What are the general opinions on who will be nominated? I've seen many of the shows, but I have a harder time distinguishing whether a set is well designed, or simply big and extravagant, and same with costumes and lighting.
The award is given for the best set design, not the biggest set.
Here's my current predictions:
Best Lighting Design of a Musical: Donald Holder-The King & I Natasha Katz-An American in Paris Ben Stanton-Fun Home Japhy Weideman-The Visit
Best Lighting Design of a Play: Paule Constable-The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time Paule Constable & David Plater-Wolf Hall Natasha Katz-Skylight Philip S. Rosenberg-The Elephant Man
Best Scenic Design of a Musical: Bob Crowley-An American in Paris Scott Pask-The Visit Michael Yeargan-The King & I David Zinn-Fun Home
Best Scenic Design of a Play: John Lee Beatty-The Heidi Chronicles Bunny Christie & Finn Ross-The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time Bob Crowley-Skylight David Rockwell-You Can't Take It With You
Best Costume Design of a Musical: William Ivey Long-On the Twentieth Century Paul Tazewell-Doctor Zhivago Catherine Zuber-Gigi Catherine Zuber-The King & I
Best Costume Design of a Play: Bob Crowley-The Audience Jane Greenwood-You Can't Take It With You Christopher Oram-Wolf Hall Clint Ramos-The Elephant Man
I notice that Something Rotten and Finding Neverland are missing from your list... I wouldn't count out SR! in any of those categories, and I wouldn't be surprised at a lighting nod for FN, either.
"Here's my current predictions: Best Lighting Design of a Play: Philip S. Rosenberg-The Elephant Man Best Scenic Design of a Play: David Rockwell-You Can't Take It With You Best Costume Design of a Play: Jane Greenwood-You Can't Take It With You Clint Ramos-The Elephant Man"
While it isn't unheard of, I will say that it isn't terribly common for closed shows to garner technical award nominations unless the technical aspects were the highlights of the show. For instance, Machinal last year was really ALL about the design rather than direction and performance. I doubt You Can't Take It With You will be remembered for its set and costumes over its performances. I think the lighting of The Elephant Man was some of the finest work this season in musicals and plays, but I don't know if it will be remembered. The shows with good word of mouth will eat a lot of spots. For instance, I'd be shocked if Hand to God weren't nominated for lighting, regardless of how deserving or undeserving it may be.
Last year, The Glass Menagerie was remembered with nominations for Lighting (win) and Set Designs, and Twelfth Night was remembered with a win for Costume Design.
Two years ago, Golden Boy was remembered with nominations in all four design categories.
I'd swap out the lighting for The King and I and The Visit for Something Rotten and Finding Neverland's lighting.
I'd swap out The Visit's scenic design with Something Rotten.
And I'd swap out The King and I's costume design with Something Rotten.
All of that said, I don't necessarily disagree with your choices at all. I wonder if voters will "get" the design for Fun Home, for example. (I also don't think the nominators will "get" the designs for The Visit in any category. And Zuber's costumes for The King and I, while lovely down to the smallest prince, are really nothing that hasn't already been done for that show. Not that there's anything wrong with that - if it ain't broke, don't fix it. But there's nothing new there. I hope they realize the brilliance of the "less-is-more" approach to the King and I's set design (the ship notwithstanding), though it helps that it is full explained in the neat little booklet you can get at Lincoln Center. (Of course, it could be argued that the mere fact that it needs to be explained at all makes it a less than magnificent design - though I loved everything about the show.)
"Last year, The Glass Menagerie was remembered with nominations for Lighting (win) and Set Designs, and Twelfth Night was remembered with a win for Costume Design. Two years ago, Golden Boy was remembered with nominations in all four design categories."
Like I said, it isn't unheard of. But again, Glass Menagerie was absolutely praised for its design elements. And Twelfth Night won the "it's a period piece, so it will be nominated and probably win" award. Costumes are the category where you most frequently see closed shows nominated because it's easy for the nominators to recall what they looked like. Lighting is not often remembered unless it's SUPER striking.
Neither Elephant Man nor You Can't Take It With You were super praised for their design elements (not that they were bad at all). Both shows were really praised for their direction and performances. Could they get nominations? Sure. I wouldn't be SHOCKED if they did. I just don't think it's too probable (especially YCTIWY).
Surprised no one has mentioned the set for This is Our Youth. What the way they set the apartment so that you could see the surrounding buildings was very creative. Not to mention the very detailed apartment itself (though there were lots of those on Broadway this season)
Once never existed as a musical before, and the minimal set was stylistically used to great effect. The King and I is just the opposite. While I wasn't alive to see the original, every subsequent revival (tours included) was lavishly appointed (not to mention the film version). People expect it to be a lavish production. This (again, save for the ship) was anything but. And I am pretty certain they wouldn't have gone to such lengths to explain why this version isn't as lavish, if they didn't think it "necessary."
Again, that said, I think it was excellently done in all aspects. I love how the emptiness of the stage, with broader strokes in terms of lighting and set pieces, created a feeling of the enormity of the King's power and the initial (and visually literal) enormous distance between Anna and the King. And I loved how, as they grew closer as friends and in ideals, the scenes had them closer and closer together. The perfect union of director and designer. I'd love to think that the nominators, "professionals" all, will get that, and could without a published explanation.
Best part is, if it is nominated, people will grouse over something more lavish being ignored. And if it were to win, it would be moments before someone on here will be complaining about how "disappointed" they were with the physical production (they may have already), along the lines of, "How could this even be nominated/ even win... there was nothing on the stage to look at!"
I don't think This is Our Youth will be remembered at all when it comes to the Tony nominations. It got a lukewarm reception and close back in January.
I am a firm believer in serendipity- all the random pieces coming together in one wonderful moment, when suddenly you see what their purpose was all along.
I am inclined to think Jeffrey's nominations are very close for the musicals. I do question whether Something Rotten will slip in there (and I thought there were five nominees?). I think Fun Home and The King and I are highly likely to get nominated and do think The Visit will be recognized as well.
I don't know how lavish the set design for Wolf Hall is but I think that could take Heidi Chronicles' slot.
I've seen most of the shows this year, and I don't think Heidi Chronicles will be nominated for set. Airline Highway or Hand to God is more likely for scenic design of a play.