Clinton vs. Trump: The Coming Landslide

[madbrian]

The smart folks at 538 have published their first forecast, which gives Clinton an 80% chance of victory.  They'll be updating this forecast frequently between now and election day.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

[South Florida]

Petra you suck.  If all you can bring to this thread is that both candidates are disliked then you have nothing to offer.

[Petralicious]

South Florida, I am surprised someone who is constantly mocked, insulted and ridiculed would insult someone who has never said or done any of that to you.  I guess I am easy target for you. 

 

FTR the poll I showed is one of the most famous and important people who do polling, not some poll noone ever heard of or not some poll with agenda and I find it amazing that most people hate both

[Petralicious]

double bouble
 

"

 

[South Florida]

But you're stupid.

 

[Petralicious]

I am not going to get into a debate or insult war with a person who was proudly rooting for an admitted Socialist to be President of United States of America. So find someone else.

[PalJoey]

 

If there have to be idiots in this thread, I think I'd prefer yesterday's idiots to the two of you.

 

[Petralicious]

I knew Pal Shrillary would chime in. Not interested in fighting with you either

[PalJoey]

 

Back to the topic at hand.

 

Madbrian posted Nate Silver's new data-driven 2016 Presidential forecast site above 

It's must-bookmarking for election-data geeks for the rest of the election season.

 

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

 

 

 

 

[Petralicious]

Yes. Please topic at hand.  that was the Quinnipiac poll that scarily said Hilary and oompha loompa man are almost a tie.

The good thing if you look at the data that was attached is that even as  she scores as unlikeable, trump  scores far worse. And his big issue is her dishonesty. That only scored 1% Importance to voters and that is his whole campaign.  They picked the worst candidate to go against her. Thank God

[Auggie27]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/06/clinton-trump-swing-state-poll-224923

 

She's holding the lead in seven swing states, polling out today. 

[madbrian]

538 is far and away the best source for analysis of polling data. Now that they're publishing their findings, looking at any individual poll is myopic. 

[Jane2]

Polls change practically every minute so I don't pay them any mind. Especially the Quinnipiac, which is students.

[madbrian]

Numerous news agencies are reporting that Trump is soliciting contributions from foreign nationals, which is a clear violation of campaign finance laws. 

[madbrian]

Numerous news agencies are reporting that Trump is soliciting contributions from foreign nationals, which is a clear violation of campaign finance laws. 

[PalJoey]

 

538 does poll averaging, Jane. They don't take polls themselves. It's more like analysis of sports statistics.

 

[madbrian]

Over the last two presidential elections, 538 has called 99 out of 100 states correctly. 

[Jane2]

But still guys, can we really depend on polls? Don't things change right up to the very end?

[Steve C.]

This is probably another reason Trump won't release his tax returns. After promising millions and certainly, bragging about it, this article shows the promises he didn't keep. If you scroll down it even shows a kind of listing or spreadsheet of the individual charities. I guess a would thank him for donations to AmFar and smaller AIDS support groups (but he could surely afford more). I just hope the "would be Emperor" keeps losing his clothes.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-promised-millions-to-charity-we-found-less-than-10000-over-7-years/2016/06/28/cbab5d1a-37dd-11e6-8f7c-d4c723a2becb_story.html

I think his denying the Washington Post access is not exactly paying off.

 

[Steve C.]

Wow! The Hillary Clinton campaign bought ads on BroadWay World!! Way to go! I'm With Her! 

[madbrian]

Jane2 said: "But still guys, can we really depend on polls? Don't things change right up to the very end?"

Yes and yes.  Polls will change, but any individual poll needs to be put into context to determine its validity.  Polling firms use different methodologies, which tend to give them a lean (a lean is not a bias). The methodology used by the folks at 538 truly sets them apart from the talking heads on cable news, who tend to set their hair on fire with every new poll.  They look at each pollster's track record and lean, giving greater weight to some and ignoring others.  So right now, we're looking at a snapshot, which will change between now and November.  As November approaches, the analysis done at 538 will become more stable and reliable.  It's wonky stuff, but I find it compelling.  Guess I'm a wonk.

[madbrian]

Clinton and Obama have rescheduled their first joint campaign appearance, but rather than Wisconsin, they're going to North Carolina.  Nice to see the Dems on offense rather than just defending Obama's 2012 states.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/hillary-clinton-north-carolina-wisconsin-224960

[Jane2]

thanks mad brian and Joey, I get it.

[DottieD'Luscia]

For some reason I roll my eyes whenever I see Quinnipiac Poll.

[brdlwyr]

Same here. Polls do not matter - we need massive GOTV this year! 

[Liza's Headband]

And I need a massive BM today!!!!