What will be the long-running hits of this season?

Jay94
Stand-by
joined:4/10/11
And by long-running I mean 2+ year run (800+ performances).

Obviously Aladdin will run for years to come. I could see Gentleman's Guide running until the end of the year in what will be a short run for a Best Musical winner (presuming it wins). Beautiful could run for a while. Jukebox musicals do well and a Best Musical win would almost ensure a 1000+ performance run. And After Midnight could be a small little hit that runs and runs.

Updated On: 5/12/14 at 11:12 AM
JoseLee_
Understudy
joined:5/24/13
Even if Gentleman's Guide wins I don't think it will last that long, but I don't know cause I said the same for Once. I hope Beautiful gets a long run.
Mister Matt
Broadway Legend
joined:5/17/03
Beautiful and Aladdin. I doubt If/Then will hang on long once Idina leaves. Les Miserables shows potential for sticking around a while, especially if they start stunt casting replacements. After Midnight will need some major names to pick up sales, but I would imagine the salaries for big names eat up a lot of the show's budget.
"What can you expect from a bunch of seitan worshippers?" - Reginald Tresilian
tazber
Broadway Legend
joined:5/10/05
I agree with everything Mister Matt said.

Rocky may surprise with a nice run as I understand it's drawing huge bridge and tunnel crowds plus it appeals to a demographic of men who wouldn't normally be interested in seeing a Broadway musical (similar to Rock of Ages which defied everyone's expectations).
....but the world goes 'round
CurtainPullDowner
Broadway Legend
joined:11/4/04
ROCKY is not drawing "huge" anything. You can get a ticket on tdf right now.

I think Aladdin is the only show that will run a few years of this year's crop, but even that show may not be a LION KING or BEAUTY AND THE BEAST type hit.
theaterfan862
Featured Actor
joined:5/10/10
Aladdin, Les Miserables, and Cabaret will go on for a few years with Beautiful lasting a year.
dreaming
Broadway Legend
joined:4/24/09
Beautiful, Les Miserables and Aladdin with Cabaret following closely behind.
Pumpkin
Chorus Member
joined:12/3/13
Aladdin.

I don't know how Beautiful will fare after Jessie leaves because she carries the show. However, it is a tourist'a dream which could save it.

I hope Cabaret extends and continues to run even with a new cast.

GGLAM should be the answer (especially if it wins), but $35 tickets have been available for months already and the nominations did not change that.

Les Mis will probably run for 2-3 years not matter what.
givesmevoice
Broadway Legend
joined:12/2/07
I think that Gentleman's Guide will at least run until the end of the year. Its producers took a big gamble keeping it open through the [very rough] winter, rightly waiting for a payoff with nominations at the end of the season. I think business has been picking up and, if it wins, I can't imagine the producers bailing on it that quickly.
When I see the phrase "the ____ estate", I imagine a vast mansion in the country full of monocled men and high-collared women receiving letters about productions across the country and doing spit-takes at whatever they contain. -Kad
mschwager
Stand-by
joined:11/21/11
^the $35 seats are in the balcony and is an awful view for this show. You lose almost all of the physical humor
ethan231h
Broadway Star
joined:5/5/11
it's kind of off topic but it really depend on the producer I read an article that said that the Weissler's will probably keep Pippin and Chicago on for many many more years because #1 it recouped and even if they need to put in celebrities for a short amount of time like what they do with Chicago they still will be making good money. So with If/Then i think it really depend on the Star!
Dessie
Understudy
joined:7/4/12
Aladdin 4 years
Les Mis 3
If Then 1.5
Bullets 1.5
Rocky, After Midnight, Gentlemans close in January
Up In One
Featured Actor
joined:5/27/04
Its interesting that Rocky is selling a lot of tickets just not at the right price points and it like Cinderella has a ton more tickets to sell than most shows to fill their cavernous houses. Far more people are buying tickets to Rocky than Gentleman's Guide and After Midnight. The summer and the tourists will tell the tale for Rocky's longevity - there was a glimmer of it Easter/Spring break week when Rocky did over a million
BobNC
Stand-by
joined:6/30/13
Aladdin and a Beautiful will run for years.
Updated On: 5/12/14 at 08:43 PM
Jay94
Stand-by
joined:4/10/11
Any predictions for shows from other seasons? Matilda, Kinky Boots, Motown, Cinderella, Once, Newsies, Pippin?
D2
Broadway Legend
joined:12/3/06
HELLO, DOLLY! is doing well now, but once Channing leaves it will close. Same with FUNNY GIRL. Maybe a year, year and a half. No more, though.

- from the BWW archives, May 13, 1964

Cheyenne Jackson tickled me. AFTER ordering SoMMS a drink but NOT tickling him, and hanging out with Girly in his dressing room (where he DIDN'T tickle her) but BEFORE we got married. To others. And then he tweeted Boobs. He also tweeted he's good friends with some chick on "The Voice" who just happens to be good friends with Tink's ex. And I'm still married. Oh, and this just in: "Pettiness, spite, malice ....Such ugly emotions... So sad." - After Eight, talking about MEEEEEEEE!!! I'm so honored! :-)
Updated On: 5/13/14 at 08:36 AM
tazber
Broadway Legend
joined:5/10/05
Ah, the good old days. Back when After Eight was only in his 60s.
....but the world goes 'round
WhizzerMarvin TrinaJasonMendel
Broadway Legend
joined:5/26/05
I think Beautiful is going to run for a long time. No one is seeing it because of Jessie Mueller- her name isn't even on any of the posters/billboards. All anyone needs to see is "Beautiful: The Carole King Musical" and the tickets are sold. It's like John Lloyd Young in Jersey Boys. It's not about the actor, it's about the show.
Marie: Don't be in such a hurry about that pretty little chippy in Frisco. Tony: Eh, she's a no chip!
neonlightsxo
Broadway Star
joined:7/29/08
I agree with Whizzer. Beautiful is going to run for awhile.
neonlightsxo
Broadway Star
joined:7/29/08
Double post
Updated On: 5/13/14 at 09:23 AM
neonlightsxo
Broadway Star
joined:7/29/08
Double post
Updated On: 5/13/14 at 09:23 AM
haterobics
Broadway Legend
joined:3/29/14
"GGLAM should be the answer (especially if it wins), but $35 tickets have been available for months already and the nominations did not change that."

Their grosses have gone up since the nominations, so hopefully that continues. Whether discounted balcony/rear mezz tickets are available don't indicate the health of the show. It was unlikely they would turn it into a SRO hit, but if more people are buying good orchestra seats, etc., that will play a bigger role than discounted less-prime seats still being available.
formerly oasisjeff on here.
theatregeek6
Leading Actor
joined:6/19/13
Not that it can't change but Rocky just extended through March of 2015. Happy for the cast and crew