Final Tony Predictions

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 6/10/11 at 6:50pm

Two days away, so let's have at it. Who will win, should win, and should have been nominated (if anyone).

BEST MUSICAL
Will Win: Book of Mormon (nothing will come close to challenging it)
Should Win: Mormon
Should Have Been Nominated: na

BEST PLAY
Will Win: War Horse (voters will reward spectacle over substance)
Should Win: Good People
Nominated: Bengal Tiger

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
Will Win: Anything Goes (critics and audience members have fallen in love with this way more than "How To Succeed...")
Should Win: Nothing
Nominated: na

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
Will Win: Normal Heart (strong production of a moving play=Tony gold)
Should Win: Normal Heart
Nominated: Born Yesterday

BEST ACTOR (MUSICAL)
Will Win: Josh Gad (Butz has gained a lot of momentum as has Tony Sheldon, and Gad and Rannells could cancel each other out, but I still think they reward the laughable lovable performance from the surefire best musical winner)
Should Win: Gad
Nominated: na

BEST ACTRESS (MUSICAL)
Will Win: Sutton Foster (people have loved her Reno Sweeney in this weak category)
Should Win: Either Donna Murphy or Patina Miller
Nominated: na

BEST FEATURED ACTOR (MUSICAL)
Will Win: Adam Godley (Scottsboro Boys cancel each other out, most people can't seem to remember who O'Malley was, and John Laroquette wasn't nearly as loved as a lot of people seem to think, making Godley the surprise default winner)
Should Win: Godley
Nominated: Michael Potts (Mormon)

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS (MUSICAL)
Will Win: Nikki M. James (Benanti has gained enough momentum to be considered the frontrunner, but I think more voters will have seen Mormon than Women on the Verge and will reward the more recent and still running James)
Should Win: James
Nominated: Nicole Parker (People in the Picture)

BEST ACTOR (PLAY):
Will Win: Mark Rylance (brilliant tour de force will be rewarded here with a slight chance of an upset by Mantello)
Should Win: Rylance
Nominated: na

BEST ACTRESS (PLAY):
Will Win: Frances McDormand (this comes down to her and Nina Arianda, and I think they reward the veteran here)
Should Win: McDormand
Nominated: na

BEST FEATURED ACTOR (PLAY):
Will Win: Yul Vazquez (John Benjamin Hickey could definitely take this, but Vazquez has gained a lot of momentum and could be Motherf***er's sole winner)
Should Win: Mackenzie Crook
Nominated: Lee Pace (Normal Heart)

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS (PLAY):
Will Win: Ellen Barkin (while there's a lot of buzz about Edie Falco, I still think Barkin's Act Two monologue will carry her to Tony gold)
Should Win: Barkin
Nominated: Estelle Parsons (Good People)

BEST DIRECTION (MUSICAL):
Will Win: Casey Nicholaw and Trey Parker (almost as safe a bet as Mormon for best musical)
Should Win: Nicholaw and Parker
Nominated: na

BEST DIRECTION (PLAY):
Will Win: Marianne Elliott and Tom Norris (Best Play and Best Director of a Play have matched each other 6 straight years and 9 of the past 11; that won't change here)
Should Win: Daniel Sullivan
Nominated: Ian Dickson (Jerusalem)

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY:
Will Win: Kathleen Marshall (Tony voters love her and they loved her big tap numbers here)
Should Win: Casey Nicholaw
Nominated: Anthony Van Laast (Sister Act)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Will Win: Mormon (the want to reward Kander and Ebb won't be enough to trump the Mormons here)
Should Win: Mormon
Nominated: na

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL:
Will Win: Mormon (no real other competition here)
Should Win: Mormon
Nominated: Women on the Verge...

BEST ORCHESTRATIONS:
Will Win: Mormon (will get caught up in the Mormon craze)
Should Win: Scottsboro Boys
Nominated: Anything Goes

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN (PLAY):
Will Win: War Horse (seems obvious, but Bengal Tiger could surprise)
Should Win: War Horse
Nominated: na

BEST COSTUME DESIGN (PLAY):
Will Win: Importance of Being Earnest (really pretty wide open, but people loved Earnest and they'll want to give it something)
Should Win: Merchant of Venice
Nominated: Brief Encounter

BEST SOUND DESIGN (PLAY):
Will Win: War Horse (easy win here for the biggest spectacle of the bunch)
Should Win: War Horse
Nominated: na

BEST SCENIC DESIGN (PLAY):
Will Win: War Horse (again, biggest spectacle of the bunch)
Should Win: Jerusalem
Nominated: Normal Heart

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN (MUSICAL):
Will Win: Mormon (Scottsboro could pull through, but I think voters get caught up in the Mormon craze again)
Should Win: How To Succeed...
Nominated: na

BEST COSTUME DESIGN (MUSICAL):
Will Win: Priscilla (should easily and deservedly win even with the Mormon love)
Should Win: Priscilla
Nominated: na

BEST SOUND DESIGN (MUSICAL):
Will Win: Mormon (again, caught up in a near sweep)
Should Win: Scottsboro
Nominated: na

BEST SCENIC DESIGN (MUSICAL):
Will Win: Mormon (again, caught up in a near sweep)
Should Win: Mormon
Nominated: Sister Act