Hit/Flop Shows

[Inigomontoya]

Posted: 3/1/15 at 4:02pm

Hi,
I'm suppose to give a lecture about musical theater, and I want to talk about how hard it is to predict if a show would be a hit or a flop, and I want to do it in a sort of interactive way, where I let the audience to be "Investors", and I provide them facts about a show(without saying it's name) and ask them would they invest money in it or not.
In order to do so I would love if you could help me think of shows that you would think that would succeed but actually flopped financially, and shows the succeed to bring big bucks although you never would guess it.
extra points to people who can help me think of illusive titles, like talking about Yeston's Phantom vaguely for example.

Sorry for the long post,
Hope I was clear, sorry it's just hard for me to write in English

[Elfuhbuh]

Posted: 3/1/15 at 4:11pm

One example I can think of is Dance of the Vampires, which given the success of the Vienna production was expected to do well here, as well. The Broadway production's failure had largely to do with excessive changes to the script and horrible word-of-mouth, but the original show has been met with acclaim pretty much everywhere else it has been performed.

[Mr Roxy]

Posted: 3/1/15 at 4:13pm

One example is The Last Ship. Sting's music should have insured this would be a hit.It closed after less than 3 months

More examples

Peter Allen Legs Diamond
Elton John Lestat

[After Eight]

Posted: 3/1/15 at 4:17pm

Unexpected hit: The Fantasticks

Unexpected flops: Irving Berlin's Mr. President; Bernstein and Lerner's 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue

[Keiichi2]

Posted: 3/1/15 at 4:19pm

Young Frankenstein seemed like a sure thing after Mel Brooks became a Broadway darling with The Producers.

Needless to say, lightning did not strike twice. The show was met with mixed to disappointing word of mouth and reviews, and it barely ran just over a year.

[Inigomontoya]

Posted: 3/1/15 at 4:28pm

Thanks, this is really helpful!
Is the original version of West side story considered a financial hit?

[Mr Roxy]

Posted: 3/1/15 at 4:30pm

I believe it was.

[Fantod]

Posted: 3/1/15 at 4:52pm

A Chorus Line and Oklahoma! Were also unexpected, as was Wicked.

The Little Mermaid was an unexpected flop.

[GavestonPS]

Posted: 3/1/15 at 6:14pm

That isn't true, Fantod. A CHORUS LINE was a must-have-ticket at the Public and was the most anticipated show of the Broadway season in which it opened. (The only possible exception would have been CHICAGO, because of Fosse and the great cast, but I don't remember people anticipating it quite so eagerly.)

And the myth of OKLAHOMA! as unexpected hit has been greatly exaggerated, as more recent accounts suggest. ONE guy supposedly telegraphed "No jokes, no legs, no chance!" after the first tryout in New Haven and that has been inflated into the Myth of the Unlikely Hit.

But despite Hammerstein's flops of the late 1930s, Rodgers was in his prime and the Theatre Guild itself was a force to be reckoned with. And Hammerstein was still the author of SHOW BOAT and the more successful operettas of the 1920s and early 30s.

The myth of low expectations grew incrementally as OK! became the biggest hit of all time.

***

P.S. to the OP: any book on Broadway flops will give you numerous examples of supposedly "flop-proof" shows as well as unlikely successes.

Updated On: 3/1/15 at 06:14 PM

[ggersten]

Posted: 3/1/15 at 6:24pm

You have to start out by reminding the group that a "hit" is simply one that made money. It has nothing to do with artistic qualities.
So, Sweeney Todd flopped - which many may find surprising. Jeckyl & Hyde flopped despite running for several years. There were high hopes for A Catered Affair - given the creatives, but it flopped.

Cats may be considered a hit against all odds (A musical based on a book of poems with basically no story) Probably Les Miz (Yeah, let's take a 1500 page novel that spans decades, have two French composers - translate it to English - and have little or no dialog - and one that the critics didn't like too much). The Lion King - I mean really? how is that going to work on stage?
You could up both versions of the Wild Party - using the creatives for comparison - as to which they should invest in.

[gleek4114]

Posted: 3/1/15 at 6:31pm

Just this last season Bullets Over Broadway and Rocky were expected to be the hits of the season, while many were surprised that Gentleman's Guide lasted AND took home the Tony.

