Tony Predictions - Should win/will win

[jdrye222]

Posted: 5/1/12 at 11:08pm

OK. I know it's just this morning, but I'm making my predictions. I have seen every production this year, except "Lysistrata Jones" and "Leap Of Faith" ... so if you really think that would make a difference in any predictions, ignore me, but I don't think I'm missing anything.

PLAY -
Should win: OTHER DESERT CITIES
Will win: OTHER DESERT CITIES (I don't think CLYBOURNE PARK will get enough of a consensus)

MUSICAL -
Should win: ONCE
Will win: ONCE (I do think it'll edge NEWSIES, but it'll be close)

REVIVAL - Play -
Should win: THE BEST MAN
Will win: DEATH OF A SALESMAN

REVIVAL - Musical -
Should win: PORGY AND BESS
Will win: PORGY AND BESS (yes, I think the overall support of its production will grow throughout the next month and it will edge out the lackluster production of FOLLIES)

BOOK -
Should win: ONCE
Will win: ONCE

SCORE -
Should win: (nothing)
Will win: NEWSIES (this reminds me of the year MEMPHIS won, for being the least bad - it would be amazing to see one of the plays win, but it'll never happen)

LEADING ACTOR IN A PLAY -
Should win: James Corden, ONE MAN TWO GUVNORS
Will win: James Corden, ONE MAN TWO GUVNORS

LEADING ACTRESS IN A PLAY -
Should win: Stockard Channing, OTHER DESERT CITIES
Will win: Linda Lavin, THE LYONS

LEADING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL -
Should win: Norm Lewis, PORGY AND BESS (he has the most demanding role emotionally and physically, and he has been perfect each of the three times I've seen this production)
Will win: Steve Kazee, ONCE (no complaints about this though, he is fantastic in this role)

LEADING ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL -
Should win: Audra McDonald, PORGY AND BESS
Will win: Audra McDonald, PORGY AND BESS (As many Jan Maxwell fans as there are... she was fine, but nothing compared to the powerhouse that is at the Richard Rodgers)

FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY -
Should win: Andrew Garfield, DEATH OF A SALESMAN
Will win: Christian Borle, PETER AND THE STARCATCHER (people love schticky scenery chewing)

FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY -
Should win: Judith Light, OTHER DESERT CITIES
Will win: Judith Light, OTHER DESERT CITIES (no contest, this is a lock, and I adore her, so am incredibly thrilled)

FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL -
Should win: Phillip Boykin, PORGY AND BESS (perfection, in a very nuanced performance)
Will win: Michael McGrath, NICE WORK IF YOU CAN GET IT (again, schticky crowd-pleaser gets the prize)

FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL -
Should win: Judy Kaye, NICE WORK IF YOU CAN GET IT
Will win: Judy Kaye, NICE WORK IF YOU CAN GET IT (I still don't understand the Davis and Houdyshell nominations AT ALL)

SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY -
Should win: Mark Thompson, ONE MAN TWO GUVNORS
Will win: Donyale Werle, PETER AND THE STARCATCHER

SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL -
Should win: Rob Howell and Jon Driscoll, GHOST
Will win: Bob Crowley, ONCE

COSTUME DESIGN OF A PLAY -
Should win: Paloma Young, PETER AND THE STARCATCHER
Will win: Paloma Young, PETER AND THE STARCATCHER

COSTUME DESIGN OF A MUSICAL -
Should win: Eiko Ishioka, SPIDERMAN TURN OFF THE DARK
Will win: Eiko Ishioka, SPIDERMAN TURN OFF THE DARK

LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY -
Should win: Jeff Croiter, PETER AND THE STARCATCHER
Will win: Brian MacDevitt, DEATH OF A SALESMAN

LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL -
Should win: Natasha Katz, ONCE
Will win: Christopher Akerlind, PORGY AND BESS (if for nothing else than making the ugliest set to ever appear on Broadway seem not so bad)

SOUND DESIGN OF A PLAY -
Should win: Paul Arditti, ONE MAN TWO GUVNORS
Will win: Paul Arditti, ONE MAN TWO GUVNORS

SOUND DESIGN OF A MUSICAL -
Should win: Clive Goodwin, ONCE
Will win: Clive Goodwin, ONCE

CHOREOGRAPHY -
Should win: Steven Hoggett, ONCE
Will win: Christopher Gattelli, NEWSIES

DIRECTION OF A PLAY -
Should win: Nicholas Hytner, ONE MAN TWO GUVNORS
Will win: Roger Rees and Alex Timbers, PETER AND THE STARCATCHER

DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL -
Should win: John Tiffany, ONCE
Will win: John Tiffany, ONCE (no contest - the most beautifully directed musical I've seen since SCOTTSBORO BOYS)

ORCHESTRATIONS -
Should win: Martin Lowe, ONCE
Will win: Martin Lowe, ONCE

[jdrye222]

Posted: 5/3/12 at 1:02am

surprised no one has jumped down my throat by now about something.... lol

[bdn223]

Posted: 5/3/12 at 1:38am

Once will not win Book, that is a race between Newsies and LJ sadly,
Harvy honestly deserves it for being able to salvage the horrible script from the film, in the case of once, there really isn't a book, although it is not a "opera" and sung throughout, their is very little spoken dialog other than, "I am czech...I am always serious" as well has the show has little to no plot, other than boy meets girl, they play music, they break up....


