Way too early 2017 Tony predictions

[PaulWom]

The only thing I based the Ben Platt point on is that he seems to be the pinpoint of most of the DEH reviews, whereas in the Comet reviews, "the show" is the thing. As seen recently with Color Purple's grosses dipping severely when Cynthia took a vacation, I would also argue that Platt is a draw for many people who have bought tickets. Again, I yield- because there's really no way of knowing either point to be true until we see the grosses for each after their respective "stars" have left.

[bwayphreak234]

PaulWom said: "I would also argue that Platt is a draw for many people who have bought tickets."

I don't think this is the case at all...

 

[haterobics]

PaulWom said: "The only thing I based the Ben Platt point on is that he seems to be the pinpoint of most of the DEH reviews, whereas in the Comet reviews, "the show" is the thing."

Yes, but that is the true nature of both shows, though. DEH has a very specific lead role, and Comet is an ensemble. Ben is more unknown and has a lot of show to carry, and Josh is very well known and is making his theater debut, so both are credited for doing well with their respective burdens. Ben will get more credit for standing out, as an unknown, and Josh will get more credit for fitting in, as a celebrity.

The fact that two original musicals (unless we really think 70-odd pages of War and Peace were an obvious adaptation waiting to be plucked) are making $1M+ for delivering amazing nights in the theater is a pretty good state of things... and, of course, the ticket selling abilities of either should have no weight on who is delivering a better Tony-worthy performance in any case.

[icecreambenjamin]

I'm actually really hoping to have a rare Fiorello!/Sound of Music situation this year.  Comet and Hansen are both great shows that are so different from each other and both deserve best musical.

[PaulWom]

icecreambenjamin said: "I'm actually really hoping to have a rare Fiorello!/Sound of Music situation this year.  Comet and Hansen are both great shows that are so different from each other and both deserve best musical.

 

"

That would be amazing. Truly, I cannot think of a season in recent memory in which two new, original musicals that were so different and yet so brilliant in opposite ways competed against each other. They both advance the theater in their own unique way! We are incredibly lucky to have both this season.

[GiantsInTheSky2]

If Miss Saigon awards record in the West End revival  is anything to go by then it's possible only Jon Jon will get the nomination as both Eva and Rachelle were missed however Rachelle won in all the other UK theatre awards for Gigi.

[Born in a Ditch]

Just saw Natasha and Evan Hansen the the other day and was blown away by both. 

Predicted Natasha nods: (Bold is a lock, others are possibilities) 

Best Musical

Leading Actor: Josh Groban

Leading Actress: Denee Benton

Featured Actor: Lucas Steele 

Featured Actress: Amber Gray

Featured Actress: Brittan Ashford 

Best Score

Best Book

Costume Design

Lighting Design

Set Design 

Predicted DEH nods: 

Best Musical

Best Leading Actor: Ben Platt

Best Featured Actress: Rachel Bay Jones

Best Book

Best Score

Lighting Design

Set Design 

[neonlightsxo]

Has anybody heard about when the administration committee is meeting? Shouldn't that be happening soon?

[BroadwayConcierge]

Bumping this.

Best Musical – Confirmed
Amélie
Anastasia
Bandstand
A Bronx Tale
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Come From Away
Dear Evan Hansen
Groundhog Day
Holiday Inn
In Transit
Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812
Paramour
War Paint

Best Play – Confirmed
A Doll's House, Part 2
The Encounter
Heisenberg
Indecent
Oh, Hello
Oslo
The Play That Goes Wrong
Significant Other
Sweat

Best Revival of a Musical – Confirmed
Cats
Falsettos
Hello, Dolly!
Miss Saigon
Sunday in the Park with George
Sunset Boulevard

Best Revival of a Play – Confirmed
The Cherry Orchard
The Front Page
The Glass Menagerie
Jitney
Les Liaisons Dangereuses
The Little Foxes
Present Laughter
The Price
Six Degrees of Separation

Confirmed, Ruling TBD
The Present (play: new or revival?)

