Alex Timbers concept for Rocky its second act and the magnificent staging of the final fight certainly made up the most unique staging we saw this year. Darko Tresnjak has to take credit for some of the cleverness of Gentleman's Guide - although I thought last year's Edwin Drood did the same with more flair. Casey Nicholaw certainly knows how to stage a pageant but might be better recognized for choreography here - then again After Midnight should have the dance awards sewn up. Marc Bruni's work for Beautiful should be recognized because in my opinion Beautiful is the show that came closest to being wholly satisfying among a field of very uneven contenders.
After those four I lose interest because the directors of Bullets, If/Then, Violet and Bridges in my opinion are equally to blame for their show's not hitting their bulls eye.
That would leave Warren Carlyle's After Midnight which was better choreographed than staged - it had the feel of a concert or variety show with some pacing issues. Michael Mayer's Hedwig - which I haven't seen on Broadway yet - saw it off Bway and wouldn't think its direction would be singled out. And then Les Miz & Cabaret which they are saying will not qualify.
Because of the overall critical success of After Midnight I would put Warren Carlyle in the fifth position. I see Rocky's Timbers winning best director.
Bullets has its fans, so Stroman could get a nom. We'll have to wait and see about Mayer's reviews for Hedwig. I have hard time believing that Timbers will win for Rocky given its general reception. This year is really up for grabs in so many categories, but I think Gentleman's Guide will win best musical, in which case I would pick Tresnjak to win best director.