[Mr Roxy]

Posted: 3/1/15 at 6:35pm

Exactly

[FindingNamo]

Posted: 3/1/15 at 6:46pm

What about Wicked v The Baker's Wife?

[A1st]

Posted: 3/1/15 at 6:55pm

Spiderman was expected to be a hit and it flopped. Not sure what people expected of Aladdin and Beautiful, but they are now both big hits.

[Elfuhbuh]

Posted: 3/1/15 at 8:37pm

Was anyone really expecting Spider-Man to be a hit, though? I recall everyone, even the general non-theatre public, expecting Spidey to crash and burn.

[Mr Roxy]

Posted: 3/1/15 at 8:39pm

There is no way ,given its humongous production costs , it could ever have been expected to turn a profit. The previously announced Vegas version is dead in the water.

[bwayboy22]

Posted: 3/1/15 at 8:51pm

What about Hairspray? A 1980s cult film turned into a musical that opened in the summer? Did people think it was going to be as big a hit as it was?

And what about Honeymoon in Vegas? Great out of town tryout reviews, written by a Tony Award winning composer. You'd think that would be a huge success, but it's barely making- if even -it's nut!

[Pootie2]

Posted: 3/1/15 at 8:53pm

OP, just remember that this forum doesn't represent the bulk of people that producers are concerned about: the tourists who bought 70% of tickets last year and are much more likely to actually pay full-price. That's the big mystery variable underlying the 20-25% success rate.

The Broadway League released demographic stats for last season that indicated buzz is no longer as important as personal recommendation, maybe due to social media connections (who knows?); reviews clearly don't have that much pull, and advertising persuasion has fallen to 25%.

Gentleman's Guide is a very interesting case. It had mediocre starting months, and I don't know how the buzz was, but the producers had set aside money to last until the Tonys, and then it won. THEN it became a hit. (I think its grosses started going up upon nomination announcements, not sure.) Clearly, winning the major Tony awards has noticeable effect on netting these high-paying tourists.

Updated On: 3/1/15 at 08:53 PM

[Mr Roxy]

Posted: 3/1/15 at 8:53pm

The crappy weather did not help it.

Updated On: 3/1/15 at 08:53 PM

[A1st]

Posted: 3/1/15 at 9:09pm

What about Book of Mormon? Had no tryout and was written by the writers of south park?

[Mr Roxy]

Posted: 3/1/15 at 9:17pm

Beats the hell out of me as to why it is so popular. My wife and I hated every minute of it as did those around us that day.

Updated On: 3/1/15 at 09:17 PM

[gleek4114]

Posted: 3/1/15 at 9:18pm

Some others:

- Avenue Q had great reviews off broadway but when it opened (in summer), it was generally unknown to the general public. It lasted almost a year until it won the grudge match that is the 2003 - 2004 Tony's (famously beating Wicked).

- Leap of Faith had a great team writing it and a fantastic cast,but somehow crashed and burned.

- Breakfast at Tiffany's had a great cast and was highly anticipated until tryouts began. Bad reviews and word of mouth caused it to close before it reached the city (basically the same situation as the Bakers Wife).

[Fantod]

Posted: 3/1/15 at 9:23pm

GavestonPS, I was aware of both of those situations, but I was referring to their gestations. A Chorus Line was created by a group of realitive unknowns in a brand new fashion, though I suppose you are more right than I am.

Oklahoma! However, was based on a flop play that also happened to be terrible. Rodgers was in his prime, but Hammerstein was considered a has-been. It featured a cast of relative unknowns and the theatre guild was actually going bankrupt around that time. This is just what I know off of the top of my head, so calm down Jordan Catalano,

[Keiichi2]

Posted: 3/1/15 at 9:51pm

A1st: I seem to remember Book of Mormon getting a lot of early hype, though. Early readings and reports from those readings were extremely enthusiastic. I seem to remember people coming from the readings, saying it was guaranteed to win the Tony for Best Musical.

Then the show opened, and just exploded. But long before it did, I seem to remember reading early reports that it was a smash in the making, and it persuaded me to get a ticket to the show early.

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 3/1/15 at 10:29pm

Would holiday musical be considered flops? How could they earn back all that money in 12 weeks