Way too early 2017 Tony predictions

[BroadwayConcierge]

Moving full list over to latest page.

Best Musical – Confirmed
Amélie
Anastasia
Bandstand
A Bronx Tale
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Come From Away
Dear Evan Hansen
Groundhog Day
Holiday Inn
In Transit
Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812
Paramour
War Paint

Best Play – Confirmed
A Doll's House, Part 2
The Encounter
Heisenberg
Indecent
Oh, Hello
Oslo
The Play That Goes Wrong
Significant Other
Sweat

Best Revival of a Musical – Confirmed
Cats
Falsettos
Hello, Dolly!
Miss Saigon
Sunday in the Park with George
Sunset Boulevard

Best Revival of a Play – Confirmed
The Cherry Orchard
The Front Page
The Glass Menagerie
Jitney
Les Liaisons Dangereuses
The Little Foxes
Present Laughter
The Price
Six Degrees of Separation

Confirmed, Ruling TBD
The Present (play: new or revival?)

Not Yet Announced
Half Time (new musical)
The Master Builder (play revival)
Ride the Cyclone (new musical)
Smokey Joe's Café (musical revival)
SpongeBob: The Musical (new musical)
Sweet Charity (musical revival)
To Kill a Mockingbird (play: new or revival?)
Whorehouse (musical revival)
The Wiz (musical revival)

[M.O.A.I.]

Right now this season's got 19 plays and 19 musicals, 15/16 revivals and 22/23 new shows (depending on The Present's ruling.) What a well balanced season!

[BwayDreamer00]

OMG this year is gonna be so competitive jeez, like last year we knew a month before the Tonys that Hamilton would sweep but its gonna be neck and neck this year. 

Anastasia-I feel like Anastasia will get a lot of nominations but won't win any (this happens to a show every year)

A Bronx Tale-I think it'll get a few but not a lot.....

Dear Evan Hansen and Great Comet will be the shows that will be neck and neck for all the big awards-Best musical, actor, etc... 

War Paint-It'll get a few noms NOT a ton but probably best musical best actress etc..

Bandstand-I have no idea...lol we'll have to wait and see!

For revivals....I feel like its gonna be really neck and neck for the showstopping Miss Saigon and the heartfelt Falsettos Hello Dollys gonna be nominated too but not as tight as the other too....people are still bitter tho about Saigon loosing to Will Rodgers Follies in 1991 (which I kind of am too) so it does deserve it but Falsettos is so amazing ugh I can't decideeeeee still its 6 months away lol hold your horses

[Cfried]

I saw Laura in BANDSTAND at Paper Mill and in my opinion, there is no way she's getting a nomination. That's not to say she's not tremendously talented (because she is), but the show does not give her a real opportunity to shine. Again, just my thoughts. 

 

We'll see what's changed come Spring. 

[pupscotch]

The real competition is between Dear Evan Hansen and Great Comet, but I'm curious, because I haven't yet seen it on Broadway, is Josh Groban's part large enough for Best Actor? Or will he end up in Featured? Because I would think Lucas Steele has a very good chance of winning Featured Actor, but if he is up against Josh, they could split the vote and I'm not quite sure who'd win. 

[neonlightsxo]

Groban is featured.

[IdinaBellFoster]

They'd have to petition Groban to be Featured as he's above the title. I think they'll keep him in Leading. Even in a crowded field I think he can get a nomination.

[QueenAlice]

Groban could potentially WIN in supporting though.  But my guess is that the Tony nominating committee will keep him lead - since you know the title is Natasha, Pierre...

I don't think MISS SAIGON will win revival. Even without seeing the others, I think HELLO DOLLY or SUNDAY IN THE PARK could potentially best it easily. They are simply more beloved musicals. I think FALSETTOS won't win simply because it will be long gone by the Tonys.

 

 

[neonlightsxo]

"Groban could potentially WIN in supporting though.  "

That's my thought too...

[IdinaBellFoster]

neonlightsxo said: ""Groban could potentially WIN in supporting though.  "

That's my thought too..."

Very true - he absolutely could. It's a shame FALSETTOS will have been closed for quite some time by then...I'd love to see Uranowitz or Rannells actually contend.

[wonderfulwizard11]

Outside of Steele and potentially Groban, who else might be in the running for Featured Actor? Creel or Karimloo, maybe? Other than the men from Falsettos, there hasn't really been a strong frontrunner from any of the fall shows that I can think of. 

[neonlightsxo]

Those were my two thoughts as well, maybe John Bolton. There are no featured roles in Groundhog Day.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

QueenAlice said: "I don't think MISS SAIGON will win revival. Even without seeing the others, I think HELLO DOLLY or SUNDAY IN THE PARK could potentially best it easily. They are simply more beloved musicals. I think FALSETTOS won't win simply because it will be long gone by the Tonys."