Also you cannot deny the choreography of Newsies, it is the star of the show...I will bet Newsies and Once will split the Directing toward Once and Choreography toward Newsies
Updated On: 5/3/12 at 01:38 AM

[bwayphreak234]

Posted: 5/3/12 at 1:43am

The fact that Once is predicted (not just by you, but by many others as well) to win for set and lighting designs really saddens me. Set design should go to George Tsypin for Spider-Man, and lighting should go to Hugh Vanstone for GHOST. The fact that McLane was not nominated for either of his two BRILLIANT designs this season is so sad. There are shows way more deserving that Once for the design categories. Sadly, I am in the minority in these thoughts...

[bdn223]

Posted: 5/3/12 at 1:46am

I agree Once's set does not deserve the award, I honestly think that at most the top musical will win 4 awards, there will truly be no sweeps this year which is basically what everyone is predicting with Once, it may win Once or Twice or maybe even three times but its most certainly not going to win 11 or even 7 for that matter, the design awards are going to the revivals, or I would concede Spiderman, because you cannot deny that its costumes and sets despite the rest of the show being a disaster

[bwayphreak234]

Posted: 5/3/12 at 1:52am

^ Exactly. The set design nod for Once should have gone to Nice Work, Follies, Evita, or Bonnie and Clyde.

[Jonwo]

Posted: 5/3/12 at 1:55am

I don't see a clean sweep for any show, Newsies' best bets are Book, Score, Choreography and Best Musical, would like to see Jeremy Jordan win but he's got stiff competition.

I dont think Once or Newsies will win for set design, that'll more likely go to Spider-Man or Nice Work.

[Matt2]

Posted: 5/3/12 at 2:35am

^Best book for Newsies? I personally think Once will take home that award as compensation for Newsies taking home Best Musical. Of the new musicals I think Once will win more awards overall, but Newsies will take home the top prize, along with choreography and score.

[ILOHTFAHA (Aida Man)]

Posted: 5/3/12 at 2:36am

I personally think Jeremy Jordan should win Actor in a Musical. It has been a big year him and a Tony could actually be in his future.

[bwayphreak234]

Posted: 5/3/12 at 2:38am

^ word.

[Matt2]

Posted: 5/3/12 at 3:01am

^I wonder if his relative youth and the fact that this is his first nomination will play against him. The voters may want to give the Tony to someone who they feel has paid their dues. However, he's still a front runner (and in my opinion, deservedly so). The Tonys, like all award committees, love to reward two categories of performers: the darling of the day who's just given his/her first big breakthrough performance OR a veteran who's worked hard for years and "paid his/her dues." We'll see which side the Tony voters take come June.

[hermajesty]

Posted: 5/3/12 at 4:19am

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Updated On: 5/3/12 at 04:19 AM

[After Eight]

Posted: 5/3/12 at 8:43am

Play:

Should win: Any Wednesday
Will win: Other Desert Cities

Musical:

Should win: New Faces of '52
Will win: Once

[bjh2114]

Posted: 5/3/12 at 9:02am

I highly disagree about Once not deserving Best Lighting. I think it had the best lighting of any other musical this season by far. It's subtle, yet dramatic. The Ghost lighting is absolutely terrible. It's in your face, hit you over the head with a frying pan lighting. And the projections (equally terrible) don't count as lighting. They count as set design.

For set design, I think Once deserves that too. I think Spiderman's set, while massive, manages to look really cheap. All of the cardboard cutouts are so dumb looking.

Also, you really think Linda Lavin will beat out Nina Arianda? I'm not so sure.

[madbrian]

Posted: 5/3/12 at 9:10am

I guess I'm surprised you're not predicting PSH will win over Conden.

[WhizzerMarvin]

Posted: 5/3/12 at 10:09am

I think one of Once's most assured wins will be Best Book. There's a lot more than, "I'm Czech..." Newsies' book is a mess and one of the weaker aspects of the show.

[Sauja]

Posted: 5/3/12 at 10:12am

I'll bite.

