Who can really say how it will all shake out at this point? Right now, there are 12 new musicals with 2 other possible transfers making it one of the most ridiculously competitive seasons in a long time.
There are a ridiculous amount of shows this year. Too many in fact. I'm hoping that either If/Then or The Bridges of Madison County wins, and as long as Les Miz doesn't win for revival I'm good. Is Alan Cummings eligible to win a Tony again even though he's done the exact same role before? I could also see Bullets Over Broadway, Big Fish, Gentleman's Guide, and Beautiful being nominated, with a possible upset from First Date, Aladdin, Rocky, or Hedwig (would that be a revival?) Glass Menagerie has revival of a play cornered for sure, though.
Anything regarding shows stated by this account is an attempt to convey opinion and not fact.
While Mary Bridget Davis gives an terrific performance, she doesn't really have enough meaty material to work with to earn a tony. Had the show been more of a soul bearing retrospective into joplins life and less of a concert it would be a completely different story.
On another note, Joplin, as well as After Midnight and Beautiful are already at a disadvantage in tony races in the sense that voters look at them as easy money makes for producers and not shows that take a risk or do what they are doing better than we have seen it before. People are tired of producers trying to play to baby boomers and tourists in order to make a quick buck.
If/Then for best musical. LaChanze (?--spelling) for best featured actress (in a musical). Best Book should be If/Then as well. I saw it on 12/4, and suspect they've made changes -- it's not particularly confusing now, although I'd like to have seen Elizabeth wear a different scarf or hat or something to signify that she's Liz now or Beth now. The score was incredible -- especially "What the F---" (don't know how they'll sing that one for the Tony award broadcast, :-})and the song where the ensemble sings about fear, regret, and sadness in one searing number. (I don't want to say more about that scene because it would be a spoiler). I've been WAAAAYYY wrong about nominations and wins before -- when I saw "Glory," I said it would win the Oscar for best picture, and I don't think it was nominated. Nonetheless, I'm going out on a limb at this early stage and saying that If/Then will get at least a nomination for a Tony, and Idina Menzel for best female lead in a musical.
If/Then will be the big winner (6-8 wins), including Best Musical, Lead Actress for Idina, Best Book & Best Original Score. Bullets Over Broadway will get 3-4 wins.
I was not a big fan of Beautiful, honestly. But I do think it will be nominated for best musical. I don't think it SHOULD be, but I think it will. Almost everyone I know who has seen it has loved and it seems to be very popular.
Since Big Fish & First Date both recently closed, it's hard to tell if they'll really end up being contenders at all, obviously there's still some shows that yet to open, like Bullets or Rocky, where we should at least see what the response is like first before officially taking them into consideration. So in any case, here are my predictions as of now...
Best Musical: Aladdin Beautiful The Bridges of Madison County If/Then
Best Play: All the Way-Robert Schenkkan Mothers & Sons-Terrence McNally Realistic Joneses-Will Eno The Velocity of Autumn-Eric Coble
Best Revival of a Musical: Cabaret Hedwig & the Angry Inch Les Miserables Violet
Best Revival of a Play: The Glass Menagerie Of Mice & Men A Raisin in the Sun Twelfth Night
Best Lead Actor in a Musical: Neil Patrick Harris-Hedwig & the Angry Inch Adam Jacobs-Aladdin Ramin Karimloo-Les Miserables Jefferson Mays-A Gentleman's Guide to Love & Murder Steven Pasquale-The Bridges of Madison County
