Of the upcoming musicals in 2016 that I could see flopping, they are:
American Psycho-Because of its dark subject matter, I could see it be a very hard sell to the general public.
Bright Star-Can anyone really see this show succeeding just because it has Steve Martin's name on it?
Disaster!-I'm thinking it will probably end up being this year's It Shoulda Been You. A musical that features a cast of Broadway veterans created by well known (and liked) people in the community, but ain't gonna get that much recognition.
Nerds-While I'm excited to see North Carolina Theatre having a show sent to Broadway for the first time (yes, I live in North Carolina), I still can't imagine this show actually succeeding.