Not Yet Announced
Half Time (new musical)
The Master Builder (play revival)
Ride the Cyclone (new musical)
Smokey Joe's Café (musical revival)
SpongeBob: The Musical (new musical)
Sweet Charity (musical revival)
To Kill a Mockingbird (play: new or revival?)
Whorehouse (musical revival)
The Wiz (musical revival)

[GreasedLightning]

Just adding my two cents: I'd really like to see Ben take home Best Actor, but I'd really like to see Natasha, Pierre take home Best Musical. 

[BroadwayConcierge]

GreasedLightning said: "Just adding my two cents: I'd really like to see Ben take home Best Actor, but I'd really like to see Natasha, Pierre take home Best Musical."

Totally agreed!

[JudyDenmark]

This is shaping up to be one hell of an icon-filled Leading Actress in a Musical race. Bette, Patti, Glenn, Christine...!

Not that any of them are a lock (well, besides Bette), but who else? Philippa Soo? Laura Osnes? Annaleigh Ashford? Denee Benton? Eva Noblezada? Christy Altomare? 

I do not envy the nominating committee this year.

[broadwayguy91]

Glenn can't be nominated for the same role that she won years ago.

I hope they nominate Christy and Eva and leave out Bette. 

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

We shall see which potential candidate will stand out most this season.

[LesWickedly]

These are who I think will be nominated for Best Actress

Annaleigh Ashford

Denée Benton

Christine Ebersole

Patti LuPone 

Bette Midler

and at this point, I see Bette taking it, but without any knowledge of what her performance is like.

 

[JudyDenmark]

LesWickedly said: "These are who I think will be nominated for Best Actress
Annaleigh Ashford
Denée Benton
Christine Ebersole
Patti LuPone 
Bette Midler
and at this point, I see Bette taking it, but without any knowledge of what her performance is like."

I agree with all of that, though I could also see Laura Osnes sneaking in there. Based on the through-the-roof rave press quotes on the marquee/front of house for Dolly, not to mention her buzz and the (deserved) icon status, I'd be pretty surprised if Bette didn't win. Though it's early in the season yet, so who knows.

(And thanks, Broadwayguy91, for the reminder about Glenn Close's eligibility!)

[ViniFromBrazil]

I was really unimpressed with Benton's performance. If I were a Tony voter and I would vote for Josh Groban, Lucas Steele, Brittain Ashford and maybe Amber Gray. Given that we still have to wait for Eva Noblezada, Christy Altomare and Phillipa Soo, today I would bet the four other ladies (Ashford, Ebersole, LuPone and Midler) and Soo.

And since this is my first post in this thread, here's my mini-list:

Musical:
Dear Evan Hansen
Natasha, Pierre and The Great Comet of 1812
Groundhog Day
War Paint
Come From Away

Revival:
Hello, Dolly!
Sunday in the Park with George
Sunset Boulevard
Miss Saigon

Lead Actor:
Ben Platt
Josh Groban
Jake Gyllenhaal
Andy Karl
Jon Jon Briones

Lead Actress:
Bette Midler
Annaleigh Ashford
Christine Ebersole
Patti LuPone
Phillipa Soo

Featured Actor:
Lucas Steele
Gavin Creel
Michael Xavier
Brandon Uranowitz
Corbin Bleu

Featured Actress:
Laura Bay Jones
Jennifer Laura Thompson
Brittain Ashford
Barrett Doss
Jenn Colella

[VanillaIceCream2]

Not sure why anyone's discounting Stephanie J. Block's gorgeous Trina. Since that's historically a featured role, she has an excellent shot at a nom. 

[smidge]

I wish PBS would broadcast Falsettos in April so voters are reminded of Stephanie's performance. 

[VanillaIceCream2]

That's a great idea, smidge. Is that a real possibility, or does PBS always broadcast Live from Lincoln Center in the fall? I have limited experience, but if I remember correctly Act One premiered in the fall almost a year and a half after filming. 

[BroadwayConcierge]

Bumping this now that we know that The Present will officially be ruled as an original play.

