Clinton vs. Trump: The Coming Landslide

[Steve C.]

As if anyone needed it, Washington Post has a litany of Trump's lies

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/few-stand-in-trumps-way-as-he-piles-up-the-four-pinocchio-whoppers/2016/05/07/8cf5e16a-12ff-11e6-8967-7ac733c56f12_story.html?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-main_factcheck-trump-whoppers-605pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

btw, from the news programs this morning, I know Sarah Pale-in is trying to be VP, but is she now getting her hair blown out by the Trump ladies' hair people?

The Four Pinocchio club rolls on 

[sabrelady]

Would Yankees qualify as refugees if they try to come to Canada away from PRESIDENT TRUMP?

[PalJoey]

[madbrian]

If the Clinton campaign is testing Perez and Castro as possible VP candidates, based on their recent performances on cable news, I'd go with Perez. He comes across much more relaxed and comfortable. 

[@z5]

If she's indicted who you gonna go for then? Pathetic how someone UNDER FBI INVESTIGATION and with a proven history of lies is running for president; even worse are the morons blindly following her based on gender.

[PalJoey]

 

Don't worry. She's not going to be indicted.

 

[HorseTears]

God damn Floridians, Ohioans and Pennsylvanians.  How can this many of them still be supporting Trump? Okay, tell me why these  polls are meaningless; put my mind at ease...

 

 

"DEAD HEAT: TRUMP, CLINTON TIED IN 3 SWING-STATE POLLS
The poll shows close races in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio.
By Nick Gass, Politico
05/10/16 06:00 AM EDT

Buckle up for the next six months: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are effectively tied in the swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to the results of a Quinnipiac University survey released Tuesday.

Split along lines of gender, race and age, the presumptive Republican nominee and the likely Democratic nominee appear poised for tight battles in those states, though Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders performs better against Trump than Clinton does and is also seen more favorably by voters in all three states. No presidential candidate has won an election since 1960 without winning at least two of the three states.


In Florida, Clinton leads Trump, 43 percent to 42 percent, while Sanders earned 44 percent to Trump's 42 percent. While Clinton holds a 13-point advantage among Florida women — 48 percent to 35 percent — Trump’s lead among men is equally large, at 49 percent to 36 percent. Independent Florida voters are split, 39 percent to 39 percent, while along racial lines, white voters said they would vote for the Republican candidate 52 percent to 33 percent. Among nonwhite voters, 63 percent to 20 percent said they would vote for the Democrat. Clinton’s favorability in Florida is a net negative 20 points (37 percent to 57 percent), though Trump earned the same numbers. For Sanders, 43 percent said they had a favorable opinion of him, 41 percent unfavorable and 14 percent said they did not know enough to have an opinion.

In Ohio, registered voters preferred Trump to Clinton, 43 percent to 39 percent, while Sanders edged Trump 43 percent to 41 percent. Trump leads among men in Ohio, 51 percent to 36 percent, while women prefer Clinton in the state 43 percent to 36 percent. While 49 percent to 32 percent of white voters go for the Republican candidate, a whopping 76 percent to 14 percent of nonwhite voters said they will go for the Democratic candidate. Among voters ages 18 to 34, Clinton leads 43 percent to 39 percent, while voters older than 65 preferred Trump 46 percent to 40 percent. Among independents, 40 percent said they would back Trump and 37 percent would go for Clinton.

In Pennsylvania, Clinton leads 43 percent to 42 percent, mirroring the gender and racial gaps in the other swing states. Among women, Clinton leads 51 percent to 32 percent, while Trump leads with men 54 percent to 33 percent. Clinton holds a 7-point lead among voters ages 18 to 34 (49 percent to 42 percent), while Trump commands the same level of support among voters 65 and older. White voters said they would support the Republican candidate 48 percent to 37 percent, while nonwhite voters said they would support the Democrat, 74 percent to 14 percent.

Regardless of how they plan to vote, registered voters in all three states gave Trump the edge on matters related to the economy, as well as on terrorism, though on the latter issue the two candidates are within the margin of error.

CONT. AT POLITICO.COM"

[madbrian]

I know polling this far out is meaningless, but I still find it difficult to dismiss, especially after Trump has just said he will put the credit of the federal government at risk.  Trump can't speak coherently on the economy, but the media gives him a pass.  In the absence of scrutiny, his nativist slogans resonate with some.

At this point, Warren should disregard Bernie's lingering campaign, endorse Clinton, stay off Twitter for awhile, and talk about content.  She is the Dems' best communicator, and we don't need it wasted in Trump-level tweets.  She can really speak to folks in these states, and the sooner the better.

[Kad]

Well, Florida managed to re-elect Rick Scott as governor.

[ErikJ972]

"Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders performs better against Trump than Clinton does and is also seen more favorably by voters in all three states. No presidential candidate has won an election since 1960 without winning at least two of the three states."

 

[HorseTears]

A data scientist friend was just telling me that Quinnipiac polls tend to skew Republican and are widely considered the least reliable of national pollsters, so... that's SOMEWHAT comforting.  

[Kad]

ErikJ972 said: ""Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders performs better against Trump than Clinton does and is also seen more favorably by voters in all three states. No presidential candidate has won an election since 1960 without winning at least two of the three states.""

Great. Let's get the majority of Democratic voters to go back in time and change their primary votes, then.

 

[HorseTears]

Ha!  Kad, have you seen this week's FULL FRONTAL WITH SAMANTHA BEE?  

