Nate Silver's early take on convention impact

madbrian
Broadway Legend
joined:6/1/06
Nate Silver runs the fivethirtyeight.com blog, and he's one of the top statisticians around. The link below is dorky and wonky, but it makes a case for Obama getting a very substantial convention bounce.
538
"It does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are 20 gods or no god. It neither picks my pocket, nor breaks my leg." -- Thomas Jefferson
ErikJ972
Broadway Legend
joined:5/26/03
Romney's last hope is the barrage of negative ads that are just starting to roll out.
FindingNamo
Broadway Legend
joined:7/22/03
I love Nate Silver.

I also love that Romney has been reduced to fretting that Obama wants to take "God" off of coins. Seriously. Just two days after Ann repeating that this election was about the economy and not about gay marriage or reproductive freedom.

ETA Oh, wait. I just got it. Coins are part of the economy.
Can anyone tell me how the line has been?
Updated On: 9/9/12 at 12:42 PM
romantico
Broadway Legend
joined:3/6/05
Thank You Mitt Romney! Keep talking and doing what you have been doing!



'There are three sides to every story. My side, your side, and the truth. And no one is lying. Memories shared serve each one differently' -Robert Evans-
romantico
Broadway Legend
joined:3/6/05
Curious to see how things look with Congress.

Democrats Now Favored to Retain Senate

September 18, 2012

Nate Silver's latest forecast has the odds of Democrats retining control of the U.S. Senate after November's election --either by having at least 50 seats and the presidency, or 51 without it -- have increased in recent weeks to a 70% chance.

'The trend toward Democrats is a relatively recent one. Part of the shift may reflect the bounce President Obama received from the Democratic convention.... But our analysis also suggests that the Democratic advantage has probably been building over the past few weeks, and may not have any one root cause. Instead, Republicans risk death by a thousand cuts, with a gradual deterioration in their standing in several important races, and their inability to field optimal candidates in others.'

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/09/18/democrats_now_favored_to_retain_senate.html

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/18/fivethirtyeight-forecast-g-o-p-senate-hopes-slipping/
'There are three sides to every story. My side, your side, and the truth. And no one is lying. Memories shared serve each one differently' -Robert Evans-