Best Musical – Confirmed
Amélie
Anastasia
Bandstand
A Bronx Tale
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Come From Away
Dear Evan Hansen
Groundhog Day
Holiday Inn
In Transit
Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812
Paramour
War Paint

Best Play – Confirmed
A Doll's House, Part 2
The Encounter
Heisenberg
Indecent
Oh, Hello
Oslo
The Play That Goes Wrong
The Present
Significant Other
Sweat

Best Revival of a Musical – Confirmed
Cats
Falsettos
Hello, Dolly!
Miss Saigon
Sunday in the Park with George
Sunset Boulevard

Best Revival of a Play – Confirmed
The Cherry Orchard
The Front Page
The Glass Menagerie
Jitney
Les Liaisons Dangereuses
The Little Foxes
Present Laughter
The Price
Six Degrees of Separation

Not Yet Announced
Half Time (new musical)
The Master Builder (play revival)
Ride the Cyclone (new musical)
Smokey Joe's Café (musical revival)
SpongeBob: The Musical (new musical)
Sweet Charity (musical revival)
To Kill a Mockingbird (play: new or revival?)
Whorehouse (musical revival)
The Wiz (musical revival)

[neonlightsxo]

Also Josh Groban is the leading actor, not featured as he should be.

[BroadwayConcierge]

Bumping this now that Sunday in the Park with George has removed itself from Revival considerations.

Best Musical – Confirmed
Amélie
Anastasia
Bandstand
A Bronx Tale
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Come From Away
Dear Evan Hansen
Groundhog Day
Holiday Inn
In Transit
Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812
Paramour
War Paint

Best Play – Confirmed
A Doll's House, Part 2
The Encounter
Heisenberg
Indecent
Oh, Hello
Oslo
The Play That Goes Wrong
The Present
Significant Other
Sweat

Best Revival of a Musical – Confirmed
Cats
Falsettos
Hello, Dolly!
Miss Saigon
Sunset Boulevard

Best Revival of a Play – Confirmed
The Cherry Orchard
The Front Page
The Glass Menagerie
Jitney
Les Liaisons Dangereuses
The Little Foxes
Present Laughter
The Price
Six Degrees of Separation

[BroadwayConcierge]

My current (and of course, meaningless, just-for-funzies) predictions, now that Sunday is out of the mix: 

Best Musical
Anastasia
Come From Away
Dear Evan Hansen
Groundhog Day
Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812
Potential Swaps: War Paint, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory

Best Revival of a Musical
Falsettos
Hello, Dolly!
Miss Saigon
Sunset Boulevard
Potential Swap: Cats

Best Actor in a Musical
Christian Borle – Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Jon-Jon Briones – Miss Saigon
Josh Groban – Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812
Andy Karl – Groundhog Day
Ben Platt – Dear Evan Hansen

Best Actress in a Musical
Christy Altomare – Anastasia
Christine Ebersole – War Paint
Patti LuPone – War Paint
Bette Midler – Hello, Dolly!
Phillipa Soo – Amélie
Potential Swaps: Eva Noblezada (Miss Saigon), and Denée Benton (Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812)

Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Gavin Creel – Hello, Dolly!
Ramin Karimloo – Anastasia
Andrew Rannells – Falsettos
Lucas Steele – Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812
Brandon Uranowitz – Falsettos

Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Stephanie J. Block – Falsettos
Jenn Colella – Come From Away
Amber Gray – Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812
Rachel Bay Jones – Dear Evan Hansen
Caroline O’Connor – Anastasia OR Mary Beth Peil – Anastasia
Potential Swap: Brittain Ashford – Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Please keep in mind that now there's 5 eligible contenders for Best Revival of a Musical. Meaning that the nominators will only be given 3 slots to fill in that category when determining the nominations. A fourth slot is still possible, but only if there's a close race between 2 shows in the nominating process within 3 votes or less.

[BroadwayRox3588]

Jeffrey Karasarides said: "Please keep in mind that now there's 5 eligible contenders for Best Revival of a Musical. Meaning that the nominators will only be given 3 slots to fill in that category when determining the nominations. A fourth slot is still possible, but only if there's a close race between 2 shows in the nominating process within 3 votes or less.

 

"

Very possible, since it happened last season. (Although I do think there will only be 3 this season)