Best Play
Should win: Clybourne Park
Will win: Other Desert Cities

Best Musical
Should win: Once
Will win: Newsies

Best Revival of a Play
Should and will win: Death of a Salesman

Best Revival of a Musical
Should and will win: Follies

Best Book of a Musical
Should and will win: Once. (I just don't see them giving it to Harvey this time. If Beane wins, I will punch my television)


Best Score
Should win: One Man, Two Guvnors
Will win: Newsies

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
Should win: James Corden
Will win: Philip Seymour Hoffman

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
Should and will win: Nina Arianda (God, this one's hard. Arianda, Channing, and Lavin gave the three best performances of the year, in my mind. I give the dazzling new star the edge and suspect voters will as well.)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
Should win: Danny Burstein
Will win: Steve Kazee (or...I don't know. This category is also crazy strong. I wouldn't be surprised if Jordan or Burstein took it. Lewis is amazing, but I don't think he has it. And I can't see Raines pulling enough votes over Burstein. One of those rare categories where I'll be happy no matter who gets it)


Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Should and will win: Audra McDonald (Maxwell would have it if the show was open now, I suspect. But McDonald has star power, likeability, and is still in the role here. I think that gives her the edge, even though she already has a mantel full of Tonys.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
Should win: Jeremy Shamos
Will win: Christian Borle or Andrew Garfield. I can't decide who I think takes it!


Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
Should and will win: Judith Light (this one I really won't be happy with any other result. not that the others are bad. I just think Light so deserves it)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
Should win: David Alan Grier
Will win: Michael McGrath

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
Should win: Anne Nathan in Once. But she isn't nominated so...Jayne Houdyshell
Will win: Judy Kaye


Best Scenic Design of a Play
Should win: Mark Thompson, One Man, Two Guvnors
Will win: Donyale Werle, Peter and the Starcatcher (and I'm already mad about it)

Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Should win: Bob Crowley, Once
Will win: George Tsypin, Spider-Man Turn Off The Dark (I actually do think they'll take this one but feel crazy typing it)

Best Costume Design of a Play
Should win: Mark Thompson, One Man, Two Guvnors
Will win: Paul Tazewell, A Streetcar Named Desire


Best Costume Design of a Musical
Should win: Gregg Barnes, Follies
Will win: Eiko Ishioka, Spider-Man Turn Off The Dark


Best Lighting Design of a Play
Should and will win: Brian MacDevitt, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman


Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Should win: Natasha Katz, Once
Will win: Hugh Vanstone, Ghost the Musical

Best Choreography
Should win: Steven Hoggett, Once (between this, Black Watch, and American Idiot, I think he's one of the strongest creative minds in theater today)
Will win: Christopher Gattelli, Newsies (his work is fun, but it doesn't feel special to me)


Best Direction of a Play
Should win: Pam MacKinnon, Clybourne Park
Will win: Mike Nichols, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman


Best Direction of a Musical
Should and will win: John Tiffany, Once

[ChildrenwillListen]

Posted: 5/3/12 at 10:40am

I've trained myself to not let myself get so confident about what I want to win because I will end up being angry and grouchy if it doesn't happen. That's why I stopped watching American Idol, besides the fact that American Idol has started to suck over the years

[Mister Matt]

Posted: 5/3/12 at 10:41am

I will say the only thing I liked about Spider-Man was the scenic design and I wouldn't at all be surprised if it wins. The only thing that might hold it back is resentment towards the injuries during the lengthy rehearsal and preview periods.

As for score, I have no idea what the music from the plays sound like, but for the two nominated musicals, I'd definitely vote for Bonnie & Clyde over the new material for Newsies.

[willep]

Posted: 5/3/12 at 10:53am

^ Yeah, but I feel like voters are going to have a hard time only listening to/judging the NEW material in Newsies. I don't know, maybe I'm wrong.

[After Eight]

Posted: 5/3/12 at 10:57am

Children,

Your attitude is a good one. It's best not to invest oneself so emotionally in these awards/nominations. It was painful to read some people's obvious distress over the latter. However justified it was, it was unjustified, because justice plays no part in these things anyway, nor is it ever served.

The best thing to do is to observe the whole thing with detachment, or better yet, to follow what the song tells us, to "live and laugh at it all."

[bdn223]

Posted: 5/3/12 at 10:58am

.