[PalJoey]

 

The Quinnipiac poll skews toward white males, like Trump voters and like Bernie voters. Clinton's support base has more women and people of color than Quinnipiac calls.

That's why Quinnipiac is the ONLY poll  that shows white guys like Trump and Bernie leading Hillary. The NBC/WSJ poll has her up in Ohio by 6 points and the CNN/ORC poll has her up in Ohio by 7.

In Pennsylvania, NBC/WSJ has her beating Trump by 15, and three other polls have hr up by 13, 8, and 5. The only two polls that show Trump even with her are...guess? Fox and Quinnipiac.

In Florida, NBC/WSJ has her up by 8, and CNN/ORC has her up by 7. But Quinnipiac has her up by only 1.

Bernie does NOT do better against Trump.

Here's an explanation from the Washington Post:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/10/a-new-poll-shows-trump-beating-clinton-in-ohio-but-it-assumes-a-pretty-white-electorate/

 

[madbrian]

The only reason Bernie is doing so well in the national polls, besides the demographic issues the PJ raised, is that NO ONE HAS RUN A NEGATIVE AD AGAINST HIM.  The GOP would crush him with the Socialist label, and they would flesh out the tax implications of his plan that the media has previously ignored.

[theaterdrew]

Quinnipiac has been something of an outlier in estimating primary support for Clinton against Sanders as well. There are some other reasons that this polling may not portend much:

1) Clinton knows she needs to GOTV in the battleground states and is already establishing the on-the-ground resources for that. Trump continues to bloviate on TV.

2) The Dems have been stockpiling opposition research, something Repubs refused to do, and the Dems haven't even begun to bring out the skeletons in Trump's closet. I am looking forward to the myth of Trump being a great business leader being crushed with the facts about how he really made/makes his money (and his being far less than a billionaire).

3) Obama hasn't been fully unleashed to campaign FOR Clinton (rather than just against Trump). While he also lost white working class men, their percentage of the population is small enough not to matter as much because he turned out so many other groups. I'm suspecting the minority voter turn-out will reach 2008 levels, if not exceed them. The misogyny of white men in that poll result, shown by their view who has more leadership ability, is ridiculous, but Obama the great campaigner (whose popularity is increasing) should be able to reign in a good amount of that.

4) There is other polling in states like Georgia, which should be a lock for Repubs, showing Clinton being within a few percentages. It has been suggested states like North Carolina, Arizona and even Utah are in play for the Dems this year.

All that said, I wonder if poll news like this is actually a great thing, because it kicks people in the rear about how they can't take anything for granted and need.to.vote this year.

[PalJoey]

Amen.

[madbrian]

Obama's current popularity should not be underestimated.  He is currently polling in the net +5 to +10 range.  Also, I think FLOTUS and Warren should be in every swing state.  They can't put enough strong women out there this cycle.

And yes, the arsenal of oppo the Dems have amassed will be overwhelming.

[Kad]

Warren is the only politician right now who seems able and willing to actually push back against Trump with any sort of effectiveness.

[PalJoey]

And young people.

Don't forget that according to last week's poll by the Harvard Institute of Politics, which specializes in young voters, Clinton beats Trump 61 to 25 percent with voters under 30, a bigger margin than Obama had over Romney.

[brdlwyr]

What is this nonsense I hear about Tim Kaine as VP?  Seems so uninspiring!

[madbrian]

Trump is refusing to release his tax returns before the election.

Also, he has pledged that he will only nominate judges to the SCOTUS who are committed to overturning Roe v Wade.

[PalJoey]

And he was one of the people who insisted that Romney release tax returns. When Romney spoke out about Trum a few months ago, he said that Trump's tax returns would make him unelectable.

Michael Cohen in the Boston Globe explains why we shouldn't believe the polls or panic about Trump beating Hillary:

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/05/10/dear-liberals-stop-panicking-over-trump/NyypLSqb18xkfnrXxEdNWM/story.html

 

[Steve C.]

I'm sure this is going to be a manufactured and packaged fight, but I hope PJ is right. There is so much money behind Trump now, in addition to his own, I know that cable news is p!ssing themselves with antic-i-pation!

The thing that scares me most is that Trump appeals to not only the public that only sees the entertainer but also to a certain "questionable" demographic. I'm not saying he's a nazi but so, so many of his attitudes just spring out of the pages of Mein Kampf. I don't think I need to list them here but just think about it. Get rid of and expel all the unwanted, build a wall, deny religions...even more. Look at his rallies at the people they stage behind him. Almost 99% white, younger white people, women, all the people he's trying to reach out to more and more. He's already got the older white vote, the uneducated or easily swayed with one soundbite. Then if he does pay a latino or African American person there, they are interviewed or placed prominently on the stage. Yes to abortions. no to abortions; no to more taxes, yes to more taxes, no to muslims, yes to rich muslims,...why doesn't he get grilled on not releasing his tax returns? They hammer HRC if she farts.

I just can't and don't want to wake up hearing "Tomorrow Belongs To Me"! 

[PalJoey]

 

Hillary hits Donald on the tax returns.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/12/us/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-tax-returns.html?_r=0

 

 

[madbrian]

Outrageous comments about Obama and Clinton made by Trump's former butler and current historian at Mar-A-Lago.  Any chance the media will hold Trump to the same level of scrutiny as associates of other candidates?

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/05/trump-butler-anthony-senecal-facebook-kill-obama