I'm not sure if a production can win Best Revival of a Musical just because the original material is so beloved. Otherwise, Fiddler on the Roof or She Loves Me would've won this year over The Color Purple. Not to mention that Sunday in the Park with George is going to close a week before Tony nominations are even announced (unless of course, it ends up extending).

I also wouldn't call Hello, Dolly! a frontrunner just yet. It's the only remaining production that's opening cold on Broadway as the other revivals have already had prior productions. It also has been a long while since director Jerry Zaks has been able to hit a home run on Broadway.

[IdinaBellFoster]

wonderfulwizard11 said: "Outside of Steele and potentially Groban, who else might be in the running for Featured Actor? Creel or Karimloo, maybe? Other than the men from Falsettos, there hasn't really been a strong frontrunner from any of the fall shows that I can think of. "

Just off the top of my head:

Lucas Steele, THE GREAT COMET

Gavin Creel, HELLO, DOLLY!

Michael Park, DEAR EVEN HANSEN

John Bolton, ANASTASIA

Ramin Karimloo, ANASTASIA

Brandon Uranowitz, FALSETTOS

Andrew Rannells, FALSETTOS

Anthony Rosenthal, FALSETTOS

 

Also you could have one or more of the men from A BRONX TALE, WAR PAINT or COME FROM AWAY. Not sure about supporting men in GROUNDHOG DAY.

[HogansHero]

The Comet producers will not petition, and will try to avoid the reclassification because the last thing they want is more publicity that Groban's role is not in a starring role. He will get a nomination regardless, and winning will not be important because he will be headed for the curb shortly anyway. What is important is that his replacement not be viewed as supporting, because it seems to me they are going to have to star cast this if they hope to keep the show going. 

[ELP]

I'm a little confused. The cast of Falsettos doesn't have any leads? Andrew, Christian and Stephanie would be considered "Featured" not "Leads"? Is this because it's considered an ensemble cast? Uranowitz I get as "Featured" and no doubt will be nominated as such, it's the others that I'm not understanding.

[pupscotch]

ELP said: "I'm a little confused. The cast of Falsettos doesn't have any leads? Andrew, Christian and Stephanie would be considered "Featured" not "Leads"? Is this because it's considered an ensemble cast? Uranowitz I get as "Featured" and no doubt will be nominated as such, it's the others that I'm not understanding.

 

"

From my understanding, Christian would be in Lead, Stephanie could go either way (though more likely in Featured, as the original Trina was nominated there), and Andrew is Featured.

[NOWaWarning]

I really hope some of the Falsettos folks sneak in. I was really taken with the performances. Especially Stephanie and Andrew. Bummer that a closed show has a much worse chance of winning anything 

[neonlightsxo]

pupscotch said: "ELP said: "I'm a little confused. The cast of Falsettos doesn't have any leads? Andrew, Christian and Stephanie would be considered "Featured" not "Leads"? Is this because it's considered an ensemble cast? Uranowitz I get as "Featured" and no doubt will be nominated as such, it's the others that I'm not understanding."

From my understanding, Christian would be in Lead, Stephanie could go either way (though more likely in Featured, as the original Trina was nominated there), and Andrew is Featured."

 

Aren't they all below the title? So it depends on how they petition. Right now they're all featured.

[neonlightsxo]

double

[VanillaIceCream2]

I think it would be a disservice to the work Stephanie J. Block is doing as Trina to put her in featured, but the leading actress category is stacked (as always), so I'm a bit worried about what's going to happen with that. Does anyone know when the ruling for Falsettos would occur?

[Sondheim_Disney1595]

how is featured actress in a musical looking?

[smidge]

Sondheim_Disney1595 said: "how is featured actress in a musical looking?

 

At this point I think Rachel Bay Jones should get it. Besides the aforementioned Stephanie J. Block, who are other contenders?

 

[BroadwayConcierge]

This is what I have so far (even though I do think Rachel Bay Jones is far and away the frontrunner):

Featured Actress: Brittain Ashford, Stephanie J. Block, Jenn Colella, Amber Gray, Rachel Bay Jones, Caroline O'Connor, Mary Beth Peil

I'm sure I'm missing a bunch.

[DayAfterDay]

Long shot for sure but I would love a nod for Jackie Hoffman

[Cfried]

BroadwayConcierge said: "even though I do think Rachel Bay Jones is far and away the frontrunner"

Agreed. Rachel Bay Jones delivers a knockout performance in DEH and I think her role is the "beefiest" for a win.