Best Lead Actress in a Musical: Mary Bridget Davis-A Night With Janis Joplin Sutton Foster-Violet Idina Menzel-If/Then Jessie Mueller-Beautiful Keli O'Hara-The Bridges of Madison County
Best Lead Actor in a Play: Sebastian Arcelus-A Time to Kill Bryan Cranston-All the Way Michael C. Hall-Realistic Joneses Zachary Quinto-The Glass Menagerie Mark Rylance-Twelfth Night
Best Lead Actress in a Play: Toni Collette-Realistic Joneses Tyne Daly-Mothers & Sons Cherry Jones-The Glass Menagerie Estelle Parsons-The Velocity of Autumn Rachel Weisz-Betrayal
Best Featured Actor in a Musical: Danny Burstein-Cabaret Hunter Foster-The Bridges of Madison County James Monroe Iglehart-Aladdin Anthony Rapp-If/Then Will Swenson-Les Miserables
Best Featured Actress in a Musical: Nikki M. James-Les Miserables LaChanze-If/Then Anika Larsen-Beautiful Caissie Levy-Les Miserables Karen Ziemba-Bullets Over Broadway
Best Featured Actor in a Play: Brian Cross-The Snow Geese Stephen Fry-Twelfth Night Michael McKean-All the Way Bobby Steggert-Mothers & Sons Stephen Tyrone Williams-A Rasin in the Sun
Best Featured Actress in a Play: Suzanne Bertish-Machinal Victoria Clark-The Snow Geese Celia Keenan-Bolger-The Glass Menagerie Sophie Okonedo-A Rasin in the Sun Marisa Tomei-Realistic Joneses
Best Director of a Musical: Laurence Connor & James Powell-Les Miserables Michael Greif-If/Then Casey Nicholaw-Aladdin Bartlett Sher-The Bridges of Madison County
Best Director of a Play: Tim Carroll-Twelfth Night Sam Gold-Realistic Joneses Bill Rauch-All the Way John Tiffany-The Glass Menagerie
Best Original Score: The Bridges of Madison County-Music & Lyrics By Jason Robert Brown A Gentleman's Guide to Love & Murder-Music By Steven Lutvak, Lyrics By Robert L. Freedman & Steven Lutvak If/Then-Music By Tom Kitt, Lyrics By Brian Yorky Rocky the Musical-Music By Stephen Flaherty, Lyrics By Lynn Ahrens
Best Book of a Musical: Beautiful-Douglas McGrath The Bridges of Madison County-Marsha Norman A Gentleman's Guide to Love & Murder-Robert L. Freedman If/Then-Brian Yorky
Best Choreography: Spencer Liff-Hedwig & the Angry Inch Casey Nicholaw-Aladdin Josh Prince-Beautiful Susan Stroman-Bullets Over Broadway
I think you are showing Aladdin a little too much love. It's a really tough year for musicals, and based on its out of town reviews...I think we might see it get very little Tony love
If you go to the Aladdin Reviews message board, you'll see that the creative team have been and still are improving the show. The most that I am rooting for Aladdin to get at the Tonys is at least a Featured Actor nomination for James Monroe Iglehart as Genie, I've heard clips of him in the role on YouTube and he is absolutely a scene stealer!
I don't think you're showing After Midnight or A Gentleman's Guide anywhere near enough love. Both were critical darlings and it's obviously too early to tell but I'd say both have a far greater shot at scoring best musical nominations than Aladdin.
Scratch and claw for every day you're worth!
Make them drag you screaming from life, keep dreaming
You'll live forever here on earth.
I'm not so sure about After Midnight getting a nomination for Best Musical because it's really a musical revue, sure Ain't Misbehavin' won, but there was still controversy over Contact winning Best Musical in 2000. But who knows, maybe it will have a chance, we'll just have to wait & see the response of the other shows opening this spring.
Any prediction that doesn't include Jefferson Mays as the likely winner (let alone a nominee!) for Gentleman's Guide... can be immediately discounted as not having a clue.
