Confirmed
A Doll's House, Part 2
The Encounter
Heisenberg
Indecent
Oh, Hello
Oslo
The Play That Goes Wrong
The Present
Significant Other
Sweat

Best Revival of a Musical – Confirmed
Cats
Falsettos
Hello, Dolly!
Miss Saigon
Sunset Boulevard

Best Revival of a Play – Confirmed
The Cherry Orchard
The Front Page
The Glass Menagerie
Les Liaisons Dangereuses
The Little Foxes
Present Laughter
The Price
Six Degrees of Separation

TBD Ruling
Jitney (likely Play Revival?)

[AEA AGMA SM]

Obviously it's still waiting an official ruling, but I can not imagine a world where Jitney is not deemed a revival under the classics rule.

[James2]

I don't have a program for Paramour (or at least not a recent one), so are the three leads above or below the title?  I'm assuming they're below the title and considered Featured, but I didn't know for sure.

[neonlightsxo]

AEA AGMA SM said: "Obviously it's still waiting an official ruling, but I can not imagine a world where Jitney is not deemed a revival under the classics rule."

Yup

[South Florida]

Stephanie J. is everything.

[Daddy Warbucks]

With all the buzz and the great reviews for Sunset Blvd, does it have a shot at winning Best Revival of a Musical?  I don't think there is a clear front runner.

Best Revival of a Musical – Confirmed
Cats
Falsettos
Hello, Dolly!
Miss Saigon
Sunset Boulevard

[BroadwayConcierge]

I think Sunset is well on its way to a nomination, but I do think Dolly! remains the frontrunner for Revival, unless it somehow ends up being totally disastrous...

[icecreambenjamin]

Daddy Warbucks said: "With all the buzz and the great reviews for Sunset Blvd, does it have a shot at winning Best Revival of a Musical?  I don't think there is a clear front runner.

Best Revival of a Musical – Confirmed
Cats
Falsettos
Hello, Dolly!
Miss Saigon
Sunset Boulevard

 

"

I would, frankly, be very surprised if it landed a nomination.  I'm expecting to see the nominees be Hello Dolly, Falsettos, and Miss Saigon.  If there is a fourth nomination, it may go to Sunset Boulevard.  Even though it hasn't opened yet, Hello Dolly has some ridiculous buzz surounding it.  Only time will tell, but Dolly looks to be the frontrunner.  Although, I saw the London production of Miss Saigon a couple of years ago and it's absolutely gorgeous, but the Tonys will probably want to award an American production of an American musical.  Falsettos will be long closed and Sunset Blvd is a limited run and the Tonys don't like to award limited runs.

I also think that best actress will be very interesting.  I expect to probably see Bette Midler, Eva Noblezada, Patti Lupone, Christine Ebersole, and Denee Benton nominated.

 

[neonlightsxo]

I always get confused by this rule but yeah it looks like only three slots.