I think FUN HOME appears to be the obvious front runner for best musical. I loved the show and think it has a great shot at winning. Does anyone think there is a possibility of another musical pulling out the win? Is there a show that could surprise us?
I'd say the race is Fun Home v. American in Paris, with Something Rotten behind. Both American in Paris and Something Rotten are more typical and safer Best Musical picks, and both have had positive reception from audience and critics. But even Something Rotten's fans admit the show falters in its second act, and I've heard many express that American in Paris, for all its stunning dancing, leaves them cold.
Fun Home taps into social zeitgeist and is a more daring and artistically successful show. But it's not "fun." Or easy. And it certainly can't tour.
I think and hope Fun Home will take the crown- and Book and Score, among other prizes.
"...everyone finally shut up, and the audience could enjoy the beginning of the Anatevka Pogram in peace."
Fun Home probably still has a lead, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Urinetown/Millie scenario with Fun Home taking Direction, Book, and Score while American in Paris takes Musical.
I am a firm believer in serendipity- all the random pieces coming together in one wonderful moment, when suddenly you see what their purpose was all along.
Maybe it will be an Avenue Q situation where everyone thinks that fun home will win but then out of no where Something Rotten wins. Like how everyone thought Wicked was going to win but Avenue Q won.
I could be proven wrong this year, but I think the "road vote" theory is proving to be moot. If it was a real thing, BEAUTIFUL would have won last year. Then again, A GENTLEMAN'S GUIDE... is far more chipper and colorful than FUN HOME is.
I think, however, if the Tony Awards want to continue to...scratch that...if they want to START BEING relevant, they need to recognize shows like FUN HOME, which as Kad said, taps into the social zeitgeist and makes an impact. The fact that it's just a f*cking good show helps too. Maybe the Wing and the League are starting to realize that no one gives a sh*t about shows like MEMPHIS, which made me tired when I read the synopsis.
In any event, who cares? It's apples and oranges. Artistic competitions are sort of fun, but very silly.