Alright, so here's an updated predictions list, I have and will continue to make revisions once we all hear the response of whichever new production opens:
Best Musical: After Midnight Beautiful The Bridges of Madison County If/Then
Best Play: All the Way-Robert Schenkkan Mothers & Sons-Terrence McNally Realistic Joneses-Will Eno The Velocity of Autumn-Eric Coble
Best Revival of a Musical: Cabaret Hedwig & the Angry Inch Les Miserables Violet
Best Revival of a Play: The Glass Menagerie Of Mice & Men A Raisin in the Sun Twelfth Night
Best Lead Actor in a Musical: Norbert Leo Butz-Big Fish Neil Patrick Harris-Hedwig & the Angry Inch Ramin Karimloo-Les Miserables Jefferson Mays-A Gentleman's Guide to Love & Murder Steven Pasquale-The Bridges of Madison County
Best Lead Actress in a Musical: Mary Bridget Davis-A Night With Janis Joplin Sutton Foster-Violet Idina Menzel-If/Then Jessie Mueller-Beautiful Keli O'Hara-The Bridges of Madison County
Best Lead Actor in a Play: Bryan Cranston-All the Way Michael C. Hall-Realistic Joneses Zachary Quinto-The Glass Menagerie Mark Rylance-Twelfth Night Denzel Washington-A Rasin in the Sun
Best Lead Actress in a Play: Toni Collette-Realistic Joneses Tyne Daly-Mothers & Sons Cherry Jones-The Glass Menagerie Estelle Parsons-The Velocity of Autumn Rachel Weisz-Betrayal
Best Featured Actor in a Musical: Danny Burstein-Cabaret Hunter Foster-The Bridges of Madison County James Monroe Iglehart-Aladdin Anthony Rapp-If/Then Will Swenson-Les Miserables
Best Featured Actress in a Musical: Nikki M. James-Les Miserables LaChanze-If/Then Anika Larsen-Beautiful Caissie Levy-Les Miserables Karen Ziemba-Bullets Over Broadway
Best Featured Actor in a Play: Brian Cross-The Snow Geese Stephen Fry-Twelfth Night Michael McKean-All the Way Bobby Steggert-Mothers & Sons Stephen Tyrone Williams-A Rasin in the Sun
Best Featured Actress in a Play: Suzanne Bertish-Machinal Victoria Clark-The Snow Geese Celia Keenan-Bolger-The Glass Menagerie Sophie Okonedo-A Rasin in the Sun Marisa Tomei-Realistic Joneses
Best Director of a Musical: Warren Carlyle-After Midnight Laurence Connor & James Powell-Les Miserables Michael Greif-If/Then Bartlett Sher-The Bridges of Madison County
Best Director of a Play: Tim Carroll-Twelfth Night Sam Gold-Realistic Joneses Bill Rauch-All the Way John Tiffany-The Glass Menagerie
Best Original Score: The Bridges of Madison County-Music & Lyrics By Jason Robert Brown A Gentleman's Guide to Love & Murder-Music By Steven Lutvak, Lyrics By Robert L. Freedman & Steven Lutvak If/Then-Music By Tom Kitt, Lyrics By Brian Yorky Rocky-Music By Stephen Flaherty, Lyrics By Lynn Ahrens
Best Book of a Musical: Beautiful-Douglas McGrath The Bridges of Madison County-Marsha Norman A Gentleman's Guide to Love & Murder-Robert L. Freedman If/Then-Brian Yorky
Best Choreography: Warren Carlyle-After Midnight Spencer Liff-Hedwig & the Angry Inch Casey Nicholaw-Aladdin Josh Prince-Beautiful
Best Orchestrations: Jason Robert Brown-The Bridges of Madison County Christopher Jahnke & Stephen Metcalfe-Les Miserables Steve Sidwell-Beautiful Michael Starobin-If/Then
Updated On: 1/11/14 at 12:36 PM
Even sight unseen, anyone not predicting a nomination for Woody Allen for Book of a Musical is making a huge assumption about how *unsuccessful* they think BULLETS will be.
When you're Woody Allen, writing your first musical, you're getting a nomination until proven otherwise. Them's my two cents.
Otherwise, it's far too early for anything. Talk to me in April.
Words don't deserve that kind of malarkey. They're innocent, neutral, precise, standing for this, describing that, meaning the other, so if you look after them you can build bridges across incomprehension and chaos. But when they get their corners knocked off, they're no good anymore…I don't think writers are sacred, but words are. They deserve respect. If you get the right ones in the right order, you can nudge the world a little.