Best Play
Should win: other ldessert cities
Will win: Possibly PETER AND THE STAR CATCHER if Newsies doesn't win musical otherwise OTHER DESSERT CITIES
Should have been nominated:ONE MAN TWO GUVNORS

Best Musical
Should win: Once or Newsies
Will win: Whoever wins the drama desk and outer critics circle
Should have been nominated:LJ

Best Revival of a Play
Should and will win: Death of a Salesman
Should have been nominated:N/a

Best Revival of a Musical
Should and will win: Follies
Should have been nominated N/a

Best Book of a Musical
Should win: dcb for LJ being the most orginal book if the season
Will win: once if it doesn't win best musical otherwise Harvy for Newsies, BUT since those two may cancel each other out Joe Dipietro for Nice WORK
Should have been nominated: PORGY JUst for the amount of work it took

Best Score
Should win: newsies
Will win: Newsies
Should have been nominated: Lysistrata jones

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
Should win: James Corden or Phillip seymor Hoffman
Will win: tie between jc and Psh
Should have been nominated: Hugh Dancy

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
Should win: all of them
Will win: I honestly don't know, probably not Cynthia Nioxon though
Should have been nominated: Tyne daly

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
Should win: Danny Burstein for his career and Jeremy Jorday for being about to carry two shows on his back in one season
Will win: Steve Kazee (I don't want to sound like an ass, but he has the sympathy factor with his mother passing away less than a month ago so we know his speech will be a tear jerker)
Should have been nominated:Jermey Jordan Bonnie and Clyde


Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Should win: Jan Maxwell (and she might take it after the Hollywood disaster of 2010, where she was looked over for two awards in the same season)
will win: Audra McDonald
Should have been nominated: KARA LINDSAY but she shouldn't be leading

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
Should win: Tom Edden
Will win: Christian Borle
Should have been nominated: use the rule of 3 to nominate the company of PETER AND THE Starcatcher

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
Should win: Linda Edmund
will win: Judith Light
Should have been nominated:N/a


Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
Should win: PHILLIP Boykin
Will win: Michael McGrath
Should have been nominated possibly Andrew Keenan Bolger, but honestly I am ok with this catagory

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
Should win: KARA LINDSAY, but she isn't nominated
Will win: Judy Kaye
Should have been nominated: KARA LINDSAY(why the **** did Disney have to get greedy and out her into leading she would have one for sure if she was in this ) or LINDSAY NICOLE CHAMBERS,or MELLISA VAN DER SCHIFF for being the only pleasant thing in b&c

Best Scenic Design of a Play
Should win: Peter and the Starcatcher
Will win: Donyale Werle, Peter and the Starcatcher
Should have been nominated:N/a

Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Should win: Spiderman
Will win: Once or Newsies honestly Newsies is more creative using 3 fire escapes to create several different locations in NYC, while the only inventive thing about once'S set is the giant mirror in the back of the bar that manes you realize christin millioti is actually playing piano
Should have been nominated:Follies

Best costume design of a Play
Should AND WILL win: PETER AND THE STARCATCHER
Should have been nominated:N/a

Best costume design of a Musical:
Should win: Spiderman
Will win:follies
Should have been nominated:N/a

Best LIGHTING Design of a Play
Should win: PETER AMD THE STARCATCHER
Will win: PETER AND THE STARCATCHER


Best LIGHTING Design of a Musical
Should win: Gregg Barnes, Follies
Will win: FOLLIES
Should have been nominated:LJ


Best SOUND Design of a Play
Should and will win PEter and the STARCATCHER


Best Sound Design of a Musical
Should win: Natasha Katz, Once
Will win: ONCE
Should have been nominated:LYSSIE JONES

Best Choreography
Should win: NEWSIES!!!!!
Will Win NEWSIES!!! It is honestly the most amazing choreography I have seen on Broadway, me and my friends were actually discussing how it is like the WEST SIDE STORY of our times
Should have been nominated:Follies

Best Direction of a Play
Should win: PETER AND THE STARCHER
Will win: I DON'T KNOW IT'S TO TOUGH TO DECIDE


Best Direction of a Musical
Should win:Once
Will win: once
Should have been nominated:Follies

Best Orchestrations
Should win:once
Will win: once
Should hAve been nominated FOLLIES

[Mister Matt]

Posted: 5/3/12 at 11:02am

Yeah, but I feel like voters are going to have a hard time only listening to/judging the NEW material in Newsies.

I don't know why it would be hard to do, but if the voters choose to judge Newsies on its entire score, then Once and Nice Work should be nominated for score as well. I do think the previous material is the best thing about the score for Newsies, but I'm not fond of the orchestrations or musical direction.

[SonofRobbieJ]

Posted: 5/3/12 at 11:05am

Steve Kazee literally (and I do mean that word literally) made me cry every time he sang in ONCE. His voice, his performance and his body language created something profoundly beautiful. If he were to win (and this is a category where I'd be happy with pretty much anyone winning), it would not be for the 'dead mom' factor. It would be because he gave one of the most deeply felt and beautifully sung performances I've ever experienced.

I do, however, think FOLLIES should win over PORGY AND BESS.

[After Eight]

Posted: 5/3/12 at 2:02pm

"Steve Kazee literally (and I do mean that word literally) made me cry every time he sang in ONCE. "

How could have made